00:00:00- It's been too long, man.
00:00:01You write these awesome things on the internet.
00:00:03This is the eighth time we've done this now
00:00:05for the people that haven't seen you before.
00:00:06You come up with some of my favorite aphorisms
00:00:08and insights and stuff.
00:00:10And we just do that.
00:00:11We're kind of like the Bonnie Blue
00:00:13of interesting insights about the internet.
00:00:15We're just taking whatever we get.
00:00:17It's high velocity stuff.
00:00:19The first one that I want to get into,
00:00:21the oxytocin paradox.
00:00:22This is one of yours.
00:00:23Oxytocin, the love hormone, can also make people spiteful.
00:00:27Cruelty is not simply the opposite of compassion.
00:00:30It's often adjacent to it.
00:00:32For instance, the platform most dominated
00:00:34by social justice activists, Blue Sky,
00:00:37is also the one with the highest support for assassinations.
00:00:41Beware of those quick to show empathy,
00:00:43for they are often just as quick to show barbarity.
00:00:46- Yeah, so this is a finding
00:00:50that I sort of came across quite recently,
00:00:52but it confirms something I've long known,
00:00:55which is that people who outwardly express a lot of empathy
00:00:59tend to also be equally capable of cruelty
00:01:02to that same extent.
00:01:03And I first learned about this
00:01:07from a book called "Against Empathy"
00:01:10by Paul Bloom, who's a psychologist.
00:01:14And in this book, I think you've had him on the show,
00:01:17in this book, he basically talks about
00:01:21how people tend to assume that empathy
00:01:25is just a good thing overall,
00:01:27that it's not, that we need more empathy,
00:01:29that empathy is in short supply.
00:01:32But really, empathy is in-group loyalty.
00:01:36That's what it is, because we're tribal animals.
00:01:39And what empathy is is when you empathize with someone,
00:01:43the way he describes it is you don't empathize
00:01:46with everybody at the same time.
00:01:47You empathize with select people.
00:01:49And the way he describes it is that
00:01:50empathy is like a spotlight.
00:01:52So you shine it on people,
00:01:55a small group of people at a time,
00:01:56or just an individual at a time.
00:01:58But while you have empathy shined on that person,
00:02:01everybody else is in darkness,
00:02:02which basically means that you don't have
00:02:06any real feelings for that person
00:02:07that's outside of that spotlight.
00:02:09So what this can mean is that if you empathize,
00:02:13so let's take a real-world example.
00:02:15Let's say you're somebody who empathizes
00:02:18with the plight of the Palestinians.
00:02:20So you'll have a lot of love for those people,
00:02:23and you'll be very, very concerned about them.
00:02:25But there's a kind of yin-yang effect
00:02:28where because you have so much concern for them,
00:02:31you have negative concern for Israelis.
00:02:33So it's not like you just have love for one group of people
00:02:38and then everybody else you're sort of neutral to.
00:02:41It can actually have almost like a zero-sum effect.
00:02:44The more empathy you have for one group of people,
00:02:46the less empathy you have for other people.
00:02:49And this is, I think, a major driver
00:02:51of sort of cruelty and spite in the world.
00:02:54When you consider the people that go out there
00:02:56and commit political violence,
00:02:58what you often see is that these people empathize
00:03:00very strongly with one group of people.
00:03:03So again, if we go with the Palestinian analogy,
00:03:06a group like Hamas, for instance,
00:03:08now Hamas have a lot of empathy for Palestinians,
00:03:11at least they do claim to.
00:03:13But then that equates also to hostility,
00:03:17corresponding hostility proportionate to Israelis.
00:03:21You see it also with, again, with the example
00:03:24that I gave in that piece, which is about blue sky.
00:03:27So blue sky obviously is where
00:03:29all the social justice people hang out.
00:03:31It's basically all the refugees from Musk's ex.
00:03:34So these are all people that you would think
00:03:38would be extremely compassionate, extremely sort of empathic.
00:03:42And they are, they are, but only to a small group of people.
00:03:45For example, the left, when they call for empathy,
00:03:48they don't call for empathy for right-wingers.
00:03:51They call for empathy towards immigrants
00:03:54or towards trans people.
00:03:57So their empathy is very selective.
00:04:00And this is why when you look at recent research,
00:04:03you find that the amount of support for assassinations
00:04:07is strongest amongst the people that you would expect
00:04:09to be the most compassionate, basically.
00:04:11- Well, you saw that with Luigi Mangione, right?
00:04:15That he had a manifesto.
00:04:17He was very empathetic toward people
00:04:19who'd been screwed over by healthcare services.
00:04:21People who'd had their healthcare denied
00:04:23and their claims that had been rebuked
00:04:25due to, you know, squirrelly manipulation behind the scenes.
00:04:30And that resulted in him shooting a guy in the head.
00:04:33- Yeah, yeah, so I mean, yeah, so I sort of met Luigi
00:04:41in 2024 and he seemed like a really nice guy, you know?
00:04:46I can't say a single bad thing about him
00:04:47from our conversation.
00:04:48He really did seem like a genuinely nice person.
00:04:50- You spoke to him for a couple of hours, right?
00:04:52- Yeah, he had a two-hour conversation with him
00:04:55because he was, you know, he was a big fan of my writing.
00:04:57And so he became a founding member
00:04:59and then we ended up having a two-hour video call.
00:05:01And yeah, he seemed like,
00:05:03he genuinely seemed like a really nice guy.
00:05:05And I just, you know, did not have any idea
00:05:07that he was planning this.
00:05:09I don't know if he was planning this
00:05:11at the time that I spoke to him, but I wasn't.
00:05:14I mean, although I was shocked, obviously,
00:05:15because when somebody you know is in the news
00:05:17for something like that, of course it's gonna be shocking.
00:05:20But at the same time, it didn't surprise me.
00:05:21From an intellectual point of view, it didn't surprise me.
00:05:24Because I've interacted with some extremely dangerous people.
00:05:28Early in my sort of writing career,
00:05:30I hung around with Al Mahajirun,
00:05:33just to try and find out who they are.
00:05:34And Al Mahajirun is the UK's deadliest jihadist organization.
00:05:39They've been responsible for quite a lot of
00:05:41terrorist attacks on UK soil.
00:05:43And I was sort of hanging out with these people for a while
00:05:47just to find out how their minds work.
00:05:50And they were really, really friendly people.
00:05:52'Cause they thought I was Muslim.
00:05:54Because I speak the same language as them.
00:05:55And so I was able to pretend I was one of them.
00:05:59And they were really, really nice to me.
00:06:01They would, you know, they would like,
00:06:02if they were going to the shop,
00:06:03they would ask me if I wanted anything.
00:06:04They were just kind of like really always concerned,
00:06:07you know, like, and stuff, and they barely knew me.
00:06:10And so, you know, I was kind of like,
00:06:12well, this was a bit strange,
00:06:13but then I'd later learn that one of them
00:06:16went to Syria to become a bomb maker for ISIS.
00:06:21He blew his arm off.
00:06:22Another thing he did was actually, before he did that,
00:06:26he stabbed a guy in the eye
00:06:27for apparently insulting the Prophet Muhammad.
00:06:30And then when he was on bail, he was able to skip,
00:06:33he was able to skip bail.
00:06:35He fled, he went to Syria, became a bomb maker,
00:06:39blew his arm off, and then he got killed in a strike.
00:06:42So, you know, this guy's name was Abu Rahim Aziz.
00:06:45He also used to go by the name Abu al-Brattani.
00:06:49And I think he was actually allowed to leave by MI6
00:06:54so that they could track him and then blow him up.
00:06:56But that's a whole other story.
00:06:57But basically, he was somebody who was really nice.
00:07:00He was a really kind guy. - But also the sort of guy
00:07:02that would say, hey, do you want a grenade bar?
00:07:04I'm going to the corner shop.
00:07:07Would you, do you want some crisps
00:07:09or some chocolate or something?
00:07:11- Yeah, I mean, they were just, you know,
00:07:12they were always looking out for each other.
00:07:14And they had a lot of empathy for each other, you know,
00:07:16and for their fellow Muslims.
00:07:18They had a lot of empathy for them.
00:07:20But then they had no empathy for, for example, Jewish people.
00:07:23I witnessed a lot of antisemitism
00:07:24when I was in Bury Park in Luton,
00:07:27which is just a Muslim sort of enclave.
00:07:31They were very, you know, they were very antisemitic.
00:07:35They dehumanized Jews and especially Israelis.
00:07:40But they had all the empathy in the world for Muslims.
00:07:44And, you know, you see this on the other side as well.
00:07:46You know, you see Israelis who have all the empathy
00:07:48in the world for Jews,
00:07:49but don't have any for the Palestinians.
00:07:51So it's, you know, this is not like just one side.
00:07:53This is a common human trait.
00:07:54You see this everywhere.
00:07:55You see it amongst the left.
00:07:57You see it amongst the right.
00:07:58You even see it amongst centrists.
00:08:00So, you know, when people say,
00:08:02"Oh, we need more empathy," I think, "Mm, do we?"
00:08:04You know, I think maybe the problem is,
00:08:05is that we have sort of selective empathy.
00:08:08And we maybe need to sort of understand
00:08:10that everybody's a human being,
00:08:12not just the people that we empathize with.
00:08:13- Yeah, less tribalism, not more empathy.
00:08:16- Exactly. - Yeah, interesting.
00:08:19Next one, Rumpelstiltskin effect.
00:08:21To name a problem is to tame it.
00:08:23Diagnosing one's suffering makes it feel more meaningful
00:08:26and thus manageable.
00:08:28Even if the diagnosis is wrong,
00:08:30major depressive disorder is easier to live with
00:08:32than anonymous sadness.
00:08:35This is one reason for the recent surge in diagnoses
00:08:37of disorders like depression, autism, and ADHD.
00:08:40And I pulled some data.
00:08:42Anxiety is now the most common mental health condition
00:08:45in the world, so global burden of disease study.
00:08:48359 million people, that's 4.4%, have an anxiety disorder.
00:08:53332 million, that's 4%, have depressive disorders.
00:08:5737 million, bipolar. 23 million, schizophrenia.
00:09:0116 million have eating disorders.
00:09:03That's, I would guess, bringing the Rumpelstiltskin effect
00:09:06into real life.
00:09:07- Yeah, so the Rumpelstiltskin effect takes its name
00:09:13from the fairy tale of Rumpelstiltskin,
00:09:15which most people should be familiar with
00:09:16from their childhood.
00:09:17I vaguely remember it, but what I remember is
00:09:20that basically Rumpelstiltskin is an imp
00:09:22who steals a woman's baby.
00:09:26And in order to get it back, she has to find out his name.
00:09:29And then one day she hears him dancing around a fire,
00:09:32singing about how nobody knows his name
00:09:35because his name is Rumpelstiltskin.
00:09:37So he's not very bright, but after she finds out,
00:09:40she has power over him.
00:09:42So it's the idea of when you name something,
00:09:43you have power over it.
00:09:45And there's a lot of kind of evidence of this
00:09:48because I've actually written about this in detail, actually.
00:09:52When you look at, for example,
00:09:54the ways in which people come to understand themselves,
00:09:59how they come to sort of understand their own identities,
00:10:02often through their ailments.
00:10:04And this can kind of bring them a kind of a sense
00:10:07that they're not in control.
00:10:09Well, at least it gives them more of a sense
00:10:11of control over their problems.
00:10:13So, for example, if you are shy, right,
00:10:18then you might consider that your shyness
00:10:21is a personality defect.
00:10:23And this can be quite hard on people, right?
00:10:25So it can compound the anxiety that you already feel
00:10:30from your shyness by making you believe that you're worthless
00:10:33or that you're defected in some way
00:10:36because it's a personality trait that you can't really grasp.
00:10:39You don't know why you're shy.
00:10:41You don't know why.
00:10:41And so you're just kind of stuck with it.
00:10:44But if somebody says to you,
00:10:46"Oh, no, no, no, you're not shy.
00:10:47"You have social anxiety disorder."
00:10:50Then suddenly you have something that you can direct
00:10:54all of your sort of your frustrations towards.
00:10:57You know, you have something concrete now.
00:10:59You're like, "Oh, okay."
00:11:00So now you can come to understand
00:11:01a little bit more about yourself
00:11:02by learning more about social anxiety disorder.
00:11:05So it helps you to sort of come to terms with your problems.
00:11:09There are many incentives
00:11:10why you would want to labor yourself in such a way.
00:11:12I mean, one of the other incentives
00:11:14is that it kind of takes responsibility from yourself
00:11:18to something that you can't really do much about.
00:11:20So something like your neurochemistry
00:11:23or your genetics or something like that.
00:11:26So you're like, "Okay, well, I can't do anything about it
00:11:29"because this is social anxiety disorder."
00:11:32But then at the same time,
00:11:33this can also prevent you from getting that thing treated
00:11:38because then you can kind of become quite resigned
00:11:40in a sense.
00:11:41I think with kind of labels like this,
00:11:43I think that they can be useful, right?
00:11:45But I think naming only helps
00:11:49if it leads to a tractable next step,
00:11:51a real tangible next step.
00:11:54Because if the label replaces action,
00:11:57then it's just an excuse, right?
00:12:00And I think that's the problem
00:12:01that a lot of people are facing at the moment
00:12:03where they're using the label as an excuse
00:12:05rather than as a motivation for more action.
00:12:07Because if you have,
00:12:08let's go back to the example of social anxiety disorder,
00:12:11but there's two ways to cope with labeling your problem
00:12:14as social anxiety disorder.
