How Elon Achieves the Impossible - Eric Jorgenson

English
CChris Williamson
경영/리더십전기차/친환경차창업/스타트업주식 투자우주/천문컴퓨터/소프트웨어

Transcript

00:00:00How many copies of the navalmanac have you sold now is tough to know but I think we're coming
00:00:04up on 2 million. How's that feel? I'm still the word I like to use is gobsmacked like I really
00:00:11thought I was doing fan service for a few thousand naval nerds and the fact that that's like 40
00:00:16languages and millions of people and we've given away a few million more right like I don't even
00:00:20really know oh so that's how many were sold because it was available for free through the website yeah
00:00:24which is another like 5 million plus really hard to track. I think it's my most suggested book when
00:00:31people say where should I start with personal development essentialism by Greg McEwen or the
00:00:36navalmanac. That's incredible and that's I mean I had no idea how many people were going to resonate
00:00:41with it and recommend it and you know I think the highest compliment a gift the highest compliment
00:00:46a book can receive is to be gifted and so much of what we read comes from what's recommended
00:00:52like how often you see an ad for a book and buy it like almost ever yeah the bars are too high yeah
00:00:56and the subtitle of this new one is a guide to purpose and success about Elon why pick that why
00:01:04purpose specifically? It was it's emergent I mean when I write these books I start with
00:01:09millions and millions of words of source material everything they've ever shared publicly and I try
00:01:13to figure out like what is the essence of the person what is the thing that is most special
00:01:17about them that anybody can learn from and we all know that Elon is like massively productive.
00:01:24I feel like the question everybody's asking is kind of like how the hell did this happen like
00:01:27how does he get so much done but what I didn't realize until way into the process is that purpose
00:01:34was the other pillar so I knew I wanted to know like how does he win but I didn't know to the
00:01:39extent that purpose was a big part of why he wins and that is actually he has some really incredible
00:01:45answers for what do I do what's important how do I choose what's important. Yeah I think everyone
00:01:52works and just assumes tactics raw tactics yeah but if there's something bigger driving that
00:01:56Teal says about Elon he seems to know something about risk that the rest of us do not what do
00:02:04you think that thing is? Yeah I mean I think Elon is risk on like he takes risks that he shouldn't
00:02:10take he's inherently biased towards risk but the number of times that that pays off I think reveals
00:02:16and puts in Teal's context like Teal is a risk manager and Elon is a risk taker and when you
00:02:22combine that with purpose the fact that Elon is on these missions he's trying to accomplish something
00:02:26and he almost doesn't care how much risk it takes he'll just keep taking chances and keep taking
00:02:32chances until he breaks through and he's got this amazing quote failure is irrelevant unless it's
00:02:40catastrophic and I think that's a really good way to sort of explain that attitude towards risk of
00:02:46like I just don't care how low my chances are I don't care how long the odds are I'm just going to
00:02:50keep going until I die because this is important enough to keep working on. And that explains why
00:02:55the purpose piece is crucial because that's what would keep you pushing through. Yes there's so
00:03:00many times that he has done things that seem insane from like a financial motivation point of view or
00:03:06I'm trying to build a business or it is because he's driven by these massive purposes and he has
00:03:11this risk tolerance and the combination of those things I think is what you know pushes him like
00:03:17these two opportunities Tesla and SpaceX being the biggest we're on nobody's radar he looked absurd
00:03:22when he undertook them and he put hundreds of millions of dollars on the line to achieve these
00:03:27things because he was purpose driven even though the odds were long and the risk was high. Is he
00:03:33that singular of an individual? Obviously SpaceX impressive, Tesla impressive, Doge kind of cool,
00:03:40being on stage, Trump campaign, Twitter ex rah rah you know how just how impressive is he or how
00:03:48singular is he as an individual? I think he's pretty singular like do you not? Yeah I do but a lot of
00:03:54people that are detractors have found a way to say actually it's more to do with leverage and
00:04:01ridiculous risk tolerance and just sort of blowing through the boundaries that other people wouldn't,
00:04:05it's to do with lack of scruples and being able to push through ethics that other people might
00:04:14find squirrely. Where do you see the big competitive advantages for him coming from? I think he's the
00:04:22greatest living entrepreneur, hard stop and maybe the greatest of all time. The fact that he did
00:04:30Tesla and SpaceX which are both, would both be singular accomplishments and put him on like top
00:04:3610 if not Mount Rushmore. The fact that he did them both at the same time is unbelievable as after
00:04:43PayPal and after Zip2 as a young young guy like and then just like sort of on the side XAI, boring
00:04:50company, Neuralink, like Doge if you want to include that as like a project. Absolutely singular, I mean
00:04:59and lots of game left right like he's only 55 not quite like he might have 20 more years.
00:05:05Like where does this go in 20 more years? It's unbelievable. I mean the combination of traits
00:05:12that I think he has and this is not to like I know that I will be accused like through this book and
00:05:17this episode and everything of like lionizing and overlooking the bad traits that you listed and
00:05:22there are plenty like there's dark sides to every advantage but he's got like the intensity of David
00:05:28Goggins like just raw. If not the physique. Yeah not quite the physique. Or the skin tone.
00:05:34There are many differences between Elon Musk and David Goggins. Yeah. But he's got the intensity
00:05:40of David Goggins, the sort of unconventional but natural physical brilliance of Richard Feynman
00:05:44and then the like I like Napoleon for strategic brilliance and bias to action and just like will
00:05:52to win and when you combine those things absolutely singular. It would be like if Zuckerberg had also
00:05:59started Google like I feel like that's kind of the order of magnitude thing and like started Google
00:06:04and Facebook in parallel. I mean SpaceX I think when it goes public this will be more obvious to
00:06:09people but he will have almost founded but certainly funded, led and driven two of the top 10 companies
00:06:16in the world if not two of the most important companies in the world in parallel at the same time
00:06:20while doing a bunch of other shit and having 14 kids. How? Okay that is that is pretty singular.
00:06:28After a few million words of looking through his life what it is that he's said and done
00:06:34what is the what are the component parts of his success what are the biggest drivers for how he's
00:06:39been so productive? I think there's a few and I think the thing that people miss is the combination
00:06:44of those factors. So I think people talk a lot about and it's correct to talk about the bias towards
00:06:50or the the intense urgency towards the limiting factor right. He's always looking for the bottleneck
00:06:56and attacking the bottleneck. He works with maniacal urgency those are the words he uses
00:07:00and instills in people all around him. There is also this ability to sort of think from first
00:07:06principles has become this like keyword that he talks about and that he has a bunch of great
00:07:12examples for but when you combine all of those things it's not a 10 percent or a 50 percent
00:07:18improvement it is like a two order of magnitude improvement. If you are working on the right thing
00:07:22with the right vision at the right time immediately all the time you're not twice as productive you're
00:07:27a thousand times more productive and then you do that for 30 years 40 years and the the way that
00:07:34sort of head start accrues and compounds and the way the leverage builds on itself and the way the
00:07:41allies show up and the way that capital piles in behind you and the way that wins turn into
00:07:45additional wins and then you he has this sort of mystique now that people rightly criticize as a
00:07:50mystique like it feels unreal and it feels like people don't critique it but he hasn't lost like
00:07:59and that becomes self-perpetuating. That was when he put the Tesla bonus structure in place
00:08:08for himself yeah the trillion dollar compensation package yeah yeah that there's a lot of criticism
00:08:14that was thrown around like this is ridiculous what an insane amount of money no one person is
00:08:18supposed to do that but his pushback was well look at what I need to do in order to be able
00:08:25to achieve that can you just explain like why that was so ridiculous and what it constituted yeah this
00:08:30is the second time he's done it actually um so he had an insane all or nothing like I will make zero
00:08:37dollars unless I 10x Tesla I don't remember the exact number but he had he had some number of
00:08:42years to like turn Tesla into a massive unprecedented success and everybody said it was absurd
00:08:47but the shareholders were all kind of like all right we'll vote for it what do we have to lose
00:08:50like if he doesn't do it we don't pay him yep and he achieved this impossible bar and then these and
00:08:57then the whole Delaware court thing happened where people were like suing him because trying to like
00:09:01retract that money and it's a whole that's a whole mess that like I'm not qualified to tell the story
00:09:06of in great detail but it worked and he did the impossible and he has been doing the impossible
00:09:11over and over again and so when he comes and says I think I can take Tesla from a one trillion dollar
00:09:16company to a 10 trillion dollar company and you don't have to pay me anything unless I do but if I
00:09:20do maybe throw me a trillion dollars like who is that hurting like it's helping all the shareholders
00:09:27who own it they agreed to it it's supposed to be impossible right like it's all upside um but he's
00:09:37made all these impossible leaps before not always right but like the way he says he's like I've lost
00:09:41many battles but I've never lost a war he's never lost a company he's never missed a huge target he
00:09:46misses deadlines all the time but almost by design because he's pushing the limit so quickly yeah he
00:09:54just articulated this really well of course after I finished writing the book because he's always
00:09:58dropping new stuff but he says he chooses deadlines that he thinks has a he has a 50 chance of making
00:10:04and he's like I don't want to be making 100 of my deadlines that means they're way too conservative
00:10:09that means things will get moved things will get missed so I set a deadline that I think we have a
00:10:1450 50 chance of making and sometimes we'll be wrong sometimes we'll miss it but a lot of the time we
00:10:17will make a deadline that we didn't think was possible because we chose to be really really
00:10:22aggressive with schedules you had 69 core musk methods so let's go through some of them funny
00:10:27how that works out if we don't make stuff there is no stuff he said this on the joe rogan podcast it
00:10:34was one of a few things that hit me so hard I was like this book has to happen actually and it was
00:10:41in this era where everyone just got like just print money just send it out just like help us help us
00:10:46like looking to sort of the government as big brother to just take care of us no matter what
00:10:50even though nobody was doing any work during covid and he's like that's not how this works like if we
00:10:56are not making stuff if we're not building stuff if we're not providing services like the whole economy
00:11:00collapses like that is what holds up the money um and he's a great example I think of the bias to
00:11:08build and serve and improve things um you know the example like tesla is the only car company
00:11:14trying to drive prices down have you seen another car company lower their prices in the last 40 years
00:11:20tesla's prices have gone down yeah they're actively lowering the price on the models as they add volume
00:11:25they lower the price and as they simplify the car they lower the price um but I looked this up ford
00:11:30f-150 if you just follow inflation it used to be like five or six grand and if you just follow
00:11:35inflation it should be like 15 000 today but they're like 40 or 50 grand and feel like yes
00:11:40there's more features and more safety but like three four times more and I feel like every car company
00:11:46on earth is just trying to figure out how to charge more and as jeff bezo said like there's two kinds
00:11:50of companies companies that try to charge work hard to charge more and there's companies that work hard
00:11:53to charge less and amazon is a like we're driving cost down business and tesla is the same he says
00:11:58like if we can't figure out if we charge something it's because we can't figure out how to charge less
00:12:02because he's like the mission the purpose I want as many people as possible driving an electric car I
00:12:08want as many people as possible driving an autonomous car that is what solves the climate change problem
00:12:13that's what makes our cities quieter and cleaner and better like why not lower the price as we
00:12:17increase the volume and make it accessible to more people fear of failure is the biggest cause of
00:12:22failure yeah it's not a good one it's fucking pithy uh is fear of failure the biggest cause of failure
00:12:31not a lack of skill or understanding or foresight the way I hear that quote is it's because it kills
00:12:37something in the crib like fear of failure is why people don't even set out um yeah the far more
00:12:46people have not attempted anything than have attempted something and failed at it yeah you
00:12:50can't fail due to skill or fail due to stamina you never even try or start it yeah and any of you just
00:12:56think of like how many things you've any of us have dreamed of doing but never tried like it's 99 to 1
00:13:02with lots of things that you dream of you probably shouldn't try so fear of I guess the interesting
00:13:10small print here is it's not necessarily fear of failure it's fear of that is not worth my time I
00:13:17shouldn't be spending my time on that thing not that I could do it and it wouldn't work but if I
