“Trump Might Actually Do the Unthinkable”

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CChris Williamson
경제 뉴스

스크립트

00:00:00do you reckon there's going to be internal strife for the next 10 years right so um back
00:00:05to the young man problem so right now there's a very popular phrase called hyperdamy uh i'm not
00:00:11sure if you know what hypergamy means you know what it means why are you looking at me as hypergamy
00:00:17he's saying that's because i'm a high value male that's right yeah yeah yeah so so the problem is
00:00:22that the majority of men young men are not able to find a suitable mate uh because one way to
00:00:30reduce um men young men's like violent tendencies is to get married have children and then become
00:00:37productive members of society but if like you know the majority of young men cannot get married
00:00:43then what's the solution well you send them off to war right so um there are two possibilities ahead
00:00:51for the united states um how do you deal with these millions of young men who cannot get laid
00:00:56basically well you send off some of the war to die if you did that if you had conscription it's possible
00:01:02they they would just rather fight you okay so another solution is to colonize uh north and south america
00:01:10to turn the entire western hemisphere into a u.s colony and they do not already with venezuela
00:01:15they'll probably do that with canada they're talking about greenland uh you think that realistically
00:01:20america would try and colonize canada greenland and venezuela not just uh we're going to take a couple
00:01:28of leaders here and have soft power they would actually try to yes i do because there's no want
00:01:33to stop the united states from doing this why why wouldn't the united states just take alberta what's
00:01:37stopping the united states from just taking alberta and and that's all is that not like canada has what
00:01:43army yeah yeah yeah the reason he's saying alberta is that's where the oil is so one of the things so this is
00:01:49this is this is something i was right so with my classes at the university of chicago so not for
00:01:54the reason of the exact dynamic i won't quite go that far right but what i um so having studied
00:02:00violent populism um i um watched over 200 of uh president trump's speeches as he was running for
00:02:08president 200 all the way through i went to four of his rallies which didn't mean you just go to his
00:02:13rallies and listen to a trump rally that means you get there at 8 a.m you're already three hours late
00:02:19because you can and you can still barely see the stage by the way and you have to wait 10 hours and
00:02:25you can't move if you move you lose your place in line and you're all the way at the back so that's
00:02:30why those hundreds of people are dropping over there so what do you do i surveyed them i talked to
00:02:36them i actually literally that's what it surveys and so i learned a lot about what was underneath
00:02:43uh the support for trump i also went to harris rallies and um it was easier to get there you get
00:02:48a 330 you still get a seat so it's a little different there so but nonetheless um uh nonetheless what he is
00:02:55describing uh here you could see a lot of uh in some of what president trump was saying he was planting
00:03:02some seeds but come on bombastic this guy gregarious talky talky like isn't this a cool talk well that
00:03:09would be realistic well hold it hold it that was all fine chris until after the election it wasn't just
00:03:15uh talky talky it got seriously seriously okay so so i'm not telling you i'm not telling you i immediately
00:03:23jump to the conclusion oh that would be a 99 likelihood of happening i work in percentages okay
00:03:30what do you think is the percentage likelihood that greenland or canada or venezuela are uh
00:03:37brought into the american uh remit i think it turns hugely on um what happens with this election in
00:03:462028 so if we are internally divided as i think there's likely to be i think this external expansion
00:03:54is likely to go down however if it turns out that this is not just we're not internally divided but
00:04:00we see the mago red wave get stronger and stronger and stronger there's a very good chance that what um
00:04:07jang is talking about will come to be uh because these are this is what i mean by it's up to us chris this is
00:04:14wild i did not think that i was going to find out that we were maybe going to invade canada and
00:04:19greenland and venezuela why not i just it seems so intense it's so absurd and and and and this would
00:04:26be it would be invasion i'd agree with you well i'm not i'm not again the probabilities here so let's be
00:04:33clear i'm not saying this is 70 likely so i deal in the world of probabilities but if we're talking about
00:04:40where there is a world where this is even a 20 probability this changes everything the idea then
00:04:46if it's even 20 likely and notice what's happening with carney notice what's happening with the leaders
00:04:52i don't think carney believes it's 80 likely but if you watch his speech listen to a speech in munich this
00:04:58year he certainly thinks this is there's something on the horizon and president trump has been talking
00:05:04directly to him about moving the border with canada and the treaty and abandoning the 1908 treaty with
00:05:12canada this has been a direct conversation with the prime ministers of canada in the last year and a
00:05:18half this is i don't say it means it's it's a certainty chris that's going too far but to ignore that this
00:05:26is then translating into taking uh venezuela's oil uh serious uh war planning now for uh greenland
00:05:35the war planning doesn't equal conquest chris but i think we're making a mistake to just simply dismiss
00:05:41it as oh this is just talk i i i wasn't dismissing it i didn't even know that it was an option on the
00:05:46table what do you think is more likely china into taiwan or the u.s into one of canada greenland
00:05:53venezuela oh i vote for the the latter with the u.s so i think that 100 no way all of this talk all
00:06:00of this talk that people are the processors the microchip all of the china into taiwan so i've been
00:06:06arguing for decades more likely that we're going to go into canada venezuela if china plays its cards
00:06:11right taiwan is going to fall right into china's lap i've been so president chen brought me to taiwan
00:06:17in january 2003 i was one of five air power experts this was the president of taiwan okay for a two-day
00:06:24conference with the president of taiwan he wanted the answer to the question this is january 2003
00:06:30what should taiwan do if china preemptively attacks taiwan while the united states is preemptively
00:06:37attacking iraq so remember we had this thing called the iraq war well for taiwan that was a very scary
00:06:45situation so for two days i was with the president and also with the top of the air force and we were
00:06:52discussing the no kidding discussions here and i also got windows into their national security and i got
00:06:59the polls that is the internal polls which there was nothing classified inside no nda so i'm not
00:07:04revealing anything that i'm not supposed to be but i'm telling you that one of the absolute issues
00:07:10here with taiwan is there's a large part of the population that sees growth over there and they're
00:07:17happy to get some growth called taipei 101 so there's a whole lot underneath this chris doesn't mean
00:07:23taiwan is certain to um uh you know sort of go in china's way but what i've been arguing for some
00:07:31time is that if china just continues to grow then what's going to happen is uh it will eventually dwarf
00:07:39taiwan even more than it does today and a lot of folks in taiwan are going to want to make money in
00:07:44china and we're already talking about that what i want to do is not deny any of these things put them
00:07:51perspective take a look at a community like the united states which is a community common value so
00:07:56on and so forth has there ever been deep divisions how did we handle them so when we take a look as for
00:08:04example immigration right from the beginning of the founding there's a dread of migrants the scotch-irish
00:08:13that came here were marginalized profoundly and so on and so forth okay along with these evolutions of
00:08:23immigration and so on and so forth which we were built on we needed okay there's also tension within
00:08:30though between those who wanted it and didn't want it the businessmen wanted cheap labor the others
00:08:36didn't want it the workers didn't want it okay so we have to enter these from my point of view and
00:08:44i agree with you absolutely in what's coming i simply have a different sense of proportionality
00:08:52that it's not as profoundly serious as we who've never experienced it before would want to make it be
00:08:58there's precedent for it there's a manner in which the americans have historically gone through this
00:09:04my pointing to the civil war was simply the most extreme situation that even that we recovered from
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핵심 요약