00:12:16You can either resign yourself and say,
00:12:18"Well, this is something biological or psychological
00:12:22"that I can't really do anything about.
00:12:23"So let's just not bother trying to fix it."
00:12:25That's one path.
00:12:27The other path is to say,
00:12:28"Okay, so what are the causes of social anxiety disorder?
00:12:31"What are the treatments for social anxiety disorder
00:12:33"and what's gonna work best for me?"
00:12:35Obviously, the latter is a much more healthier attitude.
00:12:38But I think that too many people,
00:12:39what they're doing is they're using the label as an excuse
00:12:43to prevent action.
00:12:44So it actually has the opposite effect.
00:12:46They never fix it.
00:12:48So while I'm not against labeling one's problems
00:12:51in such a way,
00:12:52I think that it should always serve to further action.
00:12:55You should actually,
00:12:55it should be a step towards further action.
00:12:57If it's a step towards inaction,
00:12:59then it's just an excuse basically.
00:13:01- I saw a clip of someone on some women's show
00:13:06talking about, maybe it was Oprah,
00:13:11talking about how obesity is a disease
00:13:14and is the medicine to the disease.
00:13:17And you wouldn't tell somebody that has diabetes
00:13:21that they shouldn't take their insulin
00:13:22because they have a disease
00:13:24and this is medicine for the disease.
00:13:26And it reminds me a little bit of concept creep,
00:13:29that idea that you taught me about probably four years ago,
00:13:32where over time, as racism goes down,
00:13:36numbers of racism, objective numbers of racism,
00:13:38which I know that you've done tons of research into this
00:13:40in your previous life, objective racism goes down,
00:13:44but subjective racism goes up
00:13:45because the demand for racism outstrips its supply.
00:13:49And the only way that you can keep the volume of racism going
00:13:52so that people who comment on it
00:13:53have got something to talk about and campaign against
00:13:56is to broaden the definition of racism
00:13:58until it becomes so large
00:14:00that basically anything could be racism
00:14:02or anything could be transphobia
00:14:04or anything could be xenophobia or anything could be.
00:14:06And the same thing goes for diseases, right?
00:14:09- If you're diagnosing some issue,
00:14:11you had a passage from a book,
00:14:17maybe he was a clinical psychologist or something
00:14:19and he was saying how many patients he'd ever seen
00:14:21in his entire career who'd come in
00:14:23and labeled themselves as just being sad with sadness.
00:14:27And it was three, three patients across thousands
00:14:31had ever come in and said sadness.
00:14:33Everybody else was depression or anxiety or schizophrenia
00:14:37or imposter syndrome or whatever.
00:14:39Even imposter syndrome, right?
00:14:41The fear that other people expect a standard of you
00:14:45which you can no longer meet.
00:14:48That, I mean, there are a million different terms for it.
00:14:52It could be uncertainty.
00:14:54It could be humility and humbleness.
00:14:57It could be low confidence.
00:14:59It could be low self-esteem.
00:15:00It could be low self-belief.
00:15:01But imposter syndrome,
00:15:03to put the word syndrome after something,
00:15:05and it's a cool term and I think it's a useful term
00:15:08to name something, but the danger is of pathologization.
00:15:12And yeah, you're right.
00:15:13If you being able to put a name to imposter syndrome
00:15:18and because of that, you go,
00:15:21I'm gonna learn a little bit about what the research says
00:15:24to do with imposter syndrome.
00:15:25Oh, well, actually, if I do some positive self-appraisal
00:15:28and I journal a little bit and I have a gratitude practice,
00:15:31it seems that I can overcome my imposter syndrome.
00:15:34How wonderful.
00:15:35But if it is, oh, let's say we're in a different world
00:15:39that didn't have Ozempic.
00:15:40I have obesity.
00:15:41It's a disease.
00:15:42I can't lose weight.
00:15:44You have outsourced all of your agency now.
00:15:46So yeah, you have used the naming of it
00:15:51as a roadblock to action as opposed to a GPS
00:15:56that can help you find how you should act.
00:16:00- Exactly, yeah.
00:16:01And yeah, so the passage that you're talking about
00:16:03is from Theodore Dalrymple who's a sort of like clinician,
00:16:08come sort of writer.
00:16:10And yeah, he's sort of talked about this quite a bit.
00:16:14But I mean, medicalization is a real problem.
00:16:16It's been a major problem since the 1970s.
00:16:19I think it's kind of like it's something that's sweeping
00:16:24across pretty much all sort of fields.
00:16:27And the reason is because it's kind of like the alignment
00:16:31of perverse incentives.
00:16:32So you have patients, right?
00:16:33Patients who want easy answers to their problems.
00:16:36So they are incentivized to pathologize.
00:16:39Then you have the medical industry,
00:16:41which is both financially and ideologically incentivized
00:16:45to sort of treat more and more things as medical problems
00:16:48for obvious reasons.
00:16:49Firstly, they make money if they are treating more things.
00:16:55So they have a sort of incentive
00:16:57to sort of just creep their definitions outwards.
00:17:02And then they have ideological issues as well.
00:17:04And this is because obviously they are not looking
00:17:08for signs of health.
00:17:11They're looking for signs of disease.
00:17:15That's essentially what physicians do, right?
00:17:17They don't look for signs of health.
00:17:18They look for signs of disease.
00:17:19And because of that, there's a certain sense
00:17:20of confirmation bias where if you're looking for something,
00:17:23you will tend to find it.
00:17:25And so it's very easy if you have that kind of mindset,
00:17:27the mindset of a clinician or a doctor
00:17:30where you're looking for disease to see it,
00:17:31even if it's not there.
00:17:33And this is, again, this has been shown throughout history.
00:17:38In the sort of, you know, in the 1980s,
00:17:40there was the whole thing about multiple personality disorder.
00:17:43It's now known as dissociative identity disorder.
00:17:46And this was basically from like, you know,
00:17:49you can actually trace the development of this,
00:17:52what is essentially like a kind of moral panic.
00:17:54I don't believe that multiple personality disorder
00:17:57or dissociative identity disorder are real things.
00:18:01I think that they're actually fictions
00:18:03because I've actually looked at the history
00:18:04and it really began in sort of like the late 1970s
00:18:08where I think there was one case of somebody claiming
00:18:11to have multiple personalities.
00:18:13And this case went kind of viral
00:18:15as things might go viral in those days,
00:18:16which was through newspapers.
00:18:18And after this, suddenly loads of people
00:18:20started coming forward saying that they also had this issue.
00:18:23And what's interesting is that the number
00:18:26of alternate identities that people claim to have
00:18:30increased over time.
00:18:31So I think like initially people average
00:18:34one alternative personality.
00:18:36And then apparently by like the 1990s,
00:18:39there was an average of about 17.
00:18:40It was absolutely ridiculous.
00:18:42Like just more people, just more and more,
00:18:44they're having more and more alternate identities, you know,
00:18:47and there's no real sort of like neurology behind it.
00:18:50It's just complete sort of nonsense.
00:18:52So, you know, this to me is a very good example
00:18:56of this whole pathologization sort of pandemic as I call it,
00:19:01where even it's not just that definitions increase,
00:19:04but whole diseases can be invented out of nothing
00:19:07simply because people want to put a name on their discomfort.
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00:20:08Malingering between 20% and 40% of undergraduates
00:20:13at many elite American universities
00:20:15are now registered as disabled.
00:20:17In the UK, one quarter of the entire population
00:20:20now identifies as disabled.
00:20:22The rewards for claiming a disability
00:20:24now outweigh the stigma and those hurt most
00:20:27by all the pretenders are ultimately those
00:20:29with genuine disabilities.
00:20:30- Yeah, so we're kind of living in a world now
00:20:35where I don't really see much stigma towards disabled people,
00:20:40at least not institutional stigma.
00:20:42I see a lot more benefits being given to people
00:20:46who claim to have disabilities.
00:20:47So in the example that I give,
00:20:49if you look at universities like elite universities
00:20:52such as Stanford, Harvard, Yale,
00:20:55they have really high percentages of disabled students
00:20:58or at least students who claim to be disabled.
00:21:00And when you look at why this is,
00:21:02you see it's pretty obvious.
00:21:04If you are registered as disabled
00:21:06with one of these universities,
00:21:07then you get extra time on exams.
00:21:09That's just one of the benefits you get,
00:21:10but you also get other benefits as well.
00:21:12But that's the main benefit,
00:21:14probably the most lucrative benefit.
00:21:16And so you get a lot of rich kids.
00:21:19It's weird because when you look at the people
00:21:21who are primarily claiming disability,
00:21:24it tends to be the rich kids,
00:21:26which is quite an odd sort of correlation, right?
00:21:30And it seems to be because they are the ones
00:21:33who can pay doctors to essentially
00:21:35fabricate their disabilities.
00:21:37- Oh, no. (laughs)
00:21:40- So yeah, so basically these kids now
00:21:43are getting extra time in exams
00:21:45because they're basically saying,
00:21:46oh, I have ADHD, I'm on the spectrum.
00:21:49I have some problem,
00:21:52like I have constant pain in my left leg.
00:21:54It could be anything, right?
00:21:56They'll just basically say something,
00:21:58you know, I'm dyslexic or whatever.
00:21:59And so what happens is that these kids
00:22:02basically get the extra time in exams.
00:22:05And why this is bad,
00:22:06I mean, it's obviously bad for being dishonest,
00:22:09but it's extra bad because it essentially makes it harder
00:22:13for people with genuine disabilities to be believed,
00:22:16like when they have a disability.
00:22:18Because it is true that there are some people
00:22:19who have disabilities that are not obvious
00:22:21that require a physician to actually do a check on them
00:22:24to find out.
00:22:25You know, I have an aunt, for example,
00:22:26who has osteoporosis,
00:22:28and it's not obvious watching her even walk
00:22:31that she has osteoporosis,
00:22:33but she actually does have it because it's all,
00:22:36you know, from x-rays,
00:22:37you can see that her bones are basically crumbling.
00:22:40And so, you know, it's actually quite common
00:22:44where somebody can have a disability, but it's not obvious.
00:22:46And so if you have like between 20% and 40% of everybody
00:22:50claiming to have a disability,
00:22:51then the people who actually have a disability
00:22:52get less attention, they're not believed as much,
00:22:56they're treated with skepticism.
00:22:58So not only are we creating a victimhood culture,
00:23:01but we're also creating a cynical culture
00:23:03where the people who genuinely need help won't be believed.
00:23:06So, yeah, it's a pretty bad way, yeah.
00:23:09- Sloppaganda.
00:23:10More online articles are now written by AI than by humans,
00:23:13and research is increasingly finding that AI is better
00:23:16at persuading people than people are.
00:23:18Who wins in a world of unlimited propaganda?
00:23:21Not those with the best arguments,
00:23:22but those with the most slopp.
00:23:24This is similar to Moloch's bargain.
00:23:26When LLMs compete for votes or social media likes,
00:23:29they push lies and rage bait to win,
00:23:31even when explicitly instructed to stay grounded and honest.
00:23:34If chatbots conclude that getting our attention
00:23:36requires lying to us, is the AI misaligned or are we?
00:23:43- Yeah, so there's been a lot of talk about
00:23:46the kind of AI-driven disinformation age
00:23:49where basically nobody will be able to know what's true
00:23:53and everybody's gonna believe lies
00:23:54and all this kind of stuff.
00:23:55And I mean, yeah, that's probably part of it.
00:23:59I don't think it's as serious as people are claiming.
00:24:02I don't think the serious part of this
00:24:04is that people are gonna believe lies,
00:24:06because people have always believed lies.
00:24:10If you go back throughout any point in history,
00:24:13there were a lot of consensus beliefs
00:24:16that were ultimately proved to be wrong.
00:24:18So I don't actually think that people believing falsehoods
00:24:20is necessarily a bad thing.
00:24:21I think most of what people believe,
00:24:23as opposed to what they know, is false anyway.
00:24:26I think that the bigger problem
00:24:28is not the dissolution of truth,
00:24:31but the dissolution of trust.
00:24:33I think that's far more important,
00:24:34because a society can survive without truth
00:24:38pretty much most of the time.
00:24:40As long as you have very basic truths,
00:24:42like knowing that gravity is a thing, for example,
00:24:45as long as you have basic truths, society can survive.
00:24:48You don't need complex truths for society to survive.
00:24:51And history shows us that it's demonstrated
00:24:53that beyond reasonable doubt.
00:24:56But trust is a whole different ballgame.
00:24:59A society can't survive without trust,
00:25:03because pretty much everything depends on
00:25:07being able to trust other people in society.
00:25:10If you can't trust other people,
00:25:12then you don't have a society.
00:25:13It's literally the glue that binds a society together.
00:25:17And what I think is a problem
00:25:19is not that people will believe falsehoods.
00:25:21I think the problem is that the cost
00:25:24of determining what's actually true is gonna become so high.
00:25:27It's gonna require so much effort
00:25:29that people are essentially gonna give up
00:25:31really valuing truth as a principle.
00:25:34- This is one of my favorites from you, reality apathy.
00:25:37When the sheer volume of conflicting information
00:25:39makes the effort of finding the truth
00:25:41costlier than the value of knowing it,
00:25:43people give up trying to be accurate
00:25:45and instead choose whatever bullshit stinks least.
00:25:47Slop doesn't just threaten the truth,
00:25:49but the very worth of truth.
00:25:50And it's this sort of overwhelm.