00:13:22did it it wouldn't be worth it I think that's a very optimistic and enlightened maybe view of why people
00:13:28rationalize not doing things that they that they do deeply want to do but for instance Elon must have
00:13:33lots of dreams that he hasn't pursued presumably unless unless he's also able to fucking program his
00:13:39own dreams it's like oh that would be cool that would be cool I mean he's like the most leveraged
00:13:44man on earth and I feel like he does indulge these random I mean the boring company was kind of a like
00:13:49sitting in traffic being like fuck this and he just picked the phone and picked up the phone called one
00:13:54of his engineers is like start making a hole start researching drilling machines I'm going to call you
00:13:58back in two hours by the way that was a 2am okay bye like that was when he did it yeah at 2am yeah
00:14:05rang one of his engineers and said it's the guy who's still running the boring company today he's
00:14:10like do it I'll call you back and then the guy comes back and says like all right I found this
00:14:14and this about the drilling machines I think they could be improved in this in this way and then he
00:14:17goes with Tesla to Tesla headquarters and is like we're gonna start digging a hole in the parking lot
00:14:22and they're like cool we think we can get permits and do it in two weeks and he's like nope move all
00:14:26the cars start right now I want to see a hole in the parking lot at midnight it's 6pm go and like
00:14:33it is that level of bias to action like I think maniacal urgency the words don't really sink in
00:14:40until you hear story after story after story of him doing something that most people take two weeks to
00:14:44do in four hours what are the most maniacal urgency stories about Elon I mean a small one that I think
00:14:50drills at home is like he was interviewing for his head of machining at a spacex uh at a spacex site
00:14:56and it was like a 20-minute interview just like tell me about your work tell me about your
00:15:01background all right you're qualified come to an agreement somebody standing behind them is like
00:15:06here's a job offer fill in the blanks sign it sign it go to work like 6pm on Saturday like time just
00:15:14doesn't exist it's irrelevant it is like the whatever is the most important thing to get done
00:15:19in this hour get it done immediately and keep going like there is no work life separation
00:15:24there is no like do it later there is like if it is the most important thing to do do it immediately
00:15:30even if it's irrelevant like there's some there's stories in the the isaacson biography of him
00:15:35ordering you call them like surges even when they don't need to be done he just he loves urgency for
00:15:40urgency search like one of these pushes of like stack the starship or build that part and so it's
00:15:46like we don't this part is not the bottleneck he's like i don't care i don't feel enough urgency for
00:15:50you like i'm giving you a deadline i don't care that it's arbitrary like i want you to feel the
00:15:55kind of urgency that i feel hard stuff like that's how we work it's basically speed training like
00:16:01you'd give to an athlete but being done out of season yeah and all the time um and and this is
00:16:07not always there are times when this has saved you know months or years or weeks or millions of
00:16:14dollars but there's also times when it's like burn people out and piss them off and cause good people
00:16:17to quit i have to imagine that the blast radius of this work rate is pretty huge that the the churn
00:16:23of people working for him is is pretty insane for sure there are some people who are who are very
00:16:28long tenured um but it also i mean i think that's part of the strategy like churning through
00:16:34relatively young brilliant engineers no work-life balance this is this is your this is your time in
00:16:40the wild of like you're gonna be here all the time here at the drop of a hat um but he's been doing
00:16:47this forever he did this paypal he decided would uh when it was before they merged but he was gonna
00:16:52launch x.com on thanksgiving weekend like and people were like that doesn't make any sense
00:16:59nobody's me paying attention everybody's with their families like don't care we're launching on sunday
00:17:02on thanksgiving i want everybody in here all the time people are like can i go see my family nope
00:17:09you're not dedicated if you're not in here working 20 hours a day trying to make this deadline it is
00:17:16it is urgency for urgency's sake all the time on everything and the people this goes back to purpose
00:17:22is like only you only get that out of people if you have this incredible mission that people feel like
00:17:27they're on that they're like yes i want to show up i want you to put the pedal down i want to be
00:17:31used for all i'm worth i want to see what i'm capable of i want to work as hard as i can with
00:17:36other brilliant people on this incredibly powerful mission and i can't do it for 40 years but i can do
00:17:40it for two or four ten does elon do any kind of self-care morning routine meditation therapy
00:17:48not that there's much evidence of which i think is interesting like the most productive man on earth
00:17:55barely sleeps like lives on his private jet works maniacally all the time uh no no discernible good
00:18:05habits from what i can tell like uh not on staining really it eats donuts like not a lot of meditation
00:18:15not a lot of introspection um just like gets up grabs his phone draws a knife and like goes to war
00:18:20every single day like that is just shiv someone i got that is the i've got a my friend b shard describes
00:18:26like operating business as a knife fight and it's like an operator who's in it like you wake up you
00:18:31have a knife off the bed stand and like you go to work and that's actually probably how it feels
00:18:36with elon yeah assume his daily routine he's like i wake up i check my phone i look for an emergency
00:18:39there's always an emergency um and sometimes if there's not he creates one how so uh this is also
00:18:46like from the isaacson book he's like there was a lot of times when there's not objectively an
00:18:52emergency but there is sufficient cause to be like we can increase the pace we can increase the pace
00:18:56like let's figure out how to create a situation that maybe gets things moving faster maybe doesn't
00:19:02but it is a bias or urgency all the time but this and i'm not advocating this like i don't live this
00:19:11way even like you you can see the recipe and not want to cook the dish um but the takeaway that i
00:19:19think that is useful and generalizable for everybody is very david goggins it's like you're capable of a
00:19:23lot more than you think and the people who are like massively orders of magnitude more productive
00:19:28are working at a pace and an intensity that is like very foreign to most people um you're a good
00:19:38example of this like i don't think people appreciate how hard you work to like do the things that you do
00:19:42and cover the amount of ground that you have to do 800 episodes in five years like you're an intense
00:19:48motherfucker like you cover a lot of ground um you work really hard to do it it's um but everybody is
00:19:55capable of ten percent more fifty percent more just like give the throttle a push and see what breaks
00:20:01might not be anything so given the lack of self-care does he care about his subjective experience the
00:20:08happiness fulfillment joy things it says um i don't think that's what he's optimizing for
00:20:17like i don't think he's a particularly happy person i don't think he even doesn't really seem to take
00:20:22joy or pride in his past accomplishments he's just always looking forward um and it's i mean i feel
00:20:29like it's a great gift to us and a burden to him right like i the people around him talk about like
00:20:34wishing that he would celebrate his accomplishments wishing he would take a break wishing he would be
00:20:38happier um but he's just on to the next onto the next and like i think when you have a glimpse in
00:20:44his childhood that makes a little more sense um how so i mean his as david center says like the
00:20:53story of the father is embedded in the story of the son um his dad was
00:20:57certainly abusive like there's verbally abusive imagine like standing there as an eight-year-old
00:21:05boy for hours while your dad like screamed in your face drill sergeant cell calls you worthless
00:21:10calls you useless calls you stupid um when elon was young he got absolute shit kicked out like
00:21:16gang stomped not like lost a fight with one guy hospitalized for a while his brother said he was
00:21:24like so swollen he was unrecognizable and his dad sided with the bullies and like called him stupid
00:21:30for picking a fight that he would lose like what does that do like that just creates this furnace
00:21:37in you that like will never stop um and so i think there's there's a lot of he's not comfortable with
00:21:44peace like he likes he is he is always at war and he's looking for the next war and that just like
00:21:49drives him always um and you know that is one part like you know is the debate between clean fuel and
00:21:56dirty fuel like which is better you know if you're if you're like mean to yourself internally you're
00:22:00like such a piece of shit i gotta i gotta get more done i can do more i can accomplish more i can be
00:22:04better versus like i'm building this great thing and i can do it and this is going to be awesome
00:22:08and people are going to love it or i'm really proud of what i've done i'm achieving this powerful
00:22:12mission and elon does both like he burns clean fuel and dirty fuel it seems he's achieving these
00:22:18these missions that are important to humanity that so many people dream of that everybody
00:22:21thought was impossible and he's got this incredible string of successes but he also has this this like
00:22:27internal angst uh i think that that seems to drive him definitely a tolerance for pain it almost
00:22:34seems like he deliberately creates suffering for himself yeah he did the uh the tiny home thing
00:22:39he sold all of his stuff at one point yeah i think may still have no possessions basically and sleeps
00:22:46on the factory floor yes um which i mean the the possessions thing was part like he's like i'm not
00:22:51i'm not like a bad billionaire like i'm a billionaire because i build valuable companies
00:22:55like i'll sell all my stuff i don't care i don't need fancy things um because people
00:22:59were like dragging me like i want i want you to understand that like i'm in it for the right
00:23:02reasons um but i'm glad you asked about sleep okay because i'm a huge personal fan of eight sleep
00:23:11if you struggle to sleep well or just want to further optimize your sleep eight sleep can help
00:23:16i got one as a surprise for my wife when we had our first baby and she wept with joy when it arrived
00:23:24on our porch it goes on your mattress just like a fitted sheet and will automatically learn your
00:23:30preferences to cool or warm your side of the bed up to 20 degrees it's got integrated sensors that
00:23:36track your sleep time sleep phases and heart rate i know enough my heart dude don't fucking tell me
00:23:45my own ad read all right with 99 accuracy eight sleep starts to warm or cool your bed before you
00:23:51even get into it that's why eight sleep has been clinically proven to increase total sleep up to
00:23:56one hour per night best of all they have a 30-day sleep trial you can try it for 29 days and if you
00:24:02don't like it they'll give you all your money back plus they ship internationally
00:24:06go to the link in the description or eight sleep dot com slash modern wisdom and use modern wisdom
00:24:13at checkout that's e i g h t sleep dot com slash modern wisdom and modern wisdom at checkout
00:24:20that was really great i really am a huge fan of eight sleep i am too there's no one that's used
00:24:24it that doesn't get completely fucking insane about it did mateo put you up to that because they've
00:24:29just got listed for 1.5 bill on the stock exchange no because this i don't know them at all i just
00:24:34actually love eight sleep and i wanted it to like i thought it would be really funny to make you well
00:24:37he's saved us from having to do the ad read a nice that's one fewer ad read that i need to do this week
00:24:42i feel like you've been working really hard i just wanted to pick up a little bit of the slack i feel
00:24:45like the guests just show up and you have to do everything that's true you need to pay for yourself
00:24:50now that's it all this isn't cheap to put on you know i know you need to pay for yourself and i have
00:24:54an authentic loving relationship with my eight sleep and elon needs one because he didn't have
00:25:00any possessions it's going to be hard oh that is that is true i wonder if they could fit it to the
00:25:03factory floor just fucking lay an eight sleep on the ground be like hey it just sort of works i guess
00:25:10yeah uh what's that story it's from the isaacson book but i think it's pretty telling what's that
00:25:15story about when he needed to do an investor meeting and the coo came in and found him like
00:25:23catatonic under his under his desk and basically had to like force him to get up yeah he was doing
00:25:30earnings call and um i think this is like 2018 this is like the end of a really long stretch of just
00:25:37like miserable stuff and i think he was in a really tough spot psychologically and he was just like
00:25:41lying on the floor um and yeah this guy to his credit like he's like has experience with
00:25:48psychological illnesses in his family and challenges and so he kind of knew what to do
00:25:54and he like went in and laid on the floor next to him it was like how you doing buddy you just
00:25:58went under the desk yeah like laid down next to him was like how you doing like i know it's hard
00:26:04i'm gonna take a couple more minutes and we gotta get up and we gotta do this do our best and um
00:26:12i it's hard like i think i think he puts himself through a lot
00:26:14like elon burns the boats and challenges himself and but he does have limits
00:26:19yeah i mean i mean if you're lying under your desk catatonic that's a limit yeah dude he uh
00:26:26in the 2008 crisis he was tallulah riley talks about him like having night terrors
00:26:30he's like sitting up all night um he's throwing up he's having like screaming nightmares um
00:26:38but that goes back to like like i don't want to live that experience but it gives you a sense of
00:26:44how far people can push themselves and how far i look the way that i see uh elon is not too