Internal domestic divisions and demographic pressures create a distinct probability for future territorial expansion into neighboring regions like Canada, Greenland, and Venezuela.

하이라이트

  • Millions of young men unable to find suitable mates face potential solutions involving military conscription or territorial expansion.

  • A study of over 200 political speeches and attendance at four campaign rallies revealed deep underlying support structures.

  • Internal divisions within the United States drive the increased likelihood of external expansion into regions like Canada and Venezuela.

  • Economic growth and integration within the region make China a more probable beneficiary regarding Taiwan than direct conflict.

  • Historical precedents of severe internal division, such as the Civil War and migration tensions, demonstrate structural recovery capabilities.

타임라인

Demographic Pressures and Territorial Expansion

  • Hypergamy leaves a majority of young men unable to find suitable mates.
  • Military conscription and territorial colonization serve as prospective solutions for managing unattached populations.
  • Potential targets for territorial expansion include Canada, Greenland, and Venezuela.

Unattached young men with violent tendencies present a major social challenge for society. Traditional methods like war or military service offer one outlet, while colonizing the western hemisphere offers another. Strategic resource locations like Alberta become focal points in these geopolitical discussions.

Political Analysis and Expansion Probabilities

  • Analyzing political dynamics required studying over 200 speeches and attending multiple high-capacity rallies.
  • External expansion probability relies heavily on the trajectory of domestic political divisions.
  • Geopolitical discussions involve direct conversations with international leaders regarding border treaties.

Rigorous field study involves observing large political gatherings firsthand and surveying attendees to understand populist support. While some view these territorial ideas as mere rhetoric, serious war planning and diplomatic communications indicate a non-zero probability that changes long-term foreign policy outlooks.

Geopolitical Comparisons with Taiwan

  • Economic integration makes a peaceful transition for Taiwan more likely than a preemptive military invasion by China.
  • Direct consultations with foreign leaders provided insight into internal national security polls and public sentiment.
  • Continuous economic growth naturally draws regional populations toward larger economic centers.

Historical interactions with foreign leaders reveal that economic gravity often outweighs military conflict. As regional economies expand, local populations increasingly prioritize financial growth and integration over armed resistance, shifting geopolitical outcomes naturally over time.

Historical Precedents of Internal Division

  • Immigration tensions and marginalized groups existed since the founding of the nation.
  • Historical conflicts like the Civil War demonstrate the capacity to recover from extreme internal division.
  • Proportionality matters when evaluating the severity of modern political polarization.

Examining historical immigration patterns reveals recurring friction between cheap labor demands and domestic opposition. Severe domestic crises like the Civil War show that nations can navigate profound internal strife and recover completely, offering perspective on current political anxieties.

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