00:25:54The goal of propaganda isn't to make you believe
00:25:57any one narrative sometimes.
00:25:59It's simply to make you more pliable
00:26:01at not wanting to believe anything.
00:26:05Earlier on today, in one of the old group chats
00:26:08from the guys that used to work for me in Newcastle,
00:26:10one of the guys said,
00:26:11is anybody else's algorithm getting peppered
00:26:15with all of this Epstein stuff at the moment?
00:26:17These are blue collar dudes from the Northeast of the UK.
00:26:21Maybe they're working in London or something.
00:26:23This is not, Epstein is not supposed
00:26:25to sort of cross their threshold.
00:26:27And it's obviously hit a limit at a volume
00:26:29where they think, holy shit,
00:26:31like this is so much Epstein stuff.
00:26:34I've just seen, I'm now convinced
00:26:37that he's playing Fortnite in fucking Israel.
00:26:39I don't know what to believe anymore.
00:26:41And that's literally reality apathy.
00:26:43And it was so funny to see that message come in
00:26:46and think that this is the overwhelm of information
00:26:49and conflicting points of view going in opposite directions,
00:26:52literally happening in front of my eyes.
00:26:54- Yeah, and I think one of the challenges going forward
00:26:59is gonna be trying to convince people
00:27:01that it's actually worth pursuing the truth.
00:27:04I think more than actually convincing them
00:27:05of any particular truth,
00:27:07just convincing them of the value of truth
00:27:09is gonna be extremely important
00:27:11because we're essentially entering a world of virtual reality.
00:27:15You can essentially create your own reality now.
00:27:18You can do it both figuratively
00:27:19through social media echo chambers,
00:27:21but you can also do it literally
00:27:23by essentially just sequestering yourself in your bedroom
00:27:28and living your entire life through your headset
00:27:31or your laptop screen or whatever,
00:27:34and just using AI to just generate whatever you want,
00:27:37whatever reality you want.
00:27:40This is not far away.
00:27:41I mean, there's recently been, I think it's Cdance,
00:27:44this new Chinese sort of video generation tool
00:27:48which is just insane. - Cdance.
00:27:50- Cdance, yeah.
00:27:51I think it's called Cdance, yeah.
00:27:53- Is that like Sora, it's Chinese Sora?
00:27:56- Much, much, much better than Sora.
00:27:58It's like a whole generation ahead of Sora,
00:28:01ahead of VO3,
00:28:03ahead of all the best frontier models in the West.
00:28:06This is something completely wild.
00:28:08I think China has got an edge in video generation
00:28:11because they don't have copyright laws,
00:28:13or at least they don't really care about copyright very much,
00:28:15whereas the West has an advantage in text-based generative AI
00:28:20because they don't have censorship laws.
00:28:22So there's this trade-off.
00:28:23- Whichever market has the poorest protections
00:28:27will get the most progress.
00:28:28- Yeah, basically, yeah,
00:28:29because that seems to me to be the bottleneck.
00:28:31- Oh, funny.
00:28:32Yeah, so you can make, oh, is that who made,
00:28:35I saw a pretty famous Dragon Ball Z recreation 3D thing.
00:28:40Have you seen this, is that made from that?
00:28:44Okay, I know exactly what you mean.
00:28:46And I saw it last night.
00:28:47And I remember thinking, fucking hell, that's really good.
00:28:51And they're still trying to use cell shading to make it,
00:28:54it's not supposed to look like people.
00:28:56It's supposed to look like cartoon people, but it's in 3D.
00:28:59And it's significantly better than Dragon Ball Z
00:29:03from a design standpoint.
00:29:04So yeah, I wondered what that was.
00:29:07Is that Sora?
00:29:07That seems really good.
00:29:08Is that fucking Nano Banana 5?
00:29:10What the fuck is going on?
00:29:11But it was this new thing that you're talking about.
00:29:13- Yeah, I think it's from ByteDance,
00:29:15which is the company that created TikTok and--
00:29:17- CapCut.
00:29:18- Yeah, basically CapCut and all the rest of that stuff, yeah.
00:29:21But it's wild.
00:29:22So we're basically entering this kind of virtual reality age
00:29:26where people can essentially create their own reality.
00:29:29Whatever they want to believe,
00:29:30they can make it at least seem true enough
00:29:33by curating information online.
00:29:37So yeah, we need to teach people to actually value truth
00:29:40as a species if we want to actually progress.
00:29:43- What was that line around dead internet theory,
00:29:47people being worried that all of the content on the internet
00:29:50is just going to be made by robots,
00:29:53we're worried about the fact that unthinking,
00:29:58replicative automatons are going to be producing
00:30:01most of the information that we see online.
00:30:04The future that we fear will come to pass
00:30:08has already come to pass
00:30:10because most people blindly just repost
00:30:12what they see in any case.
00:30:13Like we're worried about the fact
00:30:15that these disembodied fucking AIs are posting stuff.
00:30:19Meanwhile, someone that doesn't read an article
00:30:23or watch a video outside of the first 15 seconds
00:30:27decides to spew the half-baked opinion, which isn't theirs.
00:30:31You know, they're being marionetted
00:30:32by the few original thinkers that came before them
00:30:35and now just saying the nearest close, what was it?
00:30:40The new hill to die on that they've just decided
00:30:46they plant this flag and like this five minute old opinion
00:30:49is the new thing that they're going to wrap
00:30:52their entire identity around.
00:30:53You're already doing, the dead internet theory
00:30:57has been here since social media was here.
00:30:59People were unthinking in the way that they reposted
00:31:02and commented on stuff.
00:31:03They weren't being subtle and nuanced.
00:31:06And now all that you're worried about,
00:31:08it's the exact same as people being worried
00:31:10about self-driving cars that are significantly safer
00:31:14than humans are, but they've got a combination
00:31:16of naturalistic fallacy and some weird preference
00:31:19that they'd rather die by a human driver
00:31:21than be saved by a robot.
00:31:23And it's kind of the same, well, you know,
00:31:24I'd rather be lied to by an unthinking human idiot
00:31:29than convinced by an unthinking robot super genius.
00:31:33- Yeah, I mean, few people are willing to admit
00:31:36the similarities between humans and chatbots.
00:31:39You know, like there's a lot of people saying,
00:31:41oh, you know, well, you know,
00:31:44these chatbots aren't intelligent,
00:31:45they're just predicting the next token.
00:31:46But then you consider, you know, what are humans doing?
00:31:49You know, a lot of the time,
00:31:51they're just predicting the next token too.
00:31:53They're just, you know, they're just regurgitating,
00:31:55you know, what they've heard and kind of just developing
00:31:58explanations about the world based on that.
00:32:00You know, going by vibes is probably
00:32:02how people would describe it today.
00:32:04So, you know, I think, yeah, one of the good things
00:32:07about sort of the whole AI age is it's really allowed us
00:32:11to understand that a lot of what we thought were
00:32:14unique to humans are actually just basic algorithms,
00:32:16you know, just ways that we organize information,
00:32:18the way that we generate beliefs.
00:32:21A lot of it is, you know, people don't really understand
00:32:22what they're saying.
00:32:23They're just kind of regurgitating what they heard.
00:32:25And that is essentially what a chatbot does in a sense.
00:32:28And so it helps us to really understand how automated
00:32:32so much of our belief formation is.
00:32:35It's why we need to, you know, have more agency.
00:32:37And actually, if we want to be indistinguishable,
00:32:40if we want to be distinguishable from chatbots,
00:32:43then we need to actually sort of,
00:32:45we need to strengthen the one thing that we have
00:32:47that chatbots can't replace, and that's agency.
00:32:50The ability to actually act independently
00:32:54and to actually think about what you're doing
00:32:56rather than simply reacting to your circumstances.
00:32:59- 1% rule.
00:33:02In online communities, around 1% of users
00:33:04produce almost all of the content.
00:33:06As such, what you see online is not representative
00:33:08of humanity, but merely a loud, obsessive,
00:33:10and often narcissistic, psychopathic, and low IQ minority.
00:33:14Social media is literally a freak show
00:33:17and consuming only content that reinforces your views
00:33:20is intellectual incest, producing beliefs
00:33:23that are increasingly frail and deformed.
00:33:25- Yeah, so, you know, when I go online on social media,
00:33:31I often can sometimes, well, I sometimes feel disheartened.
00:33:35You know, it can, I think we've discussed this before,
00:33:38where, you know, you go on social media
00:33:39and you just see just loads of just crap on your timeline
00:33:43and just the most ill-informed opinions
00:33:45and people getting outraged over just nonsense,
00:33:48and it kind of can destroy your faith in the human race.
00:33:53I think Sam Harris, I think the reason why he left Twitter,
00:33:56I think he did describe it that way.
00:33:58He said that when he was on social media,
00:33:59it made him hate humanity.
00:34:01You know, and I can sympathise with that.
00:34:02- Yeah, you referred to it as the most pathological type
00:34:06of telepathy you can imagine, where all he could hear
00:34:09were the worst of everybody else's thoughts.
00:34:11- Yeah, and, you know, and sometimes, you know,
00:34:14it can sort of just really dishearten you.
00:34:16I have a few friends who, you know, on social media,
00:34:18and they sometimes have long breaks
00:34:20because it just completely just really demoralises them
00:34:24when they think, oh, this is what humanity is, you know,
00:34:26all this noise, like all this completely irrational noise
00:34:30just being thrown everywhere.
00:34:31But I think it's always helpful to remember
00:34:35that what you're seeing online
00:34:36is not actually representative of humanity.
00:34:39It's representative of the loudest
00:34:42and often the most obnoxious humans on the planet.
00:34:45And there's a lot of research to support this.
00:34:46You know, there's pretty consistent findings
00:34:49which find that people who are high in certain
00:34:52dark tetrad traits, particularly narcissism and psychopathy,
00:34:57tend to use social media more,
00:34:59but also they tend to engage
00:35:01in online political participation a lot more as well.
00:35:03They tend to engage in sort of online debates
00:35:06and things like that a lot more.
00:35:08And then you also have people who are essentially cluster B,
00:35:13you know, people who are really dramatic.
00:35:14Again, narcissism comes up here.
00:35:16Also histrionic personality disorder.
00:35:19Naturally, you know, the people that are--
00:35:20- What's histrionic personality disorder?
00:35:23- So histrionic is basically when you're a drama queen.
00:35:25Basically, it's when you're attracted, you know,
00:35:27you just want to draw attention to yourself
00:35:30by playing the victim or by, you know, just catastrophizing,
00:35:35just making out like everything's worse than it actually is,
00:35:38just through theatrical behavior, basically.
00:35:41And so naturally this is a good fit for social media,
00:35:45this kind of behavior, you know,
00:35:47because obviously if you want an audience
00:35:48and if you want to play theatrics,
00:35:50where else would you want to go
00:35:51than a place where everybody else is freaking out
00:35:54and everybody's looking to be freaked out, you know?
00:35:56So obviously social media attracts
00:35:58the absolute worst of the human race.
00:36:00It attracts the most impulsive, the most theatrical,
00:36:02the most narcissistic, the most psychopathic,
00:36:05the most low IQ.
00:36:07You know, these are the, you know, often the worst people.
00:36:09Not saying that there aren't good people in social media,
00:36:10of course there are, but when you look at it
00:36:12from a statistical point of view,
00:36:13you have over-representation
00:36:15of the worst elements of humankind.
00:36:17- I also imagine even if you have somebody
00:36:19who is compassionate and well-meaning and delicate
00:36:21and thoughtful and high IQ,
00:36:24they're operating in an environment
00:36:26where they regress to the mean.
00:36:28And the mean is mean, oddly enough.
00:36:30I had one.
00:36:31So for the people that haven't heard us do this before,
00:36:33most of the stuff is me shamelessly shilling Gwyneth's stuff
00:36:36and then he says it back to me.
00:36:37But sometimes I bring stuff from home
00:36:39and I've got some that I brought from home.
00:36:41So this one's kind of related.
00:36:42Recursive red pill learning.
00:36:44Most people get their information from the internet.
00:36:46The stories online which garnered the most attention
00:36:48are the most extreme,
00:36:50meaning that influencers' unrepresentative insights
00:36:52are being trained on other influencers'
00:36:54unrepresentative insights,
00:36:56leading to self-reinforcing antagonism between the sexes.
00:36:59And this came out of a quote that I saw online,
00:37:01which is, "Having a boyfriend is embarrassing now,"
00:37:04which was that Variety article
00:37:06that came out about six months ago,
00:37:07has the same energy as,
00:37:09"The Kardashians made skinny go out of style,"
00:37:12in that neither is true if you just go outside.
00:37:15So the loudest stories, the biggest stories,
00:37:19the ones with the most upvotes on Reddit,
00:37:21by definition are the ones
00:37:23that are the most attention-grabbing,
00:37:24which means that they're the most extreme
00:37:26or unrepresentative.
00:37:27And that means if you spend most of your time
00:37:30learning about the world through the internet,
00:37:32what you see is the least representative presentation
00:37:35of what reality is like over and over again.
00:37:38And it just retrains you to expect that as normality.
00:37:42- Yeah, and I've seen this play out in real time
00:37:45because I've been on social media since around 2014.
00:37:50And in that time,
00:37:51I've stuck with pretty much the same group
00:37:53of sort of mutuals, mostly.
00:37:55And I've actually witnessed an interesting pattern,
00:37:58which is that the people who spend the most time online
00:38:01have become more unhinged and more extreme in their beliefs.
00:38:04This is something I've personally witnessed.