00:26:52dissimilar to the way that i see brian johnson and also david goggins which is there are people who
00:26:56will go to the 99.999th percentile of anything and everything yeah and it's useful to have them around
00:27:05because they teach you all of the lessons that you learn by going to the absolute edge but that
00:27:09doesn't mean that you should try and follow what it is that they're doing it doesn't mean that it's
00:27:13a good strategy for anybody else to do but if you're going to try and say that uh brian johnson
00:27:19going and basically being like a scout in a he's essentially the same thing as a scout in an army
00:27:25he goes up to this crazy high ridge and it's all treacherous and maybe he's gonna fall and oh my god
00:27:31and then he finds out some shit about what's over there and then comes back and tells us all
00:27:36like i don't want to be a scout and i don't want an army filled with scouts but it's fucking useful
00:27:40to have a few yeah well in particular like this scout who is like building so many things that
00:27:46benefit so many people and i think i mean all this comes back to like elon is being authentically
00:27:50himself like who he is is this like insanely driven technical genius boy who is infused with sci-fi and
00:28:00military history like dreaming of making an impact on the world um in part because of this like
00:28:06traumatic childhood he had and in part because of like it's this grand dream and grand adventure and
00:28:11um i don't think it's an insult to say is like a little bit of a hero complex of like i can
00:28:16i can do this i can make a difference i can make this huge impact on the world and thank god he did
00:28:22right like this type of person in the past would just become like a conqueror but like thanks to
00:28:27the miracle of modern capitalism and technology he's building shit that benefit all of us and we're
00:28:32gonna have this huge evolutionary leap hopefully as we go to another planet and we get to live through
00:28:38it how fucking awesome is that do not separate yourself from the pain of your decisions yeah
00:28:44this one is uh comes from like the manufacturing process and the structure of the organization but
00:28:49i think it's a very generalizable rule um this version is like you want the designers and the
00:28:55engineers and the manufacturers like they all work in the plant so they can see the downstream
00:29:00effects of the decisions that they make in the design process it's very it's very easy to try
00:29:06to break your feedback loop and not sense when you're doing something harmful or even not missing
00:29:12an opportunity to do something great that could benefit you i think that uh the idea of not
00:29:22insulating yourself from the outcomes of your decisions uh is probably a good i mean there
00:29:26has to be some times where he just gets other people to do stuff on his behalf but i know what's
00:29:30that you you have to locate physically move yourself to wherever the problem is immediately
00:29:34yes basically the same rule yeah and in the on the production line it's like walk to the red there's
00:29:39like green or red everywhere on the production line and it's like if something is red there's a problem
00:29:43go there immediately um there's there's a couple versions of physically move yourself immediately
00:29:49where the product he's you should see his like if you track his private jet it's like all over
00:29:54the world constantly on the move um and so it's not just like locally move yourself to wherever
00:29:59the problem is immediately call the people get them in the room go there like it's an underrated thing
00:30:05to be physically where the problem is and whatever the most important this goes back to the kind of
00:30:09like the original multiplying things of like whatever the most important thing to do is whatever
00:30:13the limiting factor is attack it immediately in the most effective way possible which is usually
00:30:19going physically to where the problem is and seeing it for yourself directly or pulling in all the
00:30:23people that have a hand in it do things in parallel yeah george and i were talking about this this
00:30:29morning because i think there's like conventionally good wisdom that is focus and this was one of the
00:30:35things i was surprised by um warren buffett's the perfect quote to like explain this concept at a
00:30:41high level which is like you can't get a baby in one month by getting nine women pregnant
00:30:44elon's tried so you just there are some things that there's an incompressible amount of time
00:30:54and if you put those in sequence now all of a sudden your timeline is this long
00:30:58but if you can plant all the seeds at the same time and they're growing in parallel
00:31:02all of a sudden your timeline is shrunk by a third and i was at the grandest scale it's kind of like
00:31:09most normal people would start an electric car company grow it make it successful and then start
00:31:14their space company and he was like ah there i can do both at once we just give it a try um
00:31:20because we might be able to move the total timeline of success up dramatically and it's harder and it's
00:31:26riskier but it also generates returns sooner um and i think there's only some problems that are like
00:31:33this is the right approach for and he talked about in paypal is like we were developing the product
00:31:37and trying to do all these integrations and trying to get um like regulatory covered and he's like we
00:31:42did all of them all at once it was fucking chaos but we launched in a year instead of the three
00:31:48years that would have been conventional wisdom of like it doesn't make sense to invest in the product
00:31:51until we have the permission and we don't know the integrations until we have the product he's like
00:31:55nope do it all at once launch immediately wild wild uh we should not be afraid of doing something
00:32:03important simply because some amount of tragedy is likely to occur this is more of that bias for
00:32:09action this sort of disregard of fear and even even further than that it's it's uh i think this comes
00:32:15from his study of history in a lot of ways he says i think the extended version of that quote is like
00:32:20if we did if you if you never take a risk like the united states wouldn't exist like every great
00:32:27adventure involves risk and people will die and we have to accept that we are the pendulum is swung
00:32:33too far towards like oh my god nobody can ever be harmed in any way nobody is allowed to risk their
00:32:39life nobody's allowed to take experimental treatments we can't make progress like this
00:32:43you know colonizing mars is a grand adventure it involves risk like not everything is going to go
00:32:49right but especially if people choose to take those risks or risk their life to accomplish this great
00:32:56feat for humankind there's something inherent about humans sort of feeling fulfilled sacrificing
00:33:02themselves to further humanity as a whole and i think to me that quote is like yeah damn the
00:33:08torpedoes uh like let's do it what do you think is the most misleading narrative about your lunch
00:33:13success it depends which camp you're kind of coming from i think there are die-hard fanboys that have
00:33:20just like total blindfold to the the negatives um and i think there's a lot of people especially
00:33:26after his sort of political chapter that have just a whole bunch of ideas that are factually incorrect
00:33:31that they believe as deep truths um i mean like anybody who is one of the most famous people on
00:33:37earth right like and past a certain level of fame i think there's like a derangement syndrome about
00:33:42everybody um so i think it's actually kind of hard to find a neutral or a like well-rounded set of
00:33:50opinions on him that's a good point i i was thinking about elon in comparison with mark zuckerberg and
00:33:55um sure there's some people that don't like mark the people of kawaii aren't massive fans of him
00:34:03buying up a ton of land and there's other bits and pieces but i don't think people have like insane
00:34:08fervor against him or insane fervor for him yeah uh but elon seems to be much more barbell-y right
00:34:16if you were to draw a graph it's just a pair of boobs whereas you know most most people are kind
00:34:21of a bell curve whereas elon's managed to completely clear the middle yeah i don't think
00:34:25that used to be true like is that is that do you think that's a byproduct of him having a political
00:34:29chapter uh yeah i guess so and then that creates the foundation and on top of that is wealth huge
00:34:38amounts of wealth this potential ipo thing yeah um he's spiky i mean he's he is like he's an unrefined
00:34:46sense of humor that he like puts out there what do you if he's so concerned about the bias to action
00:34:52working on the biggest problem the bottlenecks etc why have such a public presence like why
00:35:00tweet a lot yeah you on the platform or whatever but podcasts and interviews and stuff like that
00:35:08if you're the i compare with someone like james dyson right who kind of from some areas of a skill
00:35:14set is not massively different yeah senra told me about when he sat down with james dyson james
00:35:19dyson's done thousand maybe tens of thousands of prototypes he said he was looking at james dyson's
00:35:23hands so james dyson's hands were like alex honnold's hands these gnarled you could the sinewy
00:35:31tough thick things these fucking chodes on the end of his the end of his arms and um i don't know
00:35:38that that element for instance what's the role that that level of exposure is playing i think
00:35:45is an interesting one yeah he's had a he's had sort of a taste for that for a long time i think
00:35:50um he's like dated actresses and kind of living in la um but there's an element to which like
00:35:57having that personal presence and talking about what you're doing like he needs to rally support
00:36:02like you need a great team you need investors you need popular support like think about how
00:36:09hard it was to convince people that electric cars were not just not stupid but fucking awesome like
00:36:16that took a lot of repetition it is mad to think when you when you roll back the clock that the
00:36:21prius was like the eminent preeminent fucking electric car it was just a hybrid like the real
00:36:27electric cars were even worse yeah it was it was really um i think it's difficult now to understand
00:36:33how stupid and insane it seemed when he started tesla and the same thing with the rock like there
00:36:38were no space startups like space economy was not a thing and nasa had been on this like slow decline
00:36:43for 50 years we were paying russia to take our astronauts up to the space station like um these
00:36:49were by no means he was not just not obvious but like very consensus insane things to do this
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00:37:45gym.sh modern wisdom and using the code modern wisdom 10 at checkout that's gym.sh modern wisdom
00:37:52and modern wisdom 10 at checkout talk to me about spacex what's the what do most people not
00:37:59understand about that that project to where how he sort of got it to where it is in his place
00:38:03i mean spacex i think most people don't realize started as like a pure philanthropy project he
00:38:10was looking at the nasa website saying when are we going to go to mars we went to the moon 50 years ago
00:38:15why haven't we been back and when are we going to go to mars surely there's a plan and there was
00:38:18no plan and he was coming off of his first exit with paypal um so he had 200 million dollars or
00:38:25something in the bank and he's like i'll just spend a hundred million to like see if i can increase
00:38:30nasa's budget it was pure philanthropy he's like i'm gonna buy a rocket i'm gonna make a little
00:38:33greenhouse i'm gonna ship it to mars and i'm gonna get a photo of a little baby plant on the red
00:38:40planet it'll be the first life on another planet and that'll catalyze this movement and inspire
00:38:44people this that was the that was the origin story yeah it was called mars oasis that was the thing
00:38:49and to do this he like went around trying to buy a rocket he's like why are these rockets so fucking
00:38:53expensive he went to russia and tried to buy an intercontinental icbm and they laughed at him and
00:39:00spit on him and like fucked him around and he got pissed and so he's like maybe the problem is that
00:39:07space launch costs are so high how why are rockets so expensive can't they be done better and so he
00:39:12gathered a bunch of rocket engineers who had experience at his house i think this is a
00:39:16interesting part of the story he's like did a series of like saturday sessions of like
00:39:20first principles let's look at all the historical things but let's also say like how good could
00:39:27good be with all the modern technology modern design like is there a design that we can come up
00:39:31with that would be a massive improvement in space launch costs such that this would be possible
00:39:35and he realized like the market for space launch that was the bottleneck that was the real problem
00:39:41that like you couldn't get stuff off the planet cheap enough because all we had was space shuttle
00:39:45which is this like massive bloated government program that's not particularly capital efficient
00:39:50they weren't iterating they weren't doing volume they were way overspending on basic parts because
00:39:55they were all like aerospace grade or whatever and so as soon as the paypal thing sold he's like all
00:40:01right i'm gonna go i'm gonna hire some rocket engineers and like let's see if we can do this
00:40:05wasn't the original like the apollo 11 blueprints available just free online wasn't that part of it
00:40:13that you were able to get rocket blueprints you could just download them i think or maybe he made
00:40:17his available for free maybe i mean he's like when you he's not a rocket scientist so he's like how
00:40:22did you learn how to do this and he's like i just read books and i talk to people i read all the
00:40:26textbooks on rocket science that i could find i borrowed them and i started talking to experts
00:40:31and his rocket propulsion engineer was a guy who was like the sick the foremost like rocket
00:40:35hobbyist he had built the single largest like rocket engine as just a dude in his garage tom
00:40:40mueller and that was his propulsion engineer you're hired yeah you're fucking hired uh okay and then
00:40:47what about now like what obviously the cost has come down by some insane factor i know that orders
00:40:53of magnitude which is driven starlink and is going to drive even more um and now he's talking about
