Why Don’t They Want You Talking About Birth Rates?

CChris Williamson
육아(영유아~청소년)임신/출산결혼/가정생활

Transcript

00:00:00- Why is it the case that having this conversation
00:00:03is so unpopular on the internet
00:00:05and immediately gets thrown the right wing,
00:00:09conservative, misogyny, the fascism?
00:00:13Why do those arguments get thrown around so quickly?
00:00:16- I think people understand correctly
00:00:21that there can be, there certainly can be,
00:00:25and often in fact, there is a tension between
00:00:29sustainable fertility rates and the gender egalitarianism
00:00:34that I think most of us cherish, right?
00:00:37That like, I'm not like a radical left feminist,
00:00:41but like, I do want my wife to be able to vote
00:00:43and own property and have the right to like,
00:00:46the police hear her out if I'm beating her or something.
00:00:48Like I'm, you know, like little e egalitarian in that sense.
00:00:53And a lot of people fear, very sincerely,
00:00:58they say, well, I do worry about low fertility,
00:01:00but I would never say so publicly because, you know,
00:01:06I stand with women and the pronatalists
00:01:09want to force women to stay barefoot
00:01:11and pregnant in the kitchen.
00:01:12And I mean, I'm sympathetic to that.
00:01:16And unfortunately, some varieties of pronatalism
00:01:18have tended to play into that.
00:01:20The reality, and there's genuine tension.
00:01:24I mean, it is true that a lot of the most sexist countries
00:01:26in the world have the highest birth rates.
00:01:28It is true that within society,
00:01:30people with more traditional gender attitudes
00:01:32have higher birth rates.
00:01:34These are all true things.
00:01:35There's real tension between certain gender models
00:01:38and high fertility.
00:01:40Now, does it have to be intrinsic tension?
00:01:42Can we find a way through it to the other side?
00:01:44I hope so.
00:01:45And I think that's what you all have talked about as well,
00:01:46is that you want your progressive friends to be having kids
00:01:49so that their values can survive in the future too.
00:01:54And so I think there's a lot of people who feel,
00:01:58rightly or wrongly, feel trapped
00:02:00between two things they want, okay?
00:02:02They don't love the idea of a low fertility future,
00:02:04but they also feel like they don't have an option
00:02:07other than to like, well, if a low fertility future
00:02:09is the only way to protect the fact that I'm a woman
00:02:13and I basically want to have rights,
00:02:15then screw fertility, who cares?
00:02:18Or trust that it'll get solved somehow,
00:02:22just don't think about it.
00:02:23So, and I think on some level,
00:02:26pronatalists have not always done a great job,
00:02:29and I probably count myself in this to some extent,
00:02:31of trying to communicate that yes,
00:02:36right now, feminism broadly construed
00:02:40as pretty strongly negatively correlated with fertility.
00:02:43It is, on almost any metric.
00:02:45But we don't know that it has to be.
00:02:50We don't know that there's not a future version
00:02:53of feminism that's pronatal.
00:02:55We don't know that such an ideology couldn't be invented.
00:02:58The problem is, most of the people who self-identify
00:03:01as feminists won't even try.
00:03:03So they won't even try to come up with a version
00:03:05of the ideology that's pronatal.
00:03:07So, and there are people who are,
00:03:09like Leah Sargent has a great book on this where she's trying.
00:03:13So I would say, I agree with what a lot of you are saying,
00:03:20but I'm a little more sympathetic to people who feel
00:03:24between a rock and a hard place.
00:03:26- Well, I think the other point here is that,
00:03:28it's obvious what you need to give up now,
00:03:30and it's not obvious what the costs will be in future.
00:03:33And for the most part, you're not gonna pay them, right?
00:03:35And if you're not intending on having kids,
00:03:37or if fewer people around you are intending on having kids,
00:03:40then you're not even attached to people
00:03:42who might be having to pay them.
00:03:43So it's having to give up something that you want
00:03:45in order for something that you're being told
00:03:47that future people need.
00:03:49We're not good in a society of doing that at the moment,
00:03:51at the old staving off of the very gratification.
00:03:54- Imagine you really value gender egalitarianism,
00:03:56and then you have daughters,
00:03:57and then you learn that the future is going to be one where
00:04:00like all the crazy far right people had all the babies
00:04:04and they're gonna outvote you,
00:04:05and now your daughters live out Handmaid's Tale.
00:04:07Okay, like this, as silly as that sounds
00:04:09to like my rational brain,
00:04:11I personally know people who really think
00:04:13that's what's going to happen.
00:04:14That any kid they have is just going to be
00:04:16like governed by zealots.
00:04:18And so they're like, well, I don't want that for my kid.
00:04:20I'm not going to have-
00:04:20- Yeah, but if feminists stop having kids-
00:04:22- I know.
00:04:23- There won't be no feminists left.
00:04:24- This is why I'm like, be the change you wish,
00:04:26only you can prevent forest fires.
00:04:28- This is the gap, the mean change,
00:04:30the mean children by ideology.
00:04:32Conservatives at 1.67,
00:04:35which has actually gone up since the 1980s,
00:04:38and liberals from 1.29, which was nearly the same,
00:04:411.44 to 1.29, 1980 conservative to liberal,
00:04:45to now 1.67 to 0.87.
00:04:49So yeah.
00:04:50- It seems to be the case from well put together surveys
00:04:55that let's say 90% ish of people at some point in life
00:04:59either have or want kids.