00:38:06I know that this is N equals one,
00:38:08but it's more compelling to me than studies
00:38:10because it's something I've literally witnessed happen
00:38:12in real time.
00:38:14And I think this is also supported by research as well.
00:38:18Some of these, I wrote this article called "Dramageddon"
00:38:22about people talking about a civil war.
00:38:26And this talk has been going on since around 2021,
00:38:29like really serious talk.
00:38:31People like Elon Musk have sort of promoted this idea
00:38:34that there's gonna be a civil war
00:38:36between the left and the right in the US.
00:38:38And some people have said it will probably happen
00:38:41in Europe as well.
00:38:42But it's mainly, it seems to be much more in the US
00:38:44because the US is a lot more politically polarized
00:38:47than Europe is in general.
00:38:50And basically this idea is that a lot of these people
00:38:55think there's gonna be a civil war
00:38:56for precisely the reasons that you gave,
00:38:57which is that what we see is that what goes most viral
00:39:01are the so-called scissor statements,
00:39:03what Scott Alexander called scissor statements,
00:39:06which are statements that are deliberately designed
00:39:08to create debates, create arguments, basically.
00:39:13And this is one of the reasons why the media now,
00:39:18what they seek to do is they don't seek
00:39:20to just tell you things that are true.
00:39:22They seek to actually create statements or news reports
00:39:26that will divide people because when they do that,
00:39:30the two sides will argue over that issue.
00:39:32And in so doing, they will help that thing go viral.
00:39:36So for example, if you're the New York Times
00:39:40and you wanna go viral, how do you go viral?
00:39:42You're not gonna go viral by telling the truth.
00:39:44If you just state facts like about some sort of reporting,
00:39:48you're not really gonna go viral most of the time.
00:39:50But what will go viral is if you make a divisive claim,
00:39:54something that's gonna split the internet into two.
00:39:56So something like, oh, white people are privileged,
00:40:00are too privileged.
00:40:01If you say something like that,
00:40:03that's gonna divide the internet in half.
00:40:05You'll have half of the people be like, yeah,
00:40:07oh, white people are too privileged,
00:40:09we need to do something about it.
00:40:10And then you'll have the other half people say,
00:40:11no, no, no, no, this is all nonsense.
00:40:13This is based on false studies, bad studies,
00:40:16all this stuff.
00:40:17And so then they'll argue over it and in arguing over it,
00:40:20they're gonna make it go viral
00:40:21because then it's gonna appear on everybody's timeline.
00:40:23And then people are gonna be writing a sub-stack about it.
00:40:25They're gonna be making videos about it.
00:40:28And so this all helps the original claim to go viral.
00:40:32And so this is the sort of tragic system in which we're in,
00:40:35in which just stating true things does not go viral,
00:40:39but dividing people,
00:40:40saying things that are gonna divide people does.
00:40:43And this is why I think so many people still believe
00:40:45that there's gonna be a civil war in the US,
00:40:47even though there's just, when you look at reality,
00:40:50there's just no inkling of this whatsoever.
00:40:52The polarization does exist,
00:40:53but the polarization exists amongst the top 1% of people
00:40:57on social media who are mostly engaged in politics.
00:40:59It doesn't really exist very much in the wider world.
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00:42:02to upgrade your selling today.
00:42:04You stress people have more comforts and conveniences
00:42:07than ever, yet reports of unhappiness are at an all-time high.
00:42:10One reason is that discomfort isn't an obstacle to happiness,
00:42:13it's the path to it.
00:42:15For it's only by enduring struggles
00:42:17that we develop the resilience necessary
00:42:18for lasting contentment.
00:42:20And you had a fucking slammer
00:42:21that I've been thinking about so much.
00:42:23Automate only the skills you're willing to lose,
00:42:26that those two feel like they're pretty related.
00:42:29- Yeah, so I mean, we've been told,
00:42:33again, this is another sort of error
00:42:35that the social sciences have for a long time propagated,
00:42:40which is that if somebody is exposed to stress,
00:42:43then it's bad for their health.
00:42:45It can cause trauma or whatever, that horrible word.
00:42:48But I mean, when you actually look at the,
00:42:52not just the data,
00:42:53but when you just look at pretty much all of human history,
00:42:56it's clear that stress can be very beneficial.
00:42:59Not all stress, there's a certain kind of stress
00:43:02and that's called eustress.
00:43:04And so eustress is basically the stress that challenges you,
00:43:08that basically forces you to adjust,
00:43:10that forces you to improve, basically.
00:43:15It's not like the stress of being online
00:43:20and being constantly exposed to just horrific news
00:43:24from around the world.
00:43:25That's bad stress
00:43:26because you can't really do anything about that.
00:43:29If you're stressed because your feed is filled
00:43:32with horrific news stories from around the world,
00:43:36that's just bad stress.
00:43:37It's just gonna stress you out.
00:43:38You can't do anything about it.
00:43:40So it's pointless.
00:43:41It's pointless stress.
00:43:42It's pointless suffering.
00:43:44Good stress is when you can do something about it.
00:43:46So it's stuff like if you've got a date, for example,
00:43:51if you have a date with a girl, that's stressful
00:43:57because now you've gotta be the best version of you.
00:44:00You've gotta impress that girl.
00:44:02So you're under a lot of stress.
00:44:04But that forces you to become better.
00:44:06It's a challenge and you have to meet it.
00:44:08And what happens is that in so trying to meet that challenge,
00:44:13you become a better person.
00:44:15It helps you both at a psychological level,
00:44:19but also at a physiological level.
00:44:20It's hormetic stress.
00:44:22So hormetic stress is stress
00:44:24that sort of makes you adapt, basically.
00:44:27It makes your body adapt to it.
00:44:28And constant stress of that kind
00:44:30is really, really good for you.
00:44:32And the research is very clear on this,
00:44:34but also ordinary human experience is clear on this as well.
00:44:37Anybody who's lived on this earth knows
00:44:40that you need a little bit of stress now and again,
00:44:41just to sort of push you forward and get things going.
00:44:45And so this whole thing that we've been told
00:44:47by a lot of people, which is that we need to minimize stress
00:44:51because then we'll live longer or whatever,
00:44:52that's actually, it's not really true.
00:44:54It's half true.
00:44:56Bad stress is bad for you.
00:44:57It will reduce your lifespan probably.
00:44:59But we need to constantly expose ourselves to discomfort
00:45:04if we want to be able to be happy
00:45:06because happiness is dependent on having a resilient mind.
00:45:11You cannot be happy unless you have a strong mind
00:45:14because you have to be able to weather all the slings
00:45:17and arrows and the vicissitudes of life.
00:45:21Like they will be constantly throwing things at you.
00:45:23Life will constantly be knocking you astray from your course.
00:45:27It will constantly be throwing,
00:45:29just a lot of unexpected things are gonna be happening.
00:45:32If you're only happy when things are going your way,
00:45:36you're not gonna be happy most of the time.
00:45:38And so you have to cultivate the strength.
00:45:39And that's essentially comes from exposing yourself to stress.
00:45:42The more stress of that, not stress, but you stress,
00:45:45the more you stress you expose yourself to,
00:45:48the more resilient your mind becomes
00:45:50and the more you are able to stay happy
00:45:51no matter what life throws at you.
00:45:54- What about automate only the skills you're willing to lose?
00:45:57- Yeah, so this is basically the same principle.
00:46:00So stress is also a form of learning.
00:46:03It's how you learn, right?
00:46:05I always say that you can rent wisdom,
00:46:10but you can only purchase it with pain, right?
00:46:15So what I mean by that is you could tell me something,
00:46:18you could give me some modern wisdom, right?
00:46:21And I will be like,
00:46:22oh, okay, yeah, that's a really cool way of living,
00:46:24maybe I should do that.
00:46:25And I'll try it a couple of days
00:46:27and then I'll forget it exists
00:46:28and I'll just carry on with my life as it was.
00:46:30But if I learn that same lesson through hardship,
00:46:33if I suffer, if I'm exposed to stress
00:46:36and I have to adopt that out of necessity,
00:46:40then it becomes integrated into me
00:46:42and then it becomes a habit.
00:46:44It's something that I'll always remember
00:46:47because the pain engraved the lesson into my brain.
00:46:52And so stress can also be a form of learning.
00:46:56And one of the things with automating things
00:46:58is it completely reduces the friction, it reduces the stress.
00:47:01You no longer need to engage in any kind of discomfort
00:47:04because you just get things done automatically for you.
00:47:06And so you don't learn as a result of that
00:47:08because the pain, the stress
00:47:10is a necessary component of the learning.
00:47:12You're not gonna remember the lesson
00:47:14unless you really suffer or expose yourself
00:47:16to some kind of stress that forces your body
00:47:18to internalize the lesson.
00:47:20- Have you looked at that research,
00:47:25maybe Harvard, maybe MIT,
00:47:28about students that use LLMs to help them
00:47:32with learning and writing and the differential
00:47:35in terms of how much they can recall afterward?
00:47:38- Yeah, yeah, I recall this study, yeah, I think.
00:47:41So this is basically has found that essentially
00:47:45LLMs can cause brain rot, basically.
00:47:49I think that was like one of the sort of clickbait titles
00:47:52that was given to the study that LLMs cause brain rot.
00:47:55So yeah, I mean, it's the same principle, basically.
00:47:58Like when you are outsourcing your abilities to an LLM,
00:48:03there's no incentive for your body or your brain
00:48:09to learn the lessons, right?
00:48:11Because it's like what Plato said in "Fedrus"
00:48:16where he was talking about, one of his sort of concerns
00:48:23was he was writing at a time when sort of paper and pen,
00:48:27or parchment and pen, were becoming common.
00:48:29So this was the AI of his age.
00:48:31And he lamented that paper was gonna,
00:48:35or parchment was gonna destroy people's memory
00:48:38because if they could write things down,
00:48:40then they would have no incentive to remember it.
00:48:42And I mean, I don't know how true that is,
00:48:45but I think that there is a certain sort of analog
00:48:48with what we're seeing today,
00:48:49which is there's a thing called the Google effect.
00:48:52Now this is, it's not a robust finding,
00:48:55but I think the finding does exist.
00:48:59I think the finding is true,
00:49:00but it's probably smaller than it.
00:49:01It's probably overstated.
00:49:03But the Google effect is this idea
00:49:05that if you can just kind of Google anything,
00:49:07then there's no need for you to remember facts, basically,
00:49:11because your mind has essentially been extended
00:49:14to your screen.
00:49:16So that's now functioning as your memory.
00:49:18Your laptop screen, your phone screen
00:49:20is basically your memory now.
00:49:21So your actual memory doesn't really feel the need,
00:49:25as it were, to kind of remember anything.
00:49:27So, I mean, again, the research on this is a bit shaky.
00:49:31I don't want to say that this is genuinely a thing
00:49:33because it's contradicted by some of the studies,
00:49:36but some studies have found that this is the case.
00:49:38So I don't know with this chat GPT thing
00:49:41if it really does cause brain rot in the same sense,
00:49:44'cause it's only one study.
00:49:45And I'm very, very sort of wary of single studies now
00:49:48because of, of course, we've got a replication crisis.
00:49:51A lot of studies are not replicated now, so.
00:49:53But what I will say is one thing that we know for sure
00:49:57is if you don't use it, you lose it.
00:49:59This is a fact that's beyond dispute.
00:50:02It's true of your body.
00:50:04It's true of your brain, right?
00:50:05If you, you know, there's recent research
00:50:08which only came out, I think, yesterday,
00:50:09which found that people whose brains are active in late life,
00:50:14so from the ages of 50 to 80,
00:50:17they're much less likely to develop Alzheimer's
00:50:20and other forms of dementia.
00:50:22So if, you know, if you basically engage in things
00:50:25like video games, board games like chess,
00:50:29if you write and read a lot,
00:50:31if you keep your brain active in your sort of 50s,
00:50:34then your chances of developing like dementia
00:50:36are much lower apparently.
00:50:38And this is apparently like a pretty robust
00:50:40longitudinal study.
00:50:41So, and again, this fits, this is not just an isolated study.
00:50:45This fits with all the other research
00:50:46that has been done on this topic.
00:50:48Like the more actively you use your brain,
00:50:51the stronger your brain becomes, you know,
00:50:53although it's not technically a muscle,
00:50:54it functions like a muscle in that respect.
00:50:56And so, I mean, one of my big fears about AI
00:51:01is not that the machine is gonna go conscious,
00:51:04it's gonna become conscious.
00:51:05It's that it's actually gonna steal
00:51:07our consciousness away from us
00:51:09by essentially just causing us to outsource
00:51:12all of our agency, our intelligence, you know, to it,
00:51:16and causing our own brains to atrophy, so.
00:51:18- I think I had a conversation with Cal Newport,
00:51:21Deep Workman last week about a lot of this.
00:51:23Obviously his whole thing for 15 years now,
00:51:28since he wrote "So Good They Can't Ignore You"
00:51:31was how can you stand out
00:51:35in a field of relative equals?
00:51:39But I think his perspective, certainly my perspective now
00:51:41is that the field is getting worse and worse.
00:51:46The bar that you need to get over is becoming ever lower.
00:51:50You know, in order for you to get a partner at the moment,
00:51:55simply approaching somebody in person in the real world
00:51:59is a one in a thousand chance, as opposed to 50 years ago,
00:52:04that would be something that everybody was doing.
00:52:07And the same thing goes for
00:52:08what's the quality of your writing?