00:41:01like building a dyson sphere which is like solar but in space so we can capture more energy than
00:41:07even hits the the earth from the sun and that hasn't even been talking about putting compute
00:41:11in space as well yeah these are like big flat sheets that are like solar panels with compute and then
00:41:16like oh that's the same lasers yeah oh okay i didn't realize that the dyson sphere would power
00:41:23the compute yeah it's just like a bunch of like solar panels with computer chips on the back that
00:41:28like can communicate with each other floating all around in space um which is insane and wild
00:41:34but then that's not the mission like that that is a that is the cargo that makes starship economic to
00:41:40build hundreds or thousands of them but the actual mission is to make life multi-planetary and this
00:41:46goes back to like zoomed all the way out his altruistic philanthropic things is like look
00:41:53we should all agree that we do not want the only form of life that we know in the universe to die
00:42:02like we are the only conscious beings we know earth is the only planet with life that we know of
00:42:09can we all agree that like it would be great to have life move just just next door just
00:42:14get some on mars just get a couple you know maybe a million people get some plants like if a comet
00:42:20hits earth or we blow ourselves up or there's a catastrophic pandemic like we've got another
00:42:26horse in the race like whether you're an environmentalist or a humanist or
00:42:30anything like this is a thing that we should universally agree is good um and why not go for
00:42:37it like he's like this is the window that is for the first time in not just human history but earth's
00:42:43history we have the ability to make life redundant to get it to another planet and isn't that like one
00:42:50of the grandest missions that we can conceive of and he puts it on this evolutionary time scale
00:42:54right so like there was suddenly single-celled life and then multi-celled life and then there was uh
00:43:00fish and then the fish came on land and the split into like plants and animals um different forms of
00:43:06life and going from earth to our first new planet is this massive step function in basically how
00:43:14successful life is and its resilience to whatever comes next how successful do you think spacex is
00:43:22going to be long term unbelievably they have them essentially a monopoly on the toll booth off the
00:43:29planet and like they're they're 90 if not pass go do not go to the moon give me 200 they could have
00:43:38been the great one of the greatest companies on earth even if they never built starship even if
00:43:41they just like cash flowed off of falcon 9 and they were the only reusable rocket company they would
00:43:47have been an unbelievably successful company but they are reinvesting into starship um trying to
00:43:52build compute and and um energy in space they're trying to build a i think he's been talking now
00:43:58about like a mass driver on the moon that'll build these like von neumann probes and all kinds of
00:44:03other crazy stuff but if the historical analogy that he talks about is like this is when the new
00:44:07world was discovered like we all existed around the mediterranean for like most of western human
00:44:12history and then all of a sudden columbus discovered the new world and is like all right we need new
00:44:16shipping technology we have a taste for all of the fineries of this new world so many people want to
00:44:22pay for passage and it's like this economic bonanza and just zoom all the way out again like where are
00:44:29most of the raw materials in the solar system let alone the galaxy like not on earth we have this
00:44:35bias to the the only raw materials that matter like wood and farmland but there are raw materials
00:44:41atomic raw materials on every other world and in the asteroid belt and just like floating around
00:44:46in space um and getting the technology the starship to go access them is going to be an unbelievable
00:44:54boon for humanity but it does take that like leap of imagination to get there what about tesla tesla
00:45:00is i think going through like these startups are stacked s curves right and so electric cars was
00:45:07one very fundamental innovation um autonomy is a whole nother one and so a big question mark is this
00:45:13leap to autonomy and then he's already looking around this corner to do humanoid robots and that's
00:45:19going into tesla yeah humanoid robots are in tesla he's he's just shut down um the model x and the
00:45:26model s production lines and switch them over to building humanoid robots so like that is coming
00:45:32quickly um he's going from starting to build robo taxis that are like fully autonomous no steering
00:45:39wheel um so thinking that the autonomy kind of curve is there and he talks about this being one
00:45:44of the biggest markets of all time and that optimus is even bigger he's also now i think this is
00:45:49underrated because it's a not a consumer product but he's building they are building an unbelievable
00:45:54amount of batteries um which is powering the kind of like solar to battery grid conversion
00:46:01which is going to speed up energy that drives all the compute for the ai revolution um and then
00:46:07there's a whole nother kind of they are backwards vertically integral like they're producing they've
00:46:12just built a new lithium refinery and so they're like we we are supply constrained in many cases
00:46:18and so they're like working backwards um further and further into their supply chain literally to
00:46:23the point where they're looking to go to new planets so that they can get more raw materials yeah he
00:46:26does did say he thinks tesla's gonna have a factory on the moon which like i don't know i don't know if
00:46:30these companies all end up kind of smashed together eventually or what but um he did x is now owned by
00:46:36xai which is now owned by spacex so there's some sort of congealing but i don't know if tesla and
00:46:41spacex will will merge at some point what about these humanoid robots i mean i don't know it's
00:46:49either gonna be one of the biggest markets of all time that totally like breaks the economy and ushers
00:46:55in this crazy era of abundance um but i i think it'll be slow adoption just because people are slow
00:47:01to adopt things that are in particular when they're like in the uncanny valley so commercial uses i
00:47:07think there'll be like a ton of them in factories and stuff like that but also some of the robotics
00:47:11engineers come in and say like humanoid is sure it's generalizable but like there's almost always
00:47:15a better more specific form function robot to use for a use case um right yeah why would we constrain
00:47:22this general purpose robot to have our like dimensions when you could get one that cracks eggs
00:47:30and one that cleans the dishes and one that etc yeah you might just need like two arms on a rail
00:47:34in your kitchen and that's your kitchen robot yeah you might just need like two arms on your washer
00:47:37and that's your laundry robot like you might not actually want one that can like walk around your
00:47:42house and feel like a person have you seen what was the super widely publicized one that kind of
00:47:48had a knitted jumper and a knitted face i think that was optimus no it wasn't no it wasn't it's
00:47:52already shipped it's already out and floating around uh there was an advert there was a billboard on uh
00:47:58like east sixth street for it and i thought it was just such a funny place to put it anyway uh there
00:48:03was this video that someone had put of it trying to load dishes into the dishwasher and it's got this
00:48:11weird position it's sort of leaning like this and somebody had captioned it as uh me every time that
00:48:17it's 6 a.m at a ketamine after party and it literally looks like it's done too much ketamine
00:48:21and it's like all contorted it's like in a really fucking weird position um but yeah i i don't know i
00:48:29you're right to say as soon as you step outside of the existing bucket of what people use things for
00:48:36like going from driving a f-150 to a prius to a tesla ah you know i can kind of see how it works
00:48:44a little bit yeah people were nervous about full self-driving but after a while okay there we go
00:48:49there we go no one has no one's looking at the fact well i already have a dishwasher
00:48:56and this robot is basically an on-its-feet multi-purpose dishwasher it's not quite the
00:49:02same thing yeah here it is look at this it's trying to close the door
00:49:08if you're standing there watching that this would be very painful
00:49:26yeah but you just go away and the dishes are done cool yeah i mean are they done
00:49:30no no fucking go back dude yeah it's uh there's work to be done i think it's a it's a it is a
00:49:40really interesting question of like where where and how our humanoid robot is going to show up over the
00:49:43next 10 years i think it's like one of the big questions um and like i would probably go to a
00:49:48laundromat staffed by humanoid robots great makes total sense like a coffee shop maybe maybe not
00:49:55maybe washing dishes but not like at the counter making a lot of it just because yeah just because
00:50:00you partly go there for the human interaction um i don't know i think it'll be really interesting
00:50:06to like see how it all plays out his plan is what is this one in every home within the space of
00:50:10basically no time at all yeah i mean like tons of demand especially if it is smart and helpful um
00:50:17it's kind of like rosie from the jetsons right like do all the stuff i don't want to do go get
00:50:21the trash cans take out the trash presumably powered by xai in some regard so that is going
00:50:26to have to start to cross over the tesla to xai thing so that would suggest a natural sort of
00:50:32convergence well tesla has its own amazing ai team they're building their own chips but he does say
00:50:36like tesla because of all of the like real world ai stuff that tesla's done to create self-driving
00:50:41that's actually very analogous to making really smart humanoid robots and he talks about having
00:50:46like a this crazy training center full of humanoid robots basically doing stuff like that looking like
00:50:50idiots trying to like figure out the training data and then getting rewards yeah oh you did it well
00:50:55you closed it without looking like you're on ketamine congratulations who was i speaking to
00:50:59fuck i was talking to someone i was talking to someone at dinner the other night and they
00:51:03were saying that basically they think a lot of people i go oh it was uh my friend austin um
00:51:08people are gonna have to wear little cameras that show them going about their daily business to train
00:51:15robots this is a thing yeah i mean dude i've only just this is fucking blowing my mind because
00:51:21obviously that's how tesla's full self-driving was uh trained right they took the top one percent ten
00:51:27percent of drivers on tesla and used their driving style to reverse engineer what humans do so that
00:51:34the robots that drive your tesla can drive in the manner that you wouldn't it means that you've got
00:51:38more aggressive driving you've got the ability to overtake and undertake which if you ever get into
00:51:43a fucking waymo it does not have the capacity to do that it's the most tentative grand mar of all time
00:51:48because that's being created from first principles as opposed to the flow of traffic is other humans
00:51:55i as a human i'm able to detect that and adjust appropriately therefore if i if you become me
00:52:02robot then you can also be kind of a human yeah and it is cool in a tesla you can have it set like
00:52:06you can set like i want a chill drive or like i'm fucking late like let's go okay um there's just
00:52:12but yeah people are gonna wear fucking cameras that just they're gonna crack eggs and iron clothes and
00:52:21yeah yeah i mean training data has already been a huge like part of the economy it's mostly like
00:52:24digital training data and companies are making a ton of money like selling training data to
00:52:28models digitally but yeah the ability to collect massive massive massive amounts of data and train
00:52:34ai and now in the real world train ai to like do all these i mean if someone's wearing one of those
00:52:40you know chest harness things with a dgi on it and easier yeah they're going about that they're
00:52:45already working at starbucks or doing whatever they're a mechanic and you go well do you want
00:52:50to earn an additional however many dollars per hour yeah to submit your life to our training data and
00:52:56you need to you know it's basically like being an uber driver but for your own life and then sending
00:53:02that digitally up to whoever needs to be trained did you see the thing about the meta glasses
00:53:09recently this is like i'm not sure if this is in the press or i just read this on a tweet but it's
00:53:13like those are always recording even if they're like not oh and some some uh uh like african
00:53:20fucking ai labelers were able to see the faces weren't blurred out or something yeah i mean
00:53:24somebody just like puts the glasses on the nightstand and then like you know the spouse
00:53:28comes in and starts changing and there's like nigerians like sitting there tagging data of like
00:53:32yep that's your wife changing clothes um because this thing doesn't stop recording like you know
00:53:39i'd rather wear it you know on my chest right now put it in a lockbox at night when i'm not on my
00:53:45yeah yeah we'll get back to talking in just one second but first tell me if this sounds familiar
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00:55:08at checkout that's functionhealth.com/modernwisdom and modernwisdom at checkout what's underappreciated
00:55:15about elon's skill sets do you think what are the things that people don't realize i think the the
00:55:20breadth of his skill set is is quite interesting um i think if you try to emulate just one or two of
00:55:26these traits like without appreciating how they interconnect you could either make some mistakes
00:55:32or be an asshole depending on like how you went about it um but i think he's like he's a
00:55:37micromanager but he's like in the technical details because he has technical expertise and like a
00:55:42strong intuition around the physics of things um he has a deep fluency across not just the the physics
00:55:50and the engineering but also the finance and the economics like he double majored in economics and