00:05:01- Yeah.
00:05:02- That's not all right wingers.
00:05:0390% is pretty much everybody.
00:05:07I think the issue here is that the left
00:05:11have found it more challenging because of the frictions,
00:05:15with some of their traditional beliefs
00:05:18to come up with a narrative here that enables them
00:05:21to come up with some form of voice.
00:05:23And I think people on the right,
00:05:25and I will say also, I'm not pro-natalist.
00:05:27That surprises a lot of people.
00:05:29I'm a researcher.
00:05:30I call myself pan-natalist.
00:05:32And a pan-natalist is someone who supports people
00:05:36to have the kids they want to have,
00:05:37but also respects people who choose not to.
00:05:40- Oh, we do too.
00:05:41It's great.
00:05:42- Okay, I think that's pan-natalism.
00:05:43- I would call that pro-natalism, but-
00:05:44- Yeah, no, we only want people who like kids to have kids.
00:05:47- I think pro-natalism, to me,
00:05:49is interpreted rightly or wrongly
00:05:51as people who would encourage others to have kids.
00:05:56And I would encourage people to think about it.
00:05:58I don't know if that's a new-
00:05:59- That is a fetish on the left.
00:06:00That is all these women who'd be like,
00:06:01"Oh, Mr. Trump, don't send me
00:06:02"to the Mar-a-Lago breeding pens."
00:06:05Why are they wearing those "Handmaid's Tale" costumes?
00:06:07'Cause it is, it's hot.
00:06:09When you look at what women read in romance novels,
00:06:12"Don't breed me, sir."
00:06:14This is, it's not real.
00:06:16No one is asking progressive women to have kids.
00:06:18When you look at far-right conservative men
00:06:21who are marrying women,
00:06:22they're marrying women from Latin America.
00:06:25They're marrying women from Eastern Europe.
00:06:26They're not marrying progressive white women.
00:06:29There's that "Return to Land" colony in the Ozarks.
00:06:33It's for whites only,
00:06:34and they have to keep saying to the men,
00:06:35"Sorry, you have to actually marry a white woman
00:06:38"if you want to come here."
00:06:39And they can't get any men
00:06:40who are far-right conservative white nationalists
00:06:42who have married white women
00:06:44because they're not there.
00:06:45I'm just saying, this is fake.
00:06:47This whole like, "Pronatalism, we want you to have kids."
00:06:49No, don't have kids.
00:06:51If you want kids, have them,
00:06:52but otherwise you can just not inherit the future, all right?
00:06:55Because they've screwed it.
00:06:57They've screwed it.
00:06:57This is a toxic culture.
00:06:58We have to wash our hands of it.
00:06:59We have to take to the stars and leave them behind.
00:07:01That's it.
00:07:02So I think, so I would, what you call pannatalism.
00:07:06Yeah, I would, that's how I would describe pronatalism, okay?
00:07:09I don't think pronatalism means
00:07:11forcing people to have unwanted children.
00:07:12I think it means pronatalism, pro meaning in favor of,
00:07:17natal meaning births.
00:07:18It means you're in favor of births.
00:07:20In practice, I would say you're a pronatalist
00:07:22if you support actually doing things
00:07:24that helps people actually have more kids.
00:07:26- I think the problem with that, Simone,
00:07:28is that it's all well and good kind of victim blaming people
00:07:32and saying, "You believe in ideology that's self-defeating.
00:07:35"Because of your belief in it,
00:07:36"you have been psy-opt or gaslit into not wanting something
00:07:41"or having a life that doesn't permit you to have this thing,
00:07:46"despite the fact that 90% of women have or want kids."
00:07:52So it seems to me that I understand
00:07:56if you've been in the trenches
00:07:57as you and your husband have for a long time,
00:07:59that you go, all right, I'm fucking done.
00:08:02I can't, the project to try and change hearts and minds,
00:08:05I've kind of lost faith in that.
00:08:07I get it.
00:08:08I understand why you might be exhausted at doing that.
00:08:10But that is condemning a huge swath of women
00:08:14who are left of center.
00:08:16- And men.
00:08:16- And men.
00:08:17Yeah, of course.
00:08:18Because for each, you know, the two to tango.
00:08:20Like you are condemning those people
00:08:23to kind of be at the mercy of an ideology
00:08:25that you think is bad.
00:08:27And I don't know, I would like to think
00:08:30that we can try and sort of stir the pot
00:08:32to bring some of the silt up and go,
00:08:34"Hey, maybe what you believe is good in many ways
00:08:39"for the world, but also perhaps it's got some side effects
00:08:42"that even the people that are espousing it
00:08:45"aren't going to embody."
00:08:46Like these people are endorsing beliefs
00:08:48that they don't embody and they're leaving you behind
00:08:50and it would be important to get you on site.
00:08:52One of the things I worry about if you say like,
00:08:54"Hey, if you're on the left
00:08:55"and you don't think that kids are good, go fuck yourself
00:08:58"'cause my kids are going to inherit the earth."
00:09:00Like I get it, but that's not actually what would be true
00:09:05if you were to continue to try and do the hearts
00:09:08and minds change thing.
00:09:10And again, for every step that you take forward,
00:09:13there's 10 people saying you're trying to take rights away
00:09:17for handmade stuff, et cetera, et cetera, et cetera.
00:09:20And I get why that would be exhausting,
00:09:22but I think trying to work out how to bring people into this,
00:09:27because if you really care about birth rates overall,
00:09:30you should be trying to get as big of a bucket as possible
00:09:32to scoop everybody up in.
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Key Takeaway