00:52:10- Well, what AI is enabling is velocity and quantity,
00:52:15but it's regressing to the mean with regards to quality
00:52:22and creativity and taste, especially.
00:52:24So if you can cultivate creativity, quality, work, writing,
00:52:29and good sense of taste,
00:52:32you are going to stand out even more.
00:52:34And you don't even need to cultivate it,
00:52:36you simply need to stop it from atrophying.
00:52:38If you can hold your level,
00:52:40if you can hold 2016 levels of focus
00:52:45and ability to write and overcome stuff,
00:52:46I mean, if there's somebody out there
00:52:48who's got sort of 2008 levels of non-distraction
00:52:52before Slack and before smartphones,
00:52:54you don't need to be better, you just need to not be worse.
00:52:58And that ability to kind of hold as the entropy,
00:53:02this sort of technological entropy of the system
00:53:04is trying to fucking compress you into dust.
00:53:07That to me, it kind of is hopeful.
00:53:09It's a hope inspired, as a civilization gets fatter,
00:53:13not great for the civilization,
00:53:15I think that it should be good that everyone's in health,
00:53:17but it does make for a pretty uncompetitive environment
00:53:21if you are someone that is able to avoid getting fatter.
00:53:24That's good for you in as much as civilization
00:53:28and the people around you are kind of a bit of a competition,
00:53:30which they are, but the same thing goes
00:53:34for being able to read.
00:53:35Now, how long is it going to be before if we neural link in,
00:53:40we don't actually need to have the written word anymore.
00:53:43We don't need to have the spoken word anymore.
00:53:45And that all of these skills that will atrophy,
00:53:48eventually you may get into a world
00:53:49where that's so redundant that you don't actually want it,
00:53:52that there's better ways.
00:53:53But at the moment, we're in a transition period
00:53:55where you still need to be able to have the skills
00:53:58from the old world in order to have a competitive advantage
00:54:00in the new one.
00:54:01So yeah, I'm increasingly thinking now
00:54:05about what are the things that are non-fungible?
00:54:08What are the things that are only human?
00:54:10What are the things,
00:54:11and that's really where most of my attention
00:54:13should be focused on writing without using AI
00:54:16to help me with my research,
00:54:17on coming up with ideas, on developing taste,
00:54:20on trying to be creative, on giving myself space,
00:54:22because there's all of the market moves in the direction of,
00:54:25well, I can just publish more.
00:54:26If I publish more slop because I've been enabled
00:54:29by the magnifier that is LLMs,
00:54:34that is where the entirety of the market will move
00:54:37because it's the path of least resistance.
00:54:39Okay, well, what's the opposite of that?
00:54:41What's the more difficult choice?
00:54:43- Yeah, the secret I think to surviving the future
00:54:45is gonna be agency.
00:54:47Because as I said before,
00:54:48that is the one truly non-fungible thing.
00:54:50I think everything else is downstream of agency.
00:54:53I think what's gonna happen in the sort of AI age
00:54:56is that essentially humanity is gonna split in two.
00:55:00And I think I've made a reference to this before.
00:55:01I think we had a conversation in 2021 in which I spoke
00:55:04about this.
00:55:05But basically the analog I use is a novel
00:55:08called "The Time Machine",
00:55:10which was written I think at the start of the 20th century.
00:55:12And it was basically the story of in the far future,
00:55:17humanity has sort of evolved into two subspecies.
00:55:21So you've got the Morlocks and the Eloi.
00:55:23And the Morlocks basically, they do all the work.
00:55:24They've maintained like all their faculties
00:55:27because they have lived lives of drudgery
00:55:30and they've passed this on down to their generation
00:55:31or from generation to generation.
00:55:34And they're in charge of all of the machinery basically.
00:55:36And they're constantly working
00:55:38and constantly improving themselves mentally and physically.
00:55:41And then you have the Eloi who were basically,
00:55:43they were the former aristocrats.
00:55:44They were the ones who had everything done for them.
00:55:47And as a result of this,
00:55:48they have all of their faculties of atrophy.
00:55:51So that their bodies are like really thin and frail.
00:55:55Their minds, they've become very naive.
00:55:58They're basically like children.
00:55:59They've regressed into children
00:56:01and they're completely dependent on the Morlocks
00:56:03who do everything for them.
00:56:04And in the end, basically it turns out
00:56:06that the Morlocks have been farming the Eloi
00:56:08in order to eat them basically.
00:56:10And while they're doing this,
00:56:11they're just distracting the Eloi
00:56:13with all this like entertainment
00:56:14or basically just to keep them placid.
00:56:17And I think that essentially we're gonna have something
00:56:19probably not as horrific as that, but something similar
00:56:22in the sense that we'll have a class system,
00:56:24a new class system.
00:56:25Well, we'll have high agency people
00:56:27whose agency is gonna be increased even more by AI.
00:56:31And then we'll have passive people
00:56:33whose passivity will be increased even more by AI.
00:56:36Because AI, the way I look at it,
00:56:37I don't look at it as artificial intelligence.
00:56:39I look at it as amplified intelligence.
00:56:42But as I say, it can also amplify stupidity.
00:56:45It amplifies, essentially it's an amplifier of everything.
00:56:49So if you're lazy, it will amplify your laziness.
00:56:52If you are highly agentic and conscientious,
00:56:55it will amplify those attributes as well.
00:56:58So what's gonna happen is the people who already have agency,
00:57:01they're gonna use AI to increase their options.
00:57:04They're gonna basically use it to do more.
00:57:07So they're gonna become even more agentic.
00:57:09And the people who lack agency,
00:57:11they're gonna use it to do things for them.
00:57:13They're gonna use AI to think for them,
00:57:15to basically outsource everything to them.
00:57:17So they're gonna get even less agency.
00:57:19So what we're gonna see is the compounding
00:57:20of both agency and its opposite,
00:57:22which is why I think there's gonna be this bifurcation
00:57:25of people who are high agency and low agency.
00:57:28We're gonna have extremely high agency people
00:57:30and extremely low agency people
00:57:32who will probably be the majority of humans in the future.
00:57:36Quite a scary prospect.
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00:58:22All right, next one from me.
00:58:23The personal Tocqueville paradox.
00:58:25You will always think you suck.
00:58:27That's good.
00:58:28It's okay to suck compared to your standards.
00:58:30As you grow, so will your standards.
00:58:32It doesn't mean that you actually suck.
00:58:34This is similar to the Matthew principle of self-improvement.
00:58:38There's two types of people.
00:58:39Those who don't know how to improve their lives
00:58:41and those who don't know when to stop.
00:58:43But that personal Tocqueville paradox thing of
00:58:45I have standards, those standards continue to rise
00:58:51as my capacity rises.
00:58:53And now the standards always outstrip
00:58:57where I think my capacity is at.
00:58:59Well, if you didn't, you would never get any better.
00:59:01And it's kind of like hedonic adaptation,
00:59:04but for your skillset or like a habituation
00:59:07to what your performance level is.
00:59:08And the Tocqueville paradox, which I learned from you
00:59:12as living standards in a society rise,
00:59:14people's expectations of those standards grow more quickly
00:59:18than the standards can deliver them to it.
00:59:20So this is why, given that Louis XIV,
00:59:24we have technology and a quality of life
00:59:26that he could not believe.
00:59:28And yet we feel like quality of life
00:59:31is the worst that it could be,
00:59:33despite all of the material comforts and safety and medicine
00:59:36and get access to the internet and air conditioning
00:59:38and fresh water and stuff that we've got.
00:59:40And I think the same thing happens
00:59:42with regards to personal growth as well.
00:59:43You just continue to outstrip your own standards
00:59:46over and over again with where you want to be.
00:59:49- Yeah, absolutely.
00:59:51I always think of regret as a sign of progress.
00:59:55A lot of people think regret is a bad thing.
00:59:57I don't, I actually think regret's a good thing.
00:59:59Because what it shows is that you've grown basically.
01:00:02Because if you're looking back
01:00:03and you're seeing an idiot in the past,
01:00:05then that's a sign that you have grown as a person.
01:00:08You basically, you have new standards of behavior
01:00:10that you had when you committed whatever act
01:00:13you are regretting.
01:00:15And so I think so many of these kinds of problems
01:00:18are really just base rate fantasies.
01:00:20You need to understand that your own standards have risen.
01:00:25And that's why when you look back and you think,
01:00:27"Oh, okay, this person wasn't the person that I wanted to be."
01:00:31That's because you are now a new person.
01:00:33You wouldn't be able to do that
01:00:34if you were the same person in a sense.
01:00:36And again, our sort of expectations for what is good
01:00:41do always increase as we improve.
01:00:46And we have to manage that.
01:00:48We have to always account for that.
01:00:49Because if we don't, we're essentially living
01:00:52in some sort of weird kind of on some treadmill basically.
01:00:57We're basically on a hedonic treadmill.
01:00:59The way that I like to look at things
01:01:02is to try to look at objective metrics
01:01:04rather than whether I'm using subjective metrics.
01:01:07Because subjective metrics are always moving around.
01:01:09They're always, they're very malleable.
01:01:12And on a bad day, you might have certain expectations
01:01:16and then on a good day, you have different ones.
01:01:18So I think looking at objective metrics
01:01:21are always much, much better.
01:01:23So for example, if you wanna look at,
01:01:26they could be really shallow ones.
01:01:27Like as a writer, if you're a writer like me,
01:01:30it would be like how many likes do I get
01:01:32on my sub-stack post?
01:01:33Or it could be something a bit more sort of in depth
01:01:36like looking at like where, who likes the piece?
01:01:44Is it just like sycophants who like your article
01:01:48or is it actually other people?
01:01:49Do people that you'd normally disagree with politically,
01:01:51are they liking your writing?
01:01:53Because if they do then that's a sign
01:01:54that you've really written something good.
01:01:56So there's many metrics you can use.
01:01:58And again, if you're using subjective metrics,
01:02:02it's like trying to navigate
01:02:03by the light of a shooting star.
01:02:05You're gonna be all over the place.
01:02:08So you have to have fixed points.
01:02:09You have to fix things that you are aiming for.
01:02:12And that way you can objectively measure
01:02:15where you're going.
01:02:17Then your own standards are not really gonna matter too much
01:02:19because you've got objective metrics fixed in place.
01:02:23- Rothbard's law.
01:02:24If a talent comes naturally to someone,
01:02:26they assume it's nothing special
01:02:27and instead try to improve at what seems difficult to them.
01:02:30As a result, people often specialize in things
01:02:33that they're bad at.
01:02:34- We've spoken about this one before.
01:02:37This was on the last episode we did.
01:02:39- Yeah, it just relates to these two so much, I think.
01:02:44It's so good.
01:02:45I have a friend, I think I told this story last time,
01:02:47Ryan Long, wonderful at doing comedy sketches
01:02:51and just so fantastic.
01:02:53But because that comes easily to him,
01:02:54he's decided that other art forms are more elevated.
01:02:59He was sort of blinded to the,
01:03:01there is this natural assumption
01:03:03that if something is worthwhile, it's going to be difficult.
01:03:06And that I wrote this essay a couple of months ago
01:03:10about the difference between inputs, outputs, and outcomes.
01:03:14So inputs is sort of time spent.
01:03:17Outputs is work done and outcomes is real world results.
01:03:22And people love to focus on the first two, not the third one,
01:03:25because you never have to ask the question of effectiveness.
01:03:27But this, the Rothbard's law thing
01:03:29actually plays a role in this too,
01:03:31because the outcome focused assessment of your own work
01:03:36gets, it forces you to look at your assumptions
01:03:41and maybe go, oh, actually I have a natural talent
01:03:46at something and this sort of strange pattern whereby
01:03:50I assume that I'm not supposed to achieve things
01:03:54without sweat and pain and discomfort and agony.
01:03:58Maybe that's wrong.
01:04:00Maybe that isn't something that I should try
01:04:03and build my entire worldview around.
01:04:05- Yeah, absolutely.
01:04:07But I think one of the problems
01:04:08and that's sort of highlighted by Rothbard's law
01:04:11is that often really the issue is that we just never try
01:04:15in the first place to do something that we're good at
01:04:17because we assume by default that we're,
01:04:21it's just basically a pretty easy thing
01:04:22that anybody can do, right?
01:04:24So what I would say is to overcome that
01:04:28is to just do what you love, right?
01:04:30I know it sounds a bit corny, right?
01:04:32But ultimately I found that that is the best heuristic
01:04:35for you when you want to try and work out
01:04:36what you want to do, do what you love.
01:04:39And the reason for that is because you will,
01:04:40even if you're not good at it,
01:04:42the fact that you enjoy doing it
01:04:44shows that you will be motivated to do it.
01:04:46You'll be motivated to get better at it.
01:04:48And obviously because our brains are neuroplastic,
01:04:51if you keep doing something, you will get better at it.
01:04:56And so I think even like I would rather do something
01:04:59that I'm bad at, but which I enjoy
01:05:01than do something that I'm good at, but which I don't enjoy.
01:05:04Because you've got to bear in mind,
01:05:05you're going to do this for the rest of your life, right?
01:05:07This is going to be your life.
01:05:08Like this is going to be the thing
01:05:10that essentially you get out of bed for each morning.
01:05:12So if you're getting out of bed and you're like,
01:05:14"Oh, I've got to do this."
01:05:16That's not a life because you're going to be,
01:05:18most of your life is going to be that.
01:05:20But if you're getting out of bed and you're like,
01:05:21"All right, okay, I've got a hard challenge.
01:05:24This is a really hard challenge.