00:55:54physics in college and so from the very beginning he's been like he's a great line like to truly
00:55:59control the product you have to control the company and he does not share power well but there's been
00:56:04many times where he's made like a risky or technical decision based on his sort of economic and
00:56:11opportunity cost view of the future of the business and so even early on spacex he was he was driving
00:56:16maniacal urgency because he's like the future of this business is 10 million dollars in revenue a
00:56:20day and every day we fuck around like every time you burn a day every time you burn 12 hours you
00:56:26burn half of our future 10 million dollar a day run rate so like let's go let's go let's go um
00:56:32so that mix of like really big picture and deep in the details understanding the limiting factor
00:56:39attacking it which is a mix of like that's technical skill that's economic fluency that's
00:56:45like a sense of project management actually um and the ability to know how and when to
00:56:51push push people if really really smart rocket scientists are telling you that's impossible
00:56:57no and he's like do it anyway like it is possible i i'm telling you it's possible go do it anyway
00:57:05and you're seven out of ten times even like even five out of even one out of ten times because
00:57:10every time that you're right about that you've gained a like a jewel that will pay off for the
00:57:15whole rest of your company and the nine times that you were wrong like oh i guess you were right
00:57:20impossible did mean impossible in that sense or maybe we'll revisit it next year or what made it
00:57:25impossible maybe we can we can break that down further um and so it's this the george bernard
00:57:31shaw quote like all progress depends on the unreasonable man like he's unreasonable
00:57:38the unreasonable man what about memory it seems like he's got a pretty good memory yeah that was
00:57:42one of the things um he he picked up really early in life he like read one of those memory trick books
00:57:48with the guys who like memorize a whole deck of cards um and so he's been using memory tricks um
00:57:53which you know one of the things of like how the hell does he do what he does like five companies
00:57:58many projects in all of them taking technical reviews it'd be hard to remember all these
00:58:04people's names let alone like what they're doing week over week and where the bottlenecks are and
00:58:08all this stuff and he's got you know he practiced those as a kid um and so i think he still uses like
00:58:13memory palaces and some of these tricks which are one of those things that like that seems superhuman
00:58:19if if you don't know how it works um and there's a lot of stories of him one of the ways he builds
00:58:26loyalty with his team actually is people like holy shit when he he knows a specific technical detail
00:58:32like of somebody's project that is like you know a has a direct report who has a direct report and he
00:58:38like is like you're the bottleneck what's going on and they're like this this and this he's like try
00:58:42this they're gonna like holy shit that worked like how how did you know that you haven't like spent
00:58:47time in here and it's this mix i live with this every single day and you just came in and and had
00:58:52it yeah yeah like that's a mix of memory and intuition and incredible like uh recall and and
00:59:02depth and feeling for that like the physics of the thing presumably risk and pain tolerance
00:59:07have to be too yeah it's immersed in it like absolutely immersed in it and and like i think
00:59:13this is a place where the kind of the asperger's is it can be an advantage like just lives in it
00:59:20over and over and over again lives in what the details of these products and these people and
00:59:24where the bottlenecks are like that wouldn't suggest why pain and risk are more palatable
00:59:31or maybe it would i don't know maybe people who are a little spectrumy don't have the same
00:59:36detection of risk they certainly don't have the same detection of other stuff well i think it
00:59:39really helps to set aside social risk which i think we blend a lot of right like i'm going to look like
00:59:43a failure people are going to think i'm wrong it's going to ruin these relationships like he doesn't
00:59:47have any of that and he says like it is a huge weakness to want to be liked and i do not have it
00:59:50um it is a huge weakness to want to be liked and i do not have it he tries to like weakness to want
00:59:56to be liked you don't think that he wants to be liked i do think he wants to be liked in a in a
01:00:00general sense it's a huge weakness to think that you want to be liked yeah the willingness to enter
01:00:07into dislike maybe is the thing like um i think uh you know he tries to coach his managers and
01:00:13within the company versus outside the company like are you willing to be
01:00:17misunderstood by the general public and that's an interesting question like
01:00:21if you had the chance pick your pick your divisive opinion right like are you pro-choice or pro-life
01:00:27for you or open borders or closed borders whatever if you had the chance to like flip the switch and
01:00:33make that decision but the catch is everybody knew it was you like are you willing to make a
01:00:39hundred million enemies who will do like lie cheat steal fabricate twist your words like attack your
01:00:48family do anything because like they hate the decision that you made like are you willing to
01:00:52do that i think most people are not and agree with or disagree with any particular decision like
01:00:58respect the the commitment and the courage that it takes to go do that
01:01:03what do you think you learned about elon that most biographies miss
01:01:08what did doing this kind of a book teach you that biographies don't get up
01:01:13i think i got way deeper in the tactics like i try to my north star for these books is usefulness
01:01:22to the reader like i try to collect all the most useful things that person has ever said
01:01:26and i want to simulate the feeling of being at dinner with elon musk like it's written
01:01:30as a dialogue i keep it all in exactly his words as tightly as i can i edit out anything that's
01:01:36doesn't feel like you would be curious about it from a sense of like how do i improve my own life
01:01:40and how did how did this happen um didn't the navarman act isn't that per word the most highlighted
01:01:46book in kindle history or something is that stat that i made up maybe i was trying to make it that
01:01:51i don't i i don't think kindle will like give me that readwise said it's like in their top whatever
01:01:56yeah but that would be also including distribution probably not per word like what you want is for
01:02:02people who read this book yes how much of the book is highlighted on kindle yes and i want to see like
01:02:08i love when people show me like beat to shit copies of their book like it's been in and out of a sauna
01:02:12their backpack everything is so satisfying yeah just wring it out yeah uh okay so that like
01:02:21biography miss the tactic i i just go deeper into how like how does that person accomplish what they
01:02:29do what are their what is their secret sauce i feel like biographers kind of come at this from like
01:02:33how comprehensive and correct can i be about their whole history not what's the most useful thing that
01:02:41you would pull out of the biography like that i think that's why like david center's episodes are
01:02:45amazing because he takes the biography and distills it and kind of boils it down and that is like my
01:02:50approach is like take a million words and turn it into 50 000 of the most useful ones um and to pull
01:02:57out the things that he would teach you if you were sitting across from him is like actually a really
01:03:03interesting kind of test for material to go through and how timeless can it be and how universally can
01:03:10it be applied like i think anybody on earth can take something useful out of this and i over and
01:03:14over again kind of sift it through that filter it's like almost like a version of writing fiction
01:03:19because in fiction you're trying to bring a character to life and in this you're trying to
01:03:23be that person briefly to try and condense down what would they want to say of their own words
01:03:30that they've already said what would they what would their top 50 000 be out of this million
01:03:35and a half if they were trying to be as helpful as possible like their best selves right so that's the
01:03:39other the other difference is like i'm not trying to build a comprehensive view of the person i'm not
01:03:45trying to put them in historical context i'm trying to be as useful as possible and i don't i don't
01:03:49dwell on any of the personal stuff any of the political stuff like we don't talk about his
01:03:53family it's just like what would he teach if he set out to teach all of the ideas that he had the most
01:03:59conviction in yeah it's an interesting challenge with somebody who is as uh widely regarded and
01:04:05hated as elon because almost everything that everybody wants to talk about is not to do with
01:04:12the tactics and the principles and the purpose it's to do with the intention it's to do with
01:04:17the drive it's to do with the ethics and the scruples and almost every conversation i hear
01:04:23people have casually about elon is them projecting their own opinion they're using elon as a foil to
01:04:28be like i think it's great that we're going to mars and doing these things or i think it's terrible
01:04:33that he made this decision about you know the us aid and that's fine like you can agree or disagree
01:04:40with anything that this person does but like you're using that to project your values you're
01:04:45not asking like what can i learn from this person and to pick somebody as an exemplar is not to say
01:04:50that everything they do is correct like i very much believe in model traits not people and so my
01:04:56aspiration is to collect the most useful traits of some of the most accomplished people and make them
01:05:03accessible and useful one of the most interesting ideas is the idiot index what's that the idiot
01:05:09index he uh it's kind of an outcropping uh it's a it's downstream of the first principles thinking
01:05:15and so the idiot index applies to a particular part or a particular product and it's the difference
01:05:20between the raw material cost and the price and so the an example he absolutely roasted an engineer
01:05:27in a meeting who like didn't know what the stupidest parts in his product were in his
01:05:34composite because that shows you where you're massively overpaying so there's a part um that was
01:05:39they were paying thirteen thousand dollars for there was like one piece of steel and if you just
01:05:44weighed it the weight of that steel was worth like two hundred dollars and so he's like you multiply
01:05:49the price of the raw material or divide that out of the total price and like i don't know what that
01:05:56is all the time a big number like that's fucking stupid we're overpaying by like 50x for that thing
01:06:03so like how cheaply can you get the steel and then get it into that shape and you get those insane
01:06:10idiot indexes especially in aerospace because you go outsource and then outsource and then outsource
01:06:14and so there's like layers of delegation and profit everyone is arbitraging their profit off the top of
01:06:19this final thing that ends up coming down there's rolls royce that make the engine but before that
01:06:23the turbine is milled in this place and before that the raw materials are mined out of yeah there's like
01:06:29five subcontractors we're figuring out like one guy who's like welding a thing together and you're like
01:06:33oh just bring that guy over here and then the part is like 400 bucks great we just saved twelve
01:06:39thousand dollars i guess asking the question why is this so expensive 100 becomes quite a powerful
01:06:45question and then power ranking the things like what is most expensive like we're attacking that
01:06:50one what's the second most expensive we're attacking that one and this is how i mean this is how he's
01:06:55able to make these huge cost breakthroughs that then make things more and more and more available
01:06:58what have been the biggest cost breakthroughs what have been the ones that have completely unlocked
01:07:02spacex tesla i i think it's a million little ones all stacked up right so like there that that one
01:07:09example like thirteen thousand dollars to 200 is like more than two orders of magnitude you know
01:07:15500x or something um there's there's a story about like a latch that was supposed to be a thousand
01:07:21dollars or something and a guy just like looked at it and was like kind of looks like a bathroom stall
01:07:25latch and so he like went home depot bought a bathroom stall latch and was like did a little
01:07:30did a little magic magic on it it's like okay did it 50 bucks boom um it does that scrappiness over
01:07:36every single part every single part every single part and you know it's just the simple things done
01:07:42over and over and over again with like ruthless intensity and really it goes back to the the kind
01:07:48of the quote that you brought up about like feeling the pain of your decisions like if there's a company
01:07:53making money by selling a part that they bought from a subcontractor for a hundred dollars and
01:07:58then selling it to 500 like who cares and if the ultimate buyer is the government who like can just
01:08:03have a black box budget like fine doesn't matter but if elon comes in and says like i need to drop
01:08:08the cost of space launch by two orders of magnitude in order to accomplish this thing and then two more
01:08:14orders of magnitude because we need to get to fucking mars then like now the goal the bar is
01:08:19so much higher and you start asking questions like how cheap can you get how cheap can you get can't
01:08:24we do this cheaper do we need that part at all like simplifying eliminating reducing costs um and and
01:08:30that's you know when when it's spacex it feels more abstract because like none of us are consuming
01:08:35rockets but if we're buying a tesla we care a lot whether it's twenty thousand dollars or thirty
01:08:41thousand dollars that's massive and that changes by a huge number the number of people who can access
01:08:46a nice car that's safe that doesn't pollute right and so like if in five or ten more years we keep
01:08:53doing these things we keep eliminating parts we keep increasing scale we keep uh lowering the
01:08:59idiot index of every part and like now the car's ten thousand dollars and it's like an absolute