Modern fertility declines are driven by a perceived tension between gender egalitarianism and sustainable birth rates, resulting in a widening ideological gap where liberals average 0.87 children compared to 1.67 for conservatives.

Highlights

  • A survey-based estimate shows that approximately 90% of people desire or already have children at some point in their lives.

  • Conservative birth rates increased from 1.44 in 1980 to 1.67 today, while liberal rates dropped from 1.29 to 0.87 in the same period.

  • Sexist countries and individuals with traditional gender attitudes maintain the highest birth rates globally.

  • Feminism broadly construed correlates negatively with fertility on almost every measurable metric.

  • The birth rate gap between political ideologies has widened significantly, with liberals now averaging fewer than one child per person.

Timeline

Tension between Egalitarianism and Fertility

  • Conversations about birth rates often face immediate accusations of misogyny or fascism due to historical associations with traditionalism.
  • A genuine tension exists between sustainable fertility rates and modern gender egalitarianism.
  • Countries with the highest birth rates often exhibit the lowest levels of gender equality.
  • Fear that pronatalism requires women to forfeit rights prevents progressive individuals from engaging with the topic.

Public discourse on birth rates is restricted by the sincere fear that increasing fertility requires a return to traditional gender roles. Data confirms that sexist societies and individuals with traditional attitudes currently have higher birth rates. This creates a perceived choice for women between having rights and having children, leading many to prioritize their autonomy over fertility concerns.

The Widening Ideological Birth Rate Gap

  • Feminist ideology currently lacks a specific pronatalist framework to encourage childbearing while maintaining equality.
  • Liberal birth rates fell from 1.29 in 1980 to 0.87 today.
  • Conservative birth rates rose from 1.44 to 1.67 over the last four decades.
  • The future political landscape will be shaped by the children of those who prioritize high fertility.

The ideological divide in fertility has reached a critical point where conservatives are producing children at nearly double the rate of liberals. While 90% of the population generally wants children, the left struggles to find a narrative that reconciles their values with parenthood. This demographic shift suggests a future where the values of high-fertility groups will naturally outvote and replace those of low-fertility groups.

Pannatalism and the Future of Advocacy

  • Pannatalism supports those who want children while respecting the choice of those who do not.
  • Pronatalism is often misinterpreted as a movement to force unwanted births rather than a support system for desired ones.
  • Abandoning the attempt to convince progressives to have children effectively condemns their ideology to extinction.
  • Successful birth rate advocacy requires a broad approach that addresses the frictions within various belief systems.

Effective advocacy focuses on removing the obstacles that prevent the 90% of people who want children from having them. Labeling fertility issues as an ideological failure of the left risks alienating a massive segment of the population that still desires family life. A sustainable solution requires creating a version of pronatalism that appeals to all sectors of society rather than just those with traditional values.

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