01:05:25I don't know how I'm going to do it,
01:05:26but I'm loving the fact that I get to tackle it."
01:05:28That's how you want to live
01:05:29because then your fun is going to be the motivation.
01:05:33And that is going to ensure
01:05:35that you will get better at that thing.
01:05:36And so I think that's really the way around Rothbard's law,
01:05:40just to do what you enjoy, forget what you're good at.
01:05:43It doesn't matter.
01:05:44If you're young enough or if you're young enough
01:05:46in spirit even, you don't even have
01:05:47to be physically young enough.
01:05:49You keep doing something and if you're determined,
01:05:52if you really enjoy it, you will get better at it.
01:05:56- There's an interesting challenge I think that people face
01:06:00with believing that their accomplishments
01:06:04are as big as they are.
01:06:06You know, there's certainly some people out there
01:06:07who are BPD narcissist, full of ego, whatever.
01:06:12I think so many people, especially in the modern world,
01:06:15are just chronically uncertain.
01:06:17Am I okay?
01:06:18Is what I'm doing good?
01:06:20How much more do I need to be until I can rest?
01:06:23I always think about that scene from Avengers Endgame
01:06:26where Thanos has done the snap and he's got this cabin
01:06:28on a planet that overlooks a lake and he comes
01:06:31and he puts his helmet down and then he sits in this seat.
01:06:34He sits down in this sort of rocking chair
01:06:36and he makes this noise and it's kind of like satisfaction
01:06:40but it's much more like exhaustion and I often think
01:06:43about this assumption that at some point there will come
01:06:47a time, the provisional life or deferred happiness syndrome
01:06:52or the arrival fallacy, this sense that at some point,
01:06:55but there's a personal growth version of this too.
01:06:57There's a personal growth version of at some point
01:07:00I will have done the growing and the learning
01:07:03and I will be able to rest.
01:07:04Well, I don't think that you're ever gonna stop learning
01:07:07and growing and I think that you would probably not enjoy
01:07:09your life if you were to do that.
01:07:11But also what that means is you need to enjoy some
01:07:14of whatever it is that you want to do now
01:07:17because it will just be this.
01:07:19It is just going to be this convey about
01:07:21up until the end of time.
01:07:24- Yeah, so Naval Ravikant has a brilliant quote about this,
01:07:29which is, "If you can't be happy with a coffee,
01:07:32"you won't be happy with a yacht," basically.
01:07:36And it's just a really great sort of quote
01:07:39because it sums up pretty much everything
01:07:41you've been describing, which is people are always looking
01:07:43for this moment where everything is gonna be perfect.
01:07:46They're always chasing this idealized version of reality
01:07:50where they will have attained all the skills
01:07:52that they want to.
01:07:53They will have gotten all the things that they want to
01:07:55and then they will finally be happy.
01:07:57But ultimately, as we spoke of before,
01:08:01real happiness ultimately comes from the resilience
01:08:03of your mind.
01:08:05If you can find happiness in just something as simple
01:08:08as a coffee, then that is enough.
01:08:10Then that means you will be happy later on
01:08:14when you have even more.
01:08:16Then there needs to be this kind of baseline
01:08:18that you're willing to be happy at.
01:08:21So you need to be happy even if you have nothing
01:08:24because if you're tying your happiness to something,
01:08:28everything is transient, everything can be broken,
01:08:31everything can be destroyed in this world.
01:08:33And if you tie your happiness to that thing
01:08:36and that thing gets destroyed,
01:08:38you're gonna lose your whole purpose of existence.
01:08:41So the only thing that is gonna survive all of the slings
01:08:44and arrows of life is to tie your happiness
01:08:48to just the basic fact of existence,
01:08:50just the fact that you are alive
01:08:52and you get to live what is essentially
01:08:55such an improbable life.
01:08:56You know, there's this crazy sort of statistic,
01:08:58which is that if you look at genetically the number
01:09:00of people that could have been born,
01:09:02the chances of you being born are like one in N
01:09:07where N is greater than the number of atoms
01:09:10in the universe, right?
01:09:13So it's extraordinarily like improbable for us
01:09:17to even be here right now talking.
01:09:19And this is assuming that we were essentially
01:09:22selected randomly from the genetic lottery.
01:09:27But it's so improbable that we're even here.
01:09:30So I try to find happiness in the most basic things
01:09:34because then if you can do that,
01:09:35then everything else that you get
01:09:37is just gonna be a bonus, right?
01:09:39But if you tie your happiness to something
01:09:41that you haven't yet achieved,
01:09:43then your entire life's journey up until that point
01:09:45is gonna be miserable.
01:09:46And then you can't even be sure
01:09:47that when you attain that thing,
01:09:48it's actually gonna be as good as you thought it was.
01:09:51Because often we inflate our hopes and dreams beyond reality.
01:09:55So what we think is gonna make us happy,
01:09:57when we finally get it, it doesn't actually make us happy.
01:09:59And this has happened to pretty much everybody.
01:10:01You know, so everybody will recognize this.
01:10:03So you've gotta, I think if you wanna be happy,
01:10:05you've got to be happy no matter
01:10:06what the external world is like.
01:10:09You know, you have to cultivate internal happiness.
01:10:11You have to have that happiness with a coffee
01:10:13and then you'll be happy with a yacht.
01:10:16Original position fallacy, far leftists
01:10:19favor planned economies because they imagine themselves
01:10:21as the planners, not the planned.
01:10:24Far rightists favor a return to feudalism
01:10:26because they imagine themselves as the lords,
01:10:29not the peasants.
01:10:30Many delusional worldviews
01:10:31stem from main character syndrome.
01:10:34And I had this from three or four years ago,
01:10:37one of our first episodes, the alpha history fantasy.
01:10:39Modern men who are angry at a world
01:10:41they feel has rejected them,
01:10:42mistakenly believe that they would have done better
01:10:44in medieval times.
01:10:46They are somehow adamant
01:10:47that the chance of them being Genghis Khan
01:10:49is greater than the chance of them being
01:10:50cannon fodder peasant number 1,373
01:10:54whose favela was sacked and destroyed.
01:10:56- Yeah, yeah.
01:10:58So yeah, so the original position fallacy
01:11:03is really has its origins in the work of John Rawls.
01:11:06John Rawls was like a liberal philosopher, basically,
01:11:08a political philosopher.
01:11:10And so his argument was that basically people,
01:11:15when they think of like future states,
01:11:17they tend to assume that they're gonna be
01:11:19amongst the elites, basically.
01:11:21So, and this is true
01:11:23whether you're on the left or on the right.
01:11:25If you're on the left,
01:11:26you think you're gonna be one of the planners.
01:11:28If you're on the right,
01:11:30you think you're gonna be one of the nobles, right?
01:11:33History, again, history has shown this to be completely false.
01:11:35So for example, if you look at all the communist revolutions
01:11:38that occurred in the 20th century,
01:11:40whether you're looking at Stalin, Mao,
01:11:44Pol Pot, Ceausescu, all of these people,
01:11:48one of the first things that they did
01:11:49was to either imprison or murder the intellectuals, right?
01:11:54So the elites basically--
01:11:55- Is that because they were the ones
01:11:56who could have come up with ideas
01:11:58to reverse their proposed direction for the civilization?
01:12:03- Basically, yeah.
01:12:05So if we take one of these examples,
01:12:07so if we look at Pol Pot.
01:12:08So Pol Pot wanted to basically reset history to year zero.
01:12:15And he wanted nobody to remember anything
01:12:17from before year zero.
01:12:19Like for him, that was literally the beginning of time.
01:12:21So he wanted to completely wipe out
01:12:23all traces of the past beyond year zero.
01:12:27And one thing he knew about intellectuals
01:12:29was that they read books and that they wrote.
01:12:32And obviously writing and reading
01:12:33are essentially the society's memory.
01:12:36So if you can eliminate all the intellectuals,
01:12:39then you eliminate society's memory, basically.
01:12:41You wipe society's memory and you can start fresh.
01:12:44You can create a new fresh without any bourgeoisie,
01:12:47without any of the ideas of capitalism
01:12:50to pollute the modern world.
01:12:52- Would die along with the intellectuals.
01:12:54- Exactly, and there's an irony
01:12:55because there were a lot of intellectuals
01:12:57that were supporting Pol Pot.
01:12:59They were some of his fiercest defenders.
01:13:02They were the guys that were advocating,
01:13:04like writing the propaganda for him.
01:13:06They were the ones who were like...
01:13:07And this is not just with Pol Pot.
01:13:09This is with all the communist revolutions.
01:13:11Even Western intellectuals, many of them...
01:13:13There was one guy, I've forgotten his name,
01:13:14but he was a Western intellectual.
01:13:15He went to Pol Pot.
01:13:17He was one of the biggest cheerleaders for the Khmer Rouge.
01:13:20And he went to basically have a meeting with Pol Pot.
01:13:25And he ended up getting assassinated.
01:13:27And nobody knows who killed him,
01:13:28but it was probably on Pol Pot's orders.
01:13:30But a lot of the left-wing intellectuals believed
01:13:34that if they were to create a socialist society,
01:13:38that they would be at the top of society.
01:13:40They would be planning things.
01:13:42Everything would go according to their vision of society.
01:13:45And that's why it's such an intoxicating vision.
01:13:47That's why academics and other elites
01:13:50will tend towards these views of society.
01:13:55And they want either a socialist republic,
01:14:00if they're on the left,
01:14:02or if they're on the right,
01:14:03they'll probably advocate for something.
01:14:04It could be like neo-monarchy
01:14:06with the dementia small bugs, courtesy ovens,
01:14:08whatever, of the world,
01:14:09who believes that they would be...
01:14:10I'm sure Kurt Ziavan believes that
01:14:12if there was a right-wing revolution,
01:14:14that he would be at the right-hand side of the monarch.
01:14:17He would be the advisor.
01:14:18He would be the Svengali.
01:14:19But again, usually it's the revolutionaries
01:14:25who end up getting murdered themselves.
01:14:27This is true of the French Revolution too as well.
01:14:31The biggest advocates of the French Revolution
01:14:33ended up being the first people to get guillotined,
01:14:36or at least they did eventually get guillotined.
01:14:38So all of this stuff...
01:14:41Again, so this is probably going off on tangent anyway,
01:14:43but basically going back to the original idea.
01:14:44So it was originally John Rawls' idea.
01:14:47I kind of adapted it to extend it to the left and right.
01:14:51But his idea was just generally that people tend to benefit.
01:14:54They will tend to adopt whatever state
01:14:57that they think is gonna benefit them.
01:14:59They will tend to advocate
01:15:00for whatever state is gonna benefit them.
01:15:01And the solution that he proposed
01:15:05was what he called the veil of ignorance.
01:15:08And I think we might've covered this before,
01:15:10but basically the veil of ignorance is his belief
01:15:14that the best way to create a society
01:15:17is to begin by imagining
01:15:21that you are gonna be assigned at random
01:15:24a position in the world that you advocate for.
01:15:27So if you advocate for a socialist or a communist country,
01:15:33you can't do that with the assumption
01:15:35that you are gonna be the planner.
01:15:37You are gonna be the chairman of the party
01:15:39or anything like that.
01:15:41It's gotta be the assumption
01:15:42that you will be assigned a place
01:15:43within that state at random,
01:15:45because then this will motivate you to then hedge
01:15:50and ensure that every person in that state
01:15:53is well looked after, basically.
01:15:55So this is obviously coming from his left liberal perspective.
01:15:58- To optimize for the sort of highest average life quality
01:16:02as opposed to your selected fortunate quality.
01:16:06- Yeah, exactly, yeah.
01:16:08So this was his way of advocating for liberalism
01:16:10because that's essentially what liberalism does.
01:16:12Liberalism is based on the idea
01:16:14that you wanna ensure that everybody in society--
01:16:17- Redistribution.
01:16:18- Yeah, redistribution, but to an extent.
01:16:20It's obviously it's not the same as a socialist country,
01:16:23which is a socialist country
01:16:24would be complete redistribution or near total.
01:16:28Whereas liberalism is a sort of middle ground
01:16:31between socialism and sort of free market capitalism,
01:16:36like completely laissez-faire capitalism.
01:16:39So it's basically the idea that liberals
01:16:44want to maximize freedom,
01:16:46but they consider freedom to also be freedom
01:16:50from, for example, poverty or from oppression
01:16:53by higher classes of people.
01:16:56So they're similar to libertarians
01:16:59from the basic point in that they value liberty
01:17:01more than anything.
01:17:02It's just that liberals
01:17:03tend to have a slightly different definition
01:17:05of what liberty means.
01:17:07But for libertarians, liberty is literal.
01:17:09It's literally just freedom to do what you want.
01:17:12Whereas liberals, depending on the specific brand
01:17:16of liberalism, it might be the John Stuart Mill
01:17:18or the John Locke kind of liberalism
01:17:20where your liberty ends at the point
01:17:24at which it does harm to somebody else
01:17:25where it basically encroaches on their liberty sort of thing.
01:17:28- What about the coyotes law thing?
01:17:32Don't give the government a power
01:17:34you wouldn't want your political enemies to wield
01:17:37because one day they may well be in charge of it.
01:17:40- Yeah, yeah.
01:17:41So this is the sort of preventative
01:17:45to the original fallacy position.
01:17:47This is what I advocate for personally.
01:17:49I think that the best way to determine
01:17:51what policies to support are the ones
01:17:54that will be not harmful
01:17:58if the government were to be taken over
01:18:00by somebody that you despise basically,
01:18:03by the worst government that is possible in your country.