01:09:04no-brainer um and the world is quieter and calmer and cleaner as you move forward allies will assemble
01:09:10around you yeah i mean there's no better example than chris williams said because of all of my
01:09:17allies yeah i mean think this like this started with you and a microphone right like what seven
01:09:22years ago eight eight years ago like a thousand episodes later there's there's like an army at
01:09:28your back you got an incredible team here you've got millions of listeners you got people all around
01:09:32the world they're like excited to see you tour um but you didn't wait for a million people to like
01:09:37demand for you to create a podcast you started and you had one fan and then two and then four and then
01:09:42eight and you know a thousand episodes later like here you are you just have to start carrying that
01:09:48flag do you think because when people think about elon when they talk about him a lot of the time it
01:09:53is this it's quite cantankerous it's adversarial there is this super aggression the bias for action
01:09:59and the urgency all of this would make you think difficult to work for hiring and firing maybe there
01:10:05is a runway for each individual member of staff i reckon i can get on average i would love to know
01:10:11what the average tenure is you know and i get nine months out of people but i get nine months of a
01:10:16hundred hours a week or something like that let's say you go okay well that and that is just the cost
01:10:21of doing business in order to push people at the pace that i want to i need to have a bigger staff
01:10:25base in order to do that have you got any idea about how he hires about what his hiring process is like
01:10:30he must have just the most insane hr department that is constantly trying to put out fires people
01:10:36yeah they're permanently people just like fucking exiting the business because i've i can't like you
01:10:42know it's like a leonardo dicaprio dating someone who's 25 and you're like fucking the day that she
01:10:47yeah exactly like what 26 you're out like you know yeah what elon talks about is we like phony and
01:10:53rich of like people have a certain level of success and then he's like you you got soft like i'm not
01:10:57getting we're not getting enough out of you anymore you're not dedicated enough um and people exit his
01:11:02hiring process is you know at least he speaks about it very simply he's like i'm looking for evidence
01:11:07of exceptional ability and he wants to hire young brilliant engineers even if they're not necessarily
01:11:13like super trained but they have the capability to solve problems in this really quick way and the
01:11:18culture i think is such he's done an amazing job of like building that intensity and the decision-making
01:11:23process into the culture such that like people who come in are kind of brought along and swept up in
01:11:28it and carried through like the you do go through that machine um but those allies are stumbling
01:11:36around you like people have to choose to come work for you and it's because he chose these giant
01:11:39purposes um but you know it's easy to forget that these started really small and really crazy and he
01:11:44had to paint these big pictures to get people to be excited and show up and give their all for it the
01:11:49most common mistake of smart engineers is to optimize something that should not exist yeah
01:11:54this is uh he likens this to like school teaches us to solve the problem in front of us like you
01:12:00can't reject a question on a test but actually this is a stupid question i don't want to answer it
01:12:05yeah dumb don't like it take it back oh 100 yeah congratulations here's your a it doesn't happen
01:12:10so the piece that he the first step of the algorithm this is his like five-step engineering
01:12:16process is to question the requirements and then the second is to try very very hard to delete
01:12:21the part or process you know the best part is no part the best process is no process so if something
01:12:27can be deleted the product gets simpler and simplicity as he says delivers both reliability
01:12:33and low cost and so i think it is this we spend so much time doing things or optimizing things that
01:12:41that truly don't need to exist um and if you look at you know the complexity of plenty of products
01:12:47around us it's like did nobody try to put these parts together uh but when you're trying to build
01:12:52a car out of ten thousand different parts you're like all right every time i can put i can combine
01:12:56these two things it's one less thing to attach to another and then it's four less parts because i
01:13:01don't need two screws to connect these two parts together um and it's less tolerance like it's it's
01:13:08less things that can space to show up in the thing and there's less things that can fall apart if
01:13:12they're one unit instead of two so it is part of the process to just revisit and revisit and revisit
01:13:18if you don't eat the glass you're not going to be successful oh yeah his uh i think this is
01:13:23originally a bill lee quote who's a friend of his and entrepreneurship is like eating glass and
01:13:28staring into the abyss and the follow-up is like eventually you start to like the taste of your own
01:13:33blood yeah yeah yeah i think it is a sad lesson for people who are on the outside of business
01:13:41that like the idea of running a business that at some point all of the problems will go away
01:13:47but you are the person in charge of the problems yeah like that's your job is to find the biggest
01:13:52problem and to always be at the vanguard of trying to fix that problem and at no point throughout your
01:13:58entire career will there be no problems and given that you are ultimately the problem solver at the
01:14:02buck stops with yeah guess what it's going to be on you and it's going to be on you for the rest
01:14:07of time and if the business is in decline that is a problem and if the business is in ascendancy you
01:14:12will have new bigger problems as you push new frontiers yes you better fall in love with solving
01:14:16problems yeah um it's a very interesting uh he didn't originally set out as ceo of tesla and he
01:14:23didn't he says he didn't want to become ceo of tesla and he just felt like compelled to do it at
01:14:28a certain point because if he didn't he felt like it the company would have failed and the sense of
01:14:32like internalizing responsibility of like the the outcome of the mission is more important than my
01:14:37desire for for comfort or my desire to avoid problems it's like as ceo you are dealing with a
01:14:42distillation of the worst problems in the company and that's the chewing glass piece like if you're
01:14:47not going to the hard part if you're not tackling the hardest thing then you know that denial or that
01:14:55lack of urgency or that willful blindness is going to catch up with you and the company is going to
01:14:59suffer yeah because ultimately that is the biggest bottleneck right that is the thing that is holding
01:15:04everything else up and if you're the leader where you direct that attention is where the organization
01:15:08sort of chooses to focus what's that thing that formula one drivers talk about don't look at the
01:15:13wall like the car goes the car goes where you look yeah and the company will go where you're looking
01:15:17presumably all of the staff that work for you as well yeah yeah which i think is another part of
01:15:22like his this comes from the military history of like being a battlefield general always being at
01:15:27the front your troops fight harder when you're there this is why he sleeps in the factory this
01:15:30is why he physically goes to wherever the problem is immediately like that leading from the front is
01:15:36a part of how he gets so much out of the people that he works with i'm doing it i'm in the trenches
01:15:42i'm sleeping on the factory floor yes you can do it we are suffering together like for a good cause
01:15:47it's worth it we can do it well also that's the way that he's constructed right that's the way
01:15:52that he's built i do think that's authentic to him yes um and he he leans into it and he you know he
01:15:58says i'm like i'm wired for war like i find comfort in like those kind of challenges those are so much
01:16:05so that you construct wars that don't even exist you create chaos and discomfort when you don't need
01:16:10to yeah but i think he would rather err on the side of like over over dosing on anxiety overdosing on
01:16:21effort making sure that nothing slips making sure that he's always making as much progress as they
01:16:25possibly can what do you think the inside of his mind's like to exist in that he calls it a a storm
01:16:32or a non-stop explosion those are like the two ways he's described it and someone who's like
01:16:37is it a happy storm no i i don't know that he's been formally diagnosed but i think he has talked
01:16:43about either tendencies towards not just asperger's but also um some bipolar tendencies and that's a
01:16:50hard hand with especially with you know a traumatic childhood um and the the stresses that he deals
01:16:57with you know publicly and privately and like he's he carries a heavy load do you think he's
01:17:03actually a genius or is he just someone who's consistently applying a handful of sort of brutal
01:17:08principles over and over again i think it's both um i think he's i think there's sufficient evidence
01:17:14that he is certainly above average if not like way up there in in iq um you know he was precocious he
01:17:22was like the head of his class as a kid and um coding video games when he was 12 and like you
01:17:28know had a patent his name on a patent when he was like 20 so like i think people who go around being
01:17:33like elon's an idiot everybody else does all the work is like that is just not an informed opinion
01:17:38at all but i don't think he's a thousand times smarter than any other human who's ever lived
01:17:42and so the difference between like all right he's smart he's probably you know certainly smarter than
01:17:48me but like he's not that doesn't not explain the difference in order of magnitudes of the outcome
01:17:55it seems like level of smart tolerance for risk
01:18:00bias for action and work rate at least from what we've been talking about those seem to be four of
01:18:09the big drivers and grand quests i think i think that's a that is a key piece of actually like what
01:18:18makes him special i think if he if he applied like you know massive work ethic and first principles
01:18:23and ingenuity to like reinventing insurance it just like wouldn't wouldn't have the same zest
01:18:29and zeal and he wouldn't have the same like level of outlier results what is the purpose piece how
01:18:35does that sort of factor in i think it's an interesting i think he cares very deeply about
01:18:40humanity as a whole um i think it's it's an interesting paradox where he's like
01:18:46people who criticize him for like being cruel or whatever to people he works with like coming down
01:18:54hard on them or having really high expectations or um being mean or firing people capriciously or
01:19:00whatever but as he explains it's like i am yes i push people really hard i sometimes step on toes
01:19:09but i do that in service of this mission that serves all of us which is making life multi-planetary
01:19:14or electrifying transport advancing clean energy if it's neuro link it's like helping paraplegics
01:19:21or quadriplegics like control computers or eventually walk again that also has some ai
01:19:25alignment components to it um he there's a chapter in the book like my companies are philanthropy
01:19:31everything that he starts are all the technologies that he tries to advance come from this inherent
01:19:35love of humanity and the desire to solve problems that make collectively our lives better or preserve
01:19:41consciousness itself so your first book is on my list of a hundred books to read and there's a top
01:19:47five at the top which are the ones that everybody should start with and it's in that one of the other
01:19:50ones that's in there is the precipice by toby ord and that's all about existential risk how humanity
01:19:55could go extinct from super volcanoes to supernova explosions to nanotechnology and engineered
01:20:04pandemics and natural pandemics and ai and all the rest of it but you did a section on x risk as well
01:20:09yeah why is that important i i almost early stages of this book i didn't have it in there um and it
01:20:18wasn't until the purpose piece kind of clarified itself that i was like oh this is actually like
01:20:22the frame through which he is is so motivated um as what i'm sure that that book goes into
01:20:29great detail about it like there's been many extinction events in human history or not in
01:20:34human history but in earth's history like many species most species were wiped out multiple
01:20:38times entire continents destroyed like asteroids have hit earth in the past we don't know if things
01:20:43have like evolved and then been killed but his big motivation is like make life multi-planetary
01:20:48preserve the only form of consciousness that we're aware of that exists in the world in the universe
01:20:53which is ourselves and we're gonna feel pretty stupid if we destroy ourselves before we use
01:21:02before we back ourselves up like back up the hard drive and his point is like you know we've been
01:21:07around earth has been around a really long time humanity has not been around so long civilization
01:21:12is very young like we're only 10 000 years into what could be a million year civilization
01:21:17but we've got to take this first step um off the planet and into the solar system and
01:21:23if we've fucked this up before we get off the planet like
01:21:28big l yeah well i think what what's fascinating to me is i wonder about uh people who are very
01:21:38singular in the modern world and what that person would have done in ancient times it was so funny
01:21:44assuming that you weren't born a slave and you couldn't have raised out of anything if there's
01:21:49some sort of egalitarian meritocracy and you can just like toss them into the roman empire or toss
01:21:54them into the middle of the war of the roses or something just watch what happens yeah
01:21:58i don't know man it certainly seems like it's the time to have somebody that's like that
01:22:05um regardless of what is going on personally what you think about ethics and all the rest of it
01:22:11um i remember he gave this interview it's probably about three or four years ago and he said something
01:22:16to the effect of what i care about is doing good not the appearance of it yeah and there are a lot
01:22:23of people around who are doing bad while trying to appear good they have no interest in that and um
01:22:33it's kind of the move fast break things i didn't give a fuck what you think of me
01:22:36type approach even if that's untrue in some part like an ability to be disliked a preparedness to
01:22:44not care so much about optics in the way that other people do um it's a fucking big unlock
01:22:51peter has a very interesting observation of like how high a percent of the successful founders
01:22:58especially in tech seem to be somewhere on the spectrum and he's like what does it say about our
01:23:03society that the people who are like have a biological advantage in
01:23:09de-emphasizing the opinions of others are the ones who more reliably seem to achieve an
01:23:16outlier success have you heard jonathan b's approach he says there's only three types of
01:23:20founders that are going to be successful number one is megalomaniac number two is autist
01:23:28and number three is revenge fantasy and megalomaniac adam newman from we work uh autist elon musk
01:23:36and revenge fantasy palmer lucky um although i think palmer actually kind of has a bit of all
01:23:41three and i think elon probably has a bit of all three as well like you know trying to alchemize
01:23:44some slights that occurred earlier on but uh hey look i think in order to do different things in
01:23:52order to make changes and to push the limits in ways that people haven't seen before obviously
01:23:57obviously you're going to need but by design you're going to have to get comfortable with people
01:24:03doubting you and making judgments about it the the disregard for the way things are done
01:24:10yes is completely crucial yeah and i think so many of us forget that we
01:24:15you know it's almost like we're in the matrix unless we make the willful effort to break out of it
01:24:21and we have this bias to defend the status quo no matter what it is without even really
01:24:25ever thinking critically about it um and so most of us when you hear something like somebody's
01:24:30disrupting and radically innovating something new we're just kind of like ah do we really need that
01:24:35isn't it fine the way it is especially as we get older or as we get comfortable with that thing
01:24:39you know there's a great like douglas adams line like everything invented before your 30 is like a
01:24:45new miracle and to be appreciated and everything invented after your 30 is like a crime against
01:24:50humanity and a sin and should be not this is where there's a line about driving everybody driving
01:24:55slower than you as an idiot and everyone driving faster than you as a maniac yeah uh every there's
01:25:00one about women as well every girl who's got smaller titties than me is flat chested and
01:25:04every girl who's got bigger titties than me is a fatty that was in your episode about uh female
01:25:15intra-sexual competition yeah yeah small titties big titties it all comes down to titties so look
01:25:21dude this coming to the book process which i think is fascinating obviously you write
01:25:25the navalmanac and then that kind of springboards you into this pretty much the forefront of the
01:25:31self-published like pioneer space what what is this book like what are these books is it a new kind of
01:25:39biography is it a compendium it's it's a very strange type of book to read even though it's
01:25:47obviously been super popular so is it a new genre i i i truly don't know what to call it like it's
01:25:53kind of weird i even feel weird saying like i write this book because i feel like i build it
01:25:57like it feels like doing a jigsaw puzzle to me and it's much more about removal yes right once you've
01:26:02got everything this is everything that this person has ever said yeah now how much of this block of
01:26:07marble do i need to remove before david's left yeah and just organizing and finding the thread so that
01:26:13it feels like each question is sort of a natural byproduct of the the previous idea and it's just
01:26:18like a clean oh yeah and then weaving the weaving as well i suppose yeah it's maybe more akin to clay
01:26:24than it is to marble yeah there's just um it is a weird thing and it came out of loving i mean i'm a
01:26:31big fan of charlie monger and warren buffett and like they never wrote books but a lot of people
01:26:35built books out of their talks their lectures their letters and i never knew what to call
01:26:41those either but i just found myself asking like who do i wish had written books and then realizing
01:26:46that the raw material is out there and i've been lucky to get you know permission from naval and
01:26:50biology and elon to like build these things um and i don't know what to call them and i don't know how
01:26:56to talk about it but i like it's fucking awesome here's what you can call it dude i think it's
01:26:59really really good um what what have you learned about the scale of the internet since obviously the
01:27:06naval manic was a huge rip-roaring success and really sort of catapulted you you weren't already
01:27:11that small before but that really sort of put you at the forefront what's it taught you about leverage
01:27:16online and that experience yeah it's easy i feel like um anybody's into podcasting youtube social
01:27:22media knows intellectually that like the internet is vast and the niches are bigger than you think
01:27:27um but it sometimes takes a like palpable human experience to be like oh shit no really like they
01:27:33are much bigger than you think and i was really um i'm just surprised and delighted to like see that
01:27:38book take on a life of its own and see how many people recommended it and see how many people
01:27:42resonated like i thought i was writing a book is like building a lighthouse where you're like
01:27:46it has this ability to kind of like attract your people in a podcast i'm sure is the same
01:27:50you're like you you kind of put your values out there and people who resonate with it are like
01:27:54man i really like that i was like then we probably get along great like that's super cool and fun um
01:27:59and it's a great it's a great life on the other side of that creating something like that um
01:28:04and the relationships that come out of it right the the thing the scale still blows me away like i
01:28:10can't believe that we're you know this sells so well in china and india and all around the world
01:28:16and across so many different demographics india india makes a little more sense that's fair um
01:28:22but yeah i just i didn't it was not on my like vision board that like yoga instructors in bali
01:28:28were going to be like reading the almanac of navel and that like you know it was going to be so
01:28:32popular among like high school and college students we've been talking about that me and george been
01:28:36talking about this a lot and obviously we spoke about it last night the the tam for the book of
01:28:41elon is way bigger than it is for navel but the potential hurdle of ideological disagreement is
01:28:49also greater so again it's the boobies on the on the like popularity graph right lots of people
01:28:55that go ah i've got to and then lots of people who go never as opposed i don't know how many people
01:29:01have a fervent dislike of navel most people probably didn't know you should really read this
01:29:06no one's gonna go yeah exactly no one's gonna go you should really read this and someone say who
01:29:11is the book about yeah yeah so i i'm prepared i spent a lot of time being like answering the
01:29:16question who is navel um but i think once it's there's just such a weird book like it's a weird
01:29:22title it's a weird book it was like crafted for a niche and just like broke out but elon is one of
01:29:28the most famous people on earth right like um and i think he's he's not a polished presenter the way
01:29:35steve jobs is i don't think people necessarily think of him as a like font of wisdom or like
01:29:40deep introspection but he has fucking incredible ideas like when you can really access them like
01:29:47and he's his life story is just so so many ups and downs so many hard lessons and he is a really good
01:29:55communicator actually like he's he's got a gift for distilling things and bringing people along and
01:29:59finding a key metric like honing a team organizing people around a mission and you know some of these
01:30:05ideas in this book you know about being multi-planted he's been talking about for 20 years but we still
01:30:10there's still so much to learn from them um you're just they're battle-tested ideas i think in a lot
01:30:17of cases what are the tactical principles what are the ways that you've changed your life having gone
01:30:25through the process of writing this book i think the first would be my focus on hydration hydration
01:30:33makes a massive difference in how you perform and hydration is more than just drinking water element
01:30:38is a tasty electrolyte drink with everything you need and nothing that you don't each grab and go
01:30:43stick pack contains a science-backed electrolyte ratio of sodium potassium and magnesium with no
01:30:49sugar no coloring no artificial ingredients or any other bs free shipping in the us for a sample pack
01:30:56by going to drink lmnt.com modern wisdom if you don't like it for any reason they will return
01:31:03your money and you can keep the box that's drink lmnt.com is he doing all four is he doing all of
01:31:12them okay yep there you go oh wow showing the product as well holy shit thank you dude that's a
01:31:20that's a wonderful that's a wonderful gift that's the best gift that you could have given me is a
01:31:24free ad read because now i don't need to do it how fun how [ __ ] fantastic i am also a deep personal
01:31:29fan of element i drink it after every workout and every sweat session it's [ __ ] great i don't know
01:31:34who the other sponsors are you're off the hook that was the rest thank [ __ ] for that beyond i
01:31:38felt i'm getting getting jump scared by my own ad reads um what have you applied to your life beyond
01:31:46eight sleep and element what have you applied to your life after learning about elon i think it is
01:31:51uh the most meta is this sense that i'm capable of more than i think um it has encouraged me to
01:31:57do more things in parallel back to the like parallel gestation thing like i'm trying to
01:32:01run scribe media which is a publishing company and write a book actually work on three at the same
01:32:05time and podcast and invest so like there's it gave me some fuel in the fire to be like no this is this
01:32:15is doable and sane and if these things are all sort of like stacking and compounding it is sane to do
01:32:21them all in parallel over a long period of time um the bias to urgency i'm not working 100 hour weeks
01:32:29and running around the world on my private jet but i do have a much stronger discipline around like
01:32:34where is the bottleneck what's the most important problem to solve how what is the most effective way
01:32:39to solve it how can i physically go to the problem how can i pull in the right people um i think like
01:32:44the idea of a war room is kind of underrated of like what's the bottleneck gather the people like
01:32:49attack it the rest will kind of take care of itself um is not how a lot of companies are run
01:32:54frankly like a lot of them are like on a weekly meeting do this do that like standard schedule
01:32:58procedural as opposed to tactical yeah what is the issue let's go after that is let's go through it
01:33:03you know when i think about this it makes me think about the difference between watching a UFC
01:33:08and boxing when you watch boxing does it's this we it's almost ceremonial this sort of monarch like
01:33:15weird vestige of people dothing their caps we must remember that today is a grand entry for the 45th
01:33:23anniversary and you're like what the fuck whereas it's just at the UFC it's rock music and the guys
01:33:29in the middle of the octagon they start hitting each other um and it kind of feels a little bit
01:33:33like that that when you have why do we why do we have an agenda why do we always have the same
01:33:38agenda for each of these meetings why can't it just be what is the problem given that the rate limit is
01:33:45constrained by the slowest moving heart or person or department or whatever it might be and if you
01:33:50continue to open those up the total like capacity of the pipeline increases yeah i think most leaders
01:33:57are by default delegating the pace of the entire organization to someone or something but they don't
01:34:05exactly know who but also by doing that by delegating by it not being them even if they're not
01:34:12purposefully delegating it or whatever they're off the hook yeah i don't need to be moving that fast
01:34:17i don't you know and it's a really good point to say if you've worked super hard for a good while
01:34:22like that's the point at which you get to kick back and matthew mcconaughey with your feet up on the
01:34:28table like that's the point the point of working that hard was to get to escape velocity which is
01:34:33perfectly fine depending on like what you're optimizing for again like i'm this is not a
01:34:36blueprint that like everybody should follow it is a like explanation of how one person who is unique
01:34:43and special happens to operate and take whatever works for you and leave the rest fuck yeah eric
01:34:49jorgensen ladies and gentlemen where should people go to check out everything you've got going uh
01:34:52ejorgensen.com is my personal site elonmuskbook.org has everything for this book um you can read it for
01:34:59free or listen to it for free if you want to if you want to buy it on amazon rock on um check out the
01:35:04navel book and the navel episode we did 800 episodes five years ago wow that is a good one i saw that
01:35:12you just released on smart friends the four hour conversation on your youtube yeah we just updated
01:35:17navel and i updated the audiobook so i got to like spend a day deep conversation and kind of be like
01:35:22all right which of these ideas hold which are refined which have you changed um it was a really
01:35:27cool like full circle kind of experience unreal uh what are you doing next can you say i'm i the one i
01:35:34can say is i'm doing a book with david senra for distilling some of the maxims and the key stories
01:35:39from the like founders archive that will fucking rip which i think will be it's so fun to work on
01:35:44i think will be amazing um the other one i don't have like a thumbs up yet so i don't want to say
01:35:48that one publicly uh well i'm looking forward to getting you in the center in here and we can have
01:35:51a chat that would be amazing fuck yeah appreciate you man thank you