01:18:06So if you're on the left,
01:18:10then you should advocate for policies
01:18:12that would not harm your interests
01:18:14or the interests of those you advocate for
01:18:16if the government would suddenly become right wing
01:18:19and vice versa.
01:18:20So I think it's a pretty sort of straightforward
01:18:23common sense rule
01:18:24because I think one of the problems with people
01:18:26is that they tend to think about the short term
01:18:29at the expense of the long term.
01:18:30This is one of the fundamental problems with human beings
01:18:33and it extends to politics as well.
01:18:35People tend to only,
01:18:36they tend to imagine that whoever they're supporting
01:18:39is gonna be in power forever.
01:18:40And this is why when I see people like right wingers,
01:18:43for example, on Twitter,
01:18:44actively suppressing and censoring left wingers
01:18:49after advocating for free speech for so long,
01:18:52I just think well, you're just shooting yourselves in the foot
01:18:54because this is gonna be used against you.
01:18:56The apparatus you're creating
01:18:58is gonna be used against you.
01:19:00So for example, if we go with,
01:19:02if Trump, for instance, were to pass laws
01:19:08which were to make it illegal for people to criticize him,
01:19:11this is obviously a hypothetical situation.
01:19:13This is not something he's actually done,
01:19:14but this is a hypothetical.
01:19:16You would see people on the right supporting it.
01:19:18A lot of people on the right would support it.
01:19:19They'd be like, yes, stick it to the left.
01:19:23Yeah, trigger the libtards and all this stuff.
01:19:25Yeah, and they'll be cheering.
01:19:26But then Trump's not gonna be in power forever.
01:19:29And then you're gonna have probably a Democrat in charge
01:19:31and he's gonna have, now he's gonna have the power
01:19:33to do exactly to the right what Trump was doing to the left.
01:19:36So it's basically like the leopards eating your own face
01:19:39kind of thing where a lot of this stuff can backfire
01:19:42if you don't think about it on a long enough timescale.
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01:20:46You see the same thing culturally, I suppose,
01:20:51as well as systemically or in terms of policies.
01:20:56So for instance, BLM rioting and pushing as hard as it did,
01:21:01it would surprise me, maybe I'm wrong,
01:21:07but 2020 into 2021, January 6th,
01:21:10was sort of the year of the riot.
01:21:12And I get the sense that the tone had already been set
01:21:16by something that seemed to be swept under the rug.
01:21:18It was done by the mostly peaceful and quiet protesters
01:21:22that I think legitimated a degree of retribution,
01:21:27even if it was only sort of in the minds of people
01:21:30that decided that that was the way that the world works,
01:21:32that one stupid action deserves another stupid action.
01:21:36You see this too with the way that people behave,
01:21:41the sort of language that people use online.
01:21:43Well, if your president gets shot at,
01:21:47then maybe their president can get shot at.
01:21:49And if you use a knife, then we can bring a knife too.
01:21:53And maybe we'll bring a gun and then you bring a gun
01:21:55and then someone brings a bazooka
01:21:56and you just the tit for tat sort of ever.
01:21:59It's kind of like, what's that?
01:22:01Isn't there a law?
01:22:03Doesn't somebody have an idea?
01:22:04I think Elon's talked about this.
01:22:05Well, over time, because laws get instantiated
01:22:10and rarely repealed, eventually everything
01:22:15will be made illegal, that there will be a law
01:22:18that stops you from doing everything
01:22:19because you creep this forward one step at a time.
01:22:23Well, you shouldn't drive when it's this wet with that car,
01:22:27then with a different car, then with any car,
01:22:28then when it's a bit less wet, then when it's dry,
01:22:30then when it's, you just end up litigating your way
01:22:33out of civilization.
01:22:35And this is kind of the same sort of thing
01:22:38that if you allow this behavior and then the behavior
01:22:41can come back in a little bit more from the other side
01:22:43and then the other side and then the other side.
01:22:44It's this game of ever-escalating tennis.
01:22:47- Yeah, I mean, so there is a concept
01:22:53which relates to this called reciprocal radicalization,
01:22:57which is basically where it's like a game of brinkmanship
01:23:00where you have one group who advocate for something
01:23:04which then the other side now feels entitled to.
01:23:07And then they'll escalate it even more.
01:23:10And then it will basically suck a repeating pattern.
01:23:13So it's like the left and the right
01:23:17almost have this symbiotic sort of relationship
01:23:20where the excesses of one group will fuel the excesses
01:23:23of the other group, the opposing group.
01:23:25And they're kind of like what is known as a mise-en-bien,
01:23:30which is a mirror when you have two mirrors facing each other
01:23:33and they kind of infinitely reflect each other.
01:23:35- Okay. - It's like
01:23:37they're constantly reinforcing each other in that sense.
01:23:40So it's not just with the left and right.
01:23:42You also see this amongst terrorists and governments as well.
01:23:45So what will happen is that you have terrorists
01:23:46who will commit an act of violence
01:23:48and then the government will respond to that
01:23:50by having a crackdown and by tightening laws.
01:23:53And then the terrorists will use this
01:23:54as an example of the government being tyrannical.
01:23:57And so that would justify further action
01:23:59against the government.
01:24:00And then the government will use further action
01:24:02to justify their own further action by saying,
01:24:03oh, these terrorists are even more dangerous now
01:24:05so we have to enact even tighter laws.
01:24:07And so it's like an ever tightening sort of situation
01:24:10where the excesses of one group
01:24:12fuel the excesses of the other group.
01:24:14And ultimately the only way out of this
01:24:16is long-term thinking again.
01:24:17So this is, again, it's short-term thinking.
01:24:19It's when people are engaging
01:24:22in the sort of the satiation of their own impulses
01:24:25rather than actually engaging in long-term thinking
01:24:28about the consequences of their actions.
01:24:30It's first order thinking.
01:24:32They're only thinking about the immediate consequences.
01:24:35They're not thinking about
01:24:35the consequences of the consequences,
01:24:37let alone the consequences of the consequences
01:24:39of the consequences, which is what you really need to be doing
01:24:42when you're in the political game.
01:24:44So, yeah.
01:24:44- There's a, that's short-term, long-term thing.
01:24:49There's a similarity with Amara's law.
01:24:52We tend to overestimate the short-term impact of new tech
01:24:54and underestimate the long-term impact
01:24:57because hype inflates expectations
01:25:00and thus disappointment and thus skepticism.
01:25:03As such, it's possible for AI to both be a bubble
01:25:06and the most transformative tech since fire.
01:25:09- Yeah, so this is an idea that's illustrated
01:25:11by something called the Gartner hype cycle.
01:25:14So if you go on Wikipedia, it will tell you
01:25:16that the Gartner hype cycle is pseudoscience.
01:25:18It's not supported by evidence.
01:25:19This is nonsense.
01:25:20The Gartner hype cycle is not supposed to be
01:25:23a scientific sort of like study of what actually happens.
01:25:27What it's supposed to be is a general rule of thumb
01:25:29and it does fit most major technology, major technological
01:25:34sort of developments.
01:25:35One of the problems with Wikipedia is it's,
01:25:37often straw man's ideas before discredit
01:25:39or trying to discredit them.
01:25:40So I wouldn't pay attention to the Wikipedia article
01:25:43of the Gartner hype cycle.
01:25:44Basically, what the Gartner hype cycle states
01:25:47is that you have, when you have a new technology,
01:25:50you have like massive surge in hype, right?
01:25:54Where everybody's incentivized to sort of just kind of
01:25:58get on the hype bandwagon, basically.
01:26:00Because it's a new technology and people are speculating
01:26:03that they're spit balling.
01:26:05They're speculating about where this could go
01:26:08and people get excited about it.
01:26:09People write click bait articles about it.
01:26:11And so this obviously inflates people's expectations.
01:26:14And so then the next stage of the hype cycle
01:26:17is where people start to realize, hang on a second,
01:26:21the hype was hype.
01:26:23They start to sort of realize that the reality
01:26:26of the new technology is not quite what people were saying
01:26:29it was gonna be.
01:26:30And this causes a kind of backfire effect
01:26:34where people temper their expectations by over-correcting.
01:26:38So what they do is they assume that
01:26:40because where the technology is actually headed
01:26:43is slightly different from where it was,
01:26:46where the hype claimed it was headed.
01:26:48Therefore, they were wrong about the technology completely.
01:26:51And therefore the technology is worthless.
01:26:53So then you get people now from the opposite side
01:26:56arguing for the opposite thing, saying, it was all hype.
01:27:00Humans are stupid, don't listen to humans.
01:27:02This technology is just gonna fizz out.
01:27:04It's just crap.
01:27:06So people will naturally react very strongly
01:27:08by over-correcting, that's what humans tend to do.
01:27:10So you get a lot of articles arguing for the opposite.
01:27:13But then what will happen is everybody will go,
01:27:14oh, okay, well, yeah, so the hype was just crap.
01:27:16So let's just get on with our lives.
01:27:18And they'll forget about the technology.
01:27:20And then it's when they forget about the technology,
01:27:23that's when the technology will start to change the world.
01:27:26Because even though the technology
01:27:28is no longer in popular discourse,
01:27:30it has been adopted by the sort of people
01:27:33at the frontier of development,
01:27:35the industries where it can actually be used.
01:27:37And these are usually not exciting industries.
01:27:39They're usually things like doing financial wizardry,
01:27:47which is not really something that interests most people.
01:27:50So it will usually have very limited visibility
01:27:54for a long time.
01:27:55But then the developments in those industries
01:27:57will gradually compound
01:27:59until we have something that is really, really amazing.
01:28:02And AI is a great example of this.
01:28:04So one of the main pioneers of AI
01:28:12is a guy called Marvin Minsky.
01:28:13He was a major figure in the development of neural networks.
01:28:17I think it was in the 1970s.
01:28:18He said that in around seven to eight years,
01:28:23we will have human level intelligence
01:28:25in neural networks, basically.
01:28:27He said something like that anyway.
01:28:28And obviously this is completely absurd
01:28:30because by the 1980s,
01:28:32we had really, really basic neural networks.
01:28:35And that continued into the '90s
01:28:37and everybody had kind of by then
01:28:38just forgotten about the hype.
01:28:40Everybody was like, ah,
01:28:42this whole neural network stuff's crap.
01:28:44Nothing's gonna happen.
01:28:45It was all just hype.
01:28:47Everybody forgot about it
01:28:48apart from a small number of researchers
01:28:51and a small number of people
01:28:52who were using convolutional neural networks
01:28:55to do things like imaging and things like that.
01:28:57And then what happened is suddenly you have ChatGPT, boom,
01:29:01in like 2022.
01:29:03And this seemed to have come out of nowhere,
01:29:05but it didn't actually come out of nowhere.
01:29:07The technology for the transformer architecture
01:29:10was actually developed by Google DeepMind.
01:29:12And this was a few years before ChatGPT
01:29:15sort of accommodated it
01:29:17and actually began to develop it themselves.
01:29:20But before that, nobody really cared.
01:29:24For 30 years, nobody really cared in the mainstream
01:29:27about neural networks.
01:29:28So this is a good example of it.
01:29:29But the thing is, is that the Gartner hype cycle continues.
01:29:31So it's not just you have this one hype cycle
01:29:34and then it's over.
01:29:35It often repeats itself.
01:29:37So we're gonna see it again
01:29:39with things like world models now, I think, where there's-
01:29:43- What are world models?
01:29:44- So world models are like a stepping stone towards AGI.
01:29:47A world model is where you have things like physics
01:29:51implemented into your LLM.
01:29:53It's not really an LLM anymore
01:29:55because it can do so many other things.
01:29:57It's more like a video model,
01:29:58but it's a video model that actually has real world physics.
01:30:01And at the moment, Google is probably best placed for this
01:30:03because they have all the data.
01:30:05They've got the real-time data through search.
01:30:08They've got video data through YouTube.
01:30:10And then they've got like,
01:30:11they've got spatial data as well through Google Street View
01:30:15and all that kind of stuff.
01:30:16So they have actually got the best world model
01:30:18at the moment called Genie, Genie 3.
01:30:21But basically, a world model is basically when an LLM
01:30:24or an AI can model the world, basically, literally.
01:30:29That's why it's called a world model.
01:30:30It can model the world.
01:30:31So it can understand things like physics.
01:30:33So it can understand collisions.
01:30:35It can understand gravity.
01:30:36It can understand the way that fluids move,
01:30:40like water and things like that.
01:30:41And we have like a kind of,
01:30:43we have a simulacrum of that in video generation,
01:30:45but video generations don't understand physics.
01:30:47They're just copying the physics of films
01:30:51and other stuff like that.
01:30:53Whereas a world model genuinely understands the physics.
01:30:56And so that's the first step towards creating AGI
01:30:59because then you can actually activate AI
01:31:01in the physical reality.
01:31:03And this is probably gonna be the next hype cycle.
01:31:05It's already begun.
01:31:06There's been a lot of hype around Genie 3.
01:31:09What will probably happen is we'll have something
01:31:10called the trough of disillusionment,
01:31:12which is the next of the Gartner hype cycle.
01:31:15And then when everybody's forgotten about world models,
01:31:17we'll start to see real world models emerge.
01:31:19- Wow.
01:31:20There's a, I was looking at,
01:31:22I've spoken to a lot of behavioral genetics guys
01:31:27and girls on the podcast.
01:31:28I've got Catherine Page-Harden coming back on
01:31:29for her new book next week.
01:31:31And I'd always wondered,
01:31:34there's an equivalent basically with,
01:31:36over time, things changing.
01:31:38And the Wilson effect feels like a biological equivalent
01:31:43of what we're talking about with regards to the hype.
01:31:45So this is from you.
01:31:47Heritable traits like IQ and personality
01:31:49become more heritable with age because as you mature,
01:31:52you become more independent and free to be who you really are.
01:31:56Many heritability studies find that nurture's influence
01:31:59is stronger only because they never see
01:32:01that nature's influence is longer.
01:32:04- Yeah, so historically, the social sciences
01:32:09and the field of genetics has pretty consistently
01:32:13underestimated the heritability of a lot of traits.
01:32:17And just to give a very recent example,
01:32:18I think just a couple of days ago,
01:32:20there was a new study published,
01:32:23which I retweeted onto my timeline, which basically shows,
01:32:26so initially there was the belief that heritability
01:32:30of lifespan is between 20 and 25%.
01:32:34And this new study has found that it's actually closer to 50%.
01:32:39And this is a pretty important,
01:32:40this is obviously a pretty important finding
01:32:42because this is the heritability of your lifespan,
01:32:44how long you're gonna live.
01:32:46And so there's been a massive underestimation of lifespan
01:32:50in terms of the heritability of it.
01:32:52And I think this is not fully explained
01:32:54by the Wilson effect,
01:32:55but I think the Wilson effect is a contributor to this.
01:32:58And it's basically what it is is because studies tend
01:33:01to be quite short term,
01:33:02genetics studies tend to be quite short term.
01:33:04So they will tend to,
01:33:05obviously it's very hard to track a human being
01:33:08throughout their entire life.
01:33:10So usually longitudinal studies in genetics
01:33:13will tend to sort of follow people for a few years.
01:33:16So usually three, three years, five years,
01:33:19and that's not enough time to really understand
01:33:22the effects of these genes
01:33:24because a lot of these genes only become apparent
01:33:27later in your life.
01:33:28People tend to sort of,
01:33:31there's a kind of,
01:33:33what happens is that there's a masking effect.
01:33:36So early in your life,
01:33:37the effects of genes are masked by your upbringing,
01:33:40by your environment.
01:33:42So for example,
01:33:43if you are genetically predisposed to love reading,
01:33:47but in your life,
01:33:49your parents never buy you any books
01:33:51and instead they buy your PlayStation, right?
01:33:54You're gonna spend your childhood playing PlayStation
01:33:57instead of reading books,
01:33:57which is what you really love to do.
01:33:59It's only when you get older
01:34:01that you're able to follow your own natural inclinations,
01:34:04which are books.
01:34:05And so it's only when you're older
01:34:07that you have the power to buy books
01:34:09and therefore it's only when you're older
01:34:10that your genetic predisposition to books becomes apparent.
01:34:15And so this is a very simple example,
01:34:17but this is very common I think now in a lot of studies
01:34:20where there's a lot of reassessment that needs to be done
01:34:24due to these studies being so short term.
01:34:27We really need to study people
01:34:29at different stages of their life.
01:34:30We need to study them when they're children,
01:34:32we need to study them when they're adults,
01:34:33and we need to study them when they're elderly
01:34:35in order to actually have a good understanding
01:34:37of the influence of genes versus environment.
01:34:40- I saw there was a line from you, an Emerson one.
01:34:44"People do not seem to realize that their opinion of the world
01:34:47"is also a confession of their character."
01:34:49And Dylan O'Sullivan,
01:34:51that I know we're both fucking huge fans of.
01:34:53- Yeah, he's great, yeah.
01:34:54- He's so good, dude.
01:34:57He says, "Nothing gives you a clearer look into someone
01:35:00"than how they misinterpret things.
01:35:03"Every misinterpretation is a confession."
01:35:05And it feels like Emerson and Dylan
01:35:08are kind of agreeing with each other here.
01:35:09Their opinion of the world is a confession of their character
01:35:12and their misinterpretation of the world
01:35:14is also a confession.
01:35:16- Yeah, so to give you another quote from Naval,
01:35:20I think he said something like, "It's almost always possible
01:35:25"to be both honest and optimistic."
01:35:28So what I find is that if you are optimistic
01:35:34is not because you're deluded necessarily.
01:35:36It's often just because of your personality,
01:35:38because you choose to see the good
01:35:40rather than choosing to see the bad.
01:35:42It's often just a choice.
01:35:43It is literally just often a choice.
01:35:45It's something that has really sort of become
01:35:49an important force in my life now.
01:35:51This understanding that I can actually choose
01:35:53how I perceive things.
01:35:55I can choose whether I see things as a good or a bad thing,
01:35:58depending on the facts that I select
01:36:00and the way that I interpret them.
01:36:02And I'm aware that, yeah, okay,
01:36:03this often requires me to ignore certain things,
01:36:06but we're always ignoring things anyway.
01:36:08So it's not like I'm doing anything wrong here.
01:36:11Attention is selective.
01:36:12Attention is like empathy.
01:36:13It's a spotlight.
01:36:14You shine it on some things and by doing so,
01:36:16you cast everything else in darkness.
01:36:18And so when you are pessimistic,
01:36:20this is not a sign that you see reality more clearly
01:36:22as a lot of pessimists like to believe.
01:36:24It's actually a sign that you're choosing
01:36:26to shine your spotlight on shit rather than on diamonds,
01:36:30to put it simply.
01:36:32You have a choice where you shine your spotlight.
01:36:35And ultimately it's a case of what are you looking at?
01:36:38What are you perceiving?
01:36:39When you see something, what details are you picking out?
01:36:42And this is why when I see miserable people now,
01:36:45I don't see realists.
01:36:47I just see miserable people.
01:36:49I see people who are unhappy inside
01:36:52who are essentially externalizing their unhappiness
01:36:55by choosing to see the absolute worst in everything.
01:36:59And this is why I don't have much tolerance now
01:37:01for people who just keep complaining about things
01:37:04because to me, that's just a way
01:37:07to dig your hole deeper, basically.
01:37:09You're just making life worse for yourself
01:37:11by choosing to see the worst.
01:37:12But there's no solutions in complaining.
01:37:15If you just keep complaining,
01:37:16all you're doing is you're convincing yourself
01:37:18that the world is bad.
01:37:19And the world doesn't need to be bad.
01:37:21You don't need to lie to see the good.
01:37:23- But surely in some situations, things are bad.
01:37:26Is it not fair to accurately represent that and reflect it
01:37:29so that maybe people try to change the thing that's bad
01:37:33and shouldn't be bad?
01:37:34- No, no, you should always recognize
01:37:36that things can be improved, always.
01:37:37Yeah, absolutely.
01:37:38But this doesn't mean that you should focus on the bad
01:37:40and have the bad as the only thing to focus on.
01:37:43There's always two sides to the story.
01:37:45So the way I look at it is yes,
01:37:47you should always be cognizant of problems.
01:37:52I'm not saying that you should not see problems.
01:37:54You should choose not to see problems.
01:37:55You should see the problems.
01:37:57But instead of focusing on complaining about them,
01:37:59you should try to focus on solutions instead.
01:38:02What can I do rather than make this better?
01:38:04So this actually fits in with another of my ideas.
01:38:07So there's a concept called the Stockdale paradox.
01:38:10And the Stockdale paradox is quite an interesting one
01:38:12because it's basically taken from a guy
01:38:16called James Stockdale.
01:38:18He was an admiral, right?
01:38:19And he survived nearly eight years of torture and isolation
01:38:22in the Hanoi Hilton, basically, which was so-called
01:38:25because it was one of the most brutal camps
01:38:27in North Vietnam during the Vietnam War.
01:38:30He was basically a POW for quite a long time.
01:38:33Yeah, so for eight years.
01:38:33And so basically, so what he observed while he was there
01:38:38was that there were people who were optimists
01:38:41and there were people who were pessimists.
01:38:43And both groups ended up suffering hard.
01:38:47And many of them died very early.
01:38:49So the optimists would basically believe
01:38:52that they were gonna be released from the jail by Christmas.
01:38:55And then when Christmas didn't come, it would be Easter.
01:38:57And then Easter didn't come.
01:38:58So they would keep hoping.
01:38:59And eventually their hope just ran out
01:39:00and they just kind of gave up on life.
01:39:02And some of them, they just lost the will to live
01:39:05because they had hoped and their hopes had been destroyed.
01:39:08But then on the other hand, there were the pessimists
01:39:10who were people who just kind of believed
01:39:12that their station was completely irredeemable
01:39:16and there was no hope in the first place.
01:39:18So obviously they had no motivation to improve.
01:39:21What Stockdale found was what got him through the eight years
01:39:25was not by being an optimist, not by being a pessimist,
01:39:30but actually by practicing a kind of optimistic pessimism.
01:39:35And this was essentially, so what it was is that basically
01:39:39the key to achieving this kind of paradoxical state of mind
01:39:43is to accept that bad outcomes are indeed a real possibility,
01:39:47but rather than let that possibility crush your hopes,
01:39:50you can develop hope in your ability
01:39:52to deal with those problems by preparing for them.
01:39:55So by acknowledging and confronting
01:39:57the harshest potential outcomes,
01:39:59you make them less of a problem
01:40:01and less of a reason for negativity.
01:40:03So what I'm saying is basically healthy optimism
01:40:08arises through a kind of practical pessimism.
01:40:10It's not the blind idealism
01:40:12that everything is always gonna turn out fine,
01:40:14but rather the self-belief that you can deal with things
01:40:17no matter how they turn out.
01:40:19And that's essentially what confidence is.
01:40:21Confidence is not the belief
01:40:22that everything is gonna be all right.
01:40:24Confidence is the belief
01:40:25that you will be able to handle with things
01:40:27even if they're not okay, right?
01:40:30So you'll always be able to deal with the eventualities.
01:40:33And the way that you do that
01:40:34is by acknowledging the worst case scenario,
01:40:37but preparing for any scenario, essentially.
01:40:40So you don't necessarily have to be pessimistic.
01:40:43You don't have to be optimistic.
01:40:44You fuse the two.
01:40:45So this is obviously, this is a bit separate
01:40:46from the idea of seeing the beauty in things,
01:40:49but this is obviously a very healthy attitude to have
01:40:52with regards to just half glass, half full,
01:40:57or glass half empty.
01:40:58Just understand that the glass is half, right?
01:41:02That's it.
01:41:03It doesn't need to be half full.
01:41:04It doesn't need to be half empty.
01:41:05It's just half.
01:41:06- Well, George's line from the agency book
01:41:10is some people look at the glass and see it as half full.
01:41:13Some look at the glass and see it as half empty.
01:41:16What you should do is realize that you are the tap,
01:41:19and that's his line around agency,
01:41:22which is wherever this is, you can actually pour into it.
01:41:26Yeah, the Stockdale thing's interesting
01:41:31because I can see how people preparing
01:41:36for the bad would quite easily cause them
01:41:40to tumble down the rabbit hole of ruminating about it
01:41:42and worrying about it and woe is me and concept creep.
01:41:45And now I've got a pathology
01:41:46and I've got multiple personality disorder.
01:41:49That is the genesis of it.
01:41:52- Ultimately, it comes down to,
01:41:55it ultimately comes down to how you interpret it, right?
01:42:00So there is, yes, you could just go down this rabbit hole
01:42:04where you're just constantly thinking the worst case scenario
01:42:06but that's only gonna happen if you haven't found a solution.
01:42:10Yeah, if you have a solution,
01:42:12if you have developed a solution to the worst case scenario,
01:42:14then it's no longer gonna really dwell on your mind
01:42:17because you already have the solution.
01:42:19And that's ultimately what I do.
01:42:20If I was to say, come on this podcast
01:42:24and I would have the worst case scenario
01:42:26where I would say something,
01:42:29let's say I said the N word or something like that.
01:42:32If you're somebody who is really anxious,
01:42:35you'd be worrying about something like that so long.
01:42:38You'd be like, oh my God, what if I say the wrong thing?
01:42:41That would just cause you to be a nervous wreck
01:42:42and it would probably just make for a very bad episode.
01:42:45But if you have a solution,
01:42:47if you actually have trained yourself
01:42:50to not engage in these kinds of intrusive thoughts
01:42:53that might cause you to say those words
01:42:55or if you have a way to sort of style it out,
01:42:58then it's not gonna be a problem.
01:43:01It's the same with anything.
01:43:03Anxiety is really a result of you not having a solution
01:43:08to the worst case scenario.
01:43:10But as long as you have that solution,
01:43:11you're not gonna have the...
01:43:12I mean, you might still have anxiety
01:43:14if you're a neurotic person.
01:43:17But the thing is you can--
01:43:18- Well, you're not gonna have any less
01:43:20if you've got a solution.
01:43:21And what's that line about anxiety hates a moving target,
01:43:24action is the antidote to anxiety.
01:43:26- Yeah, that's it.
01:43:28- Yep, yep, yep.
01:43:29Look, Gwenda, dude, you're a legend.
01:43:31I appreciate you coming on, this always rules.
01:43:33It's one of my favorite episodes.
01:43:34Where should people go to check out all of the stuff
01:43:37that you've got going on?
01:43:38- Yeah, so main place is my blog,
01:43:40which is just gwenda.blog.
01:43:42And you can also find me on Twitter @g_s_bogle.
01:43:47Or just type my name into Google
01:43:49and I'm sure it will come up, yeah.
01:43:51- Heck yeah. - Yeah, and cheers.
01:43:53Been a pleasure, yeah, thank you.