Key Takeaway

Achieving the impossible requires combining massive purpose-driven risk with a first-principles 'Idiot Index' to eliminate unnecessary parts and a maniacal urgency that treats every 12-hour delay as a loss of future revenue.

Highlights

Failure is irrelevant unless it is catastrophic, a principle that drives a 50% deadline success rate to ensure goals remain aggressive.

The 'Idiot Index' calculates the gap between raw material costs and finished part prices, identifying cases like a $13,000 steel part that cost only $200 in raw materials.

Tesla functions as the only car company actively driving prices down by simplifying vehicles and adding volume, contrasting with the Ford F-150 which costs 3x its inflation-adjusted 1980s price.

Maniacal urgency allows tasks that typically take two weeks to be completed in four hours through physical presence at the bottleneck and immediate action.

SpaceX reduced space launch costs by multiple orders of magnitude by moving from a government-style procurement model to first principles engineering and vertical integration.

Success compounds when working at a thousand-fold productivity level for 30 years, leveraging the accumulation of capital, allies, and technical mystique.

Timeline

The Role of Purpose and High-Stakes Risk

  • Purpose acts as a structural pillar that enables extreme productivity and high risk tolerance.
  • Failure only matters when it results in total catastrophe for the mission.
  • Missions like Tesla and SpaceX succeeded despite long odds because they were driven by a sense of purpose rather than simple financial motivation.

Information extracted from millions of words of source material reveals that purpose is the hidden driver behind massive productivity. This drive allows for a 'risk-on' bias where failure is accepted as a standard part of the process unless it ends the company. Thousands of people resonate with these principles, as evidenced by millions of copies of the Navalmanac being gifted and shared globally.

The Singular Nature of Multi-Industry Success

  • Running Tesla and SpaceX in parallel is an unprecedented feat of leadership and funding.
  • A combination of David Goggins' intensity, Richard Feynman's physical brilliance, and Napoleon's strategic will defines this singular character.
  • Dark traits and personal costs are often the trade-offs for achieving two top-10 global company rankings simultaneously.

The ability to lead two of the world's most important companies at the same time is compared to a single individual founding both Facebook and Google. This level of output requires a specific mix of traits including a relentless bias for action and an unconventional approach to physics and engineering. While detractors point to a lack of ethics or excessive leverage, the scale of the resulting infrastructure is undeniable.

Maniacal Urgency and the 50% Deadline Rule

  • Aggressive deadlines are set with only a 50% chance of being met to avoid conservative planning.
  • A 1,000x productivity advantage comes from compounding wins and capital over decades.
  • Missing a deadline is acceptable by design if it pushes the absolute limit of what is possible.

Productivity is not a marginal improvement but a multi-order magnitude gain when urgency is applied to the correct limiting factor. Setting impossible targets ensures that even when a deadline is missed, the team has achieved more than they would have with a conservative schedule. This approach led to achieving the 'impossible' metrics required for a trillion-dollar compensation package that shareholders initially thought was absurd.

The Bias to Build and Lowering Costs

  • An economy only exists if physical goods are being manufactured and improved.
  • Tesla works to drive prices down through volume and simplification while traditional competitors increase them.
  • Fear of failure is the primary cause of failure because it prevents a project from ever starting.

The philosophy of manufacturing centers on the idea that wealth is tied to the production of stuff rather than the printing of money. Companies are divided into those that work hard to charge more and those that work hard to charge less, with Tesla following the Amazon model of cost reduction. This mindset is supported by a belief that 99% of people fail simply because they rationalized not attempting their dreams.

Leading from the Trenches and Creating Emergencies

  • Urgency is created for its own sake to maintain a high organizational 'speed training' pace.
  • Physical presence at the site of a problem is mandatory for effective troubleshooting.
  • Self-care and traditional work-life balance are sacrificed for 100-hour work weeks and sleeping on factory floors.

Stories from the Boring Company and SpaceX illustrate a lifestyle where a CEO wakes up, grabs a phone, and goes to 'war' immediately. This involves calling engineers at 2 AM to start drilling holes or interviewing and hiring a head of machining in 20 minutes on a Saturday. By manufacturing emergencies even when none exist, a leader ensures the organization never loses its edge or its sense of mission.

Trauma as Fuel and the Edge of Human Limit

  • A traumatic childhood creates an internal furnace of angst that drives lifelong competition.
  • Highly successful individuals often serve as 'scouts' who explore the absolute limits of human capability for the benefit of others.
  • Physical and psychological limits, including catatonic states and night terrors, are the costs of extreme achievement.

The drive to never stop comes from a childhood marked by verbal abuse and physical bullying, creating a person who is uncomfortable with peace. This results in a tolerance for pain where one might sell all possessions and sleep under a desk to solve a production bottleneck. While this lifestyle is a burden to the individual, it serves as a scout for humanity, proving what is possible at the 99.999th percentile of effort.

The Engineering Algorithm and the Idiot Index

  • The first step of engineering is to question the requirements and delete unnecessary parts.
  • Doing tasks in parallel rather than sequence can shrink a three-year timeline into one year.
  • The 'Idiot Index' exposes when a company is paying massive markups for simple raw materials.

Designers and manufacturers must work in the same plant to feel the downstream pain of their decisions. The engineering process mandates deleting a part or process first, rather than optimizing something that should not exist. This radical efficiency is applied to everything from rocket engines to car latches, often finding that a $50 part from Home Depot can replace a $1,000 aerospace-grade component.

SpaceX, Starlink, and the Multi-Planetary Mission

  • SpaceX began as a philanthropy project to inspire humanity by putting a greenhouse on Mars.
  • Reading textbooks and talking to experts is the primary method for mastering complex technical fields like rocket science.
  • Making life multi-planetary acts as a 'hard drive backup' for human consciousness.

The origin of SpaceX was not a business plan but a frustration with NASA's lack of a Mars strategy. After being spit on by Russian rocket sellers, the decision was made to build rockets from first principles, hiring a hobbyist who built the world's largest garage engine. The ultimate goal is to move life to another planet to ensure resilience against extinction events like comets or pandemics.

The Future of Tesla: Autonomy and Humanoid Robots

  • Humanoid robots represent a larger potential market than electric vehicles.
  • Real-world AI training data is collected by recording the top 1% of human drivers and workers.
  • Vertical integration into lithium refineries and battery production is necessary to overcome supply constraints.

Tesla is transitioning from a car company to an AI and robotics company, using the same vision-based AI from self-driving cars to power humanoid robots. These robots are trained on massive datasets of humans performing tasks like cracking eggs or folding laundry. The long-term vision includes factories on the moon and a transition to an era of abundance powered by autonomous labor and massive battery storage.

The Breadth of Skill and Unreasonable Leadership

  • Fluency in both physics and economics is required to truly control a product's destiny.
  • Memory tricks and memory palaces are used to track technical details across five different companies.
  • Progress depends on 'unreasonable men' who refuse to accept social risks or the desire to be liked.

Success is attributed to a breadth of skill that allows for micromanagement in technical details while maintaining a high-level economic view. By using memory techniques, a leader can recall specific project bottlenecks several layers deep in the organization, building loyalty and authority. Ultimately, the refusal to be swayed by public opinion or the status quo is what allows for the disruption of entrenched industries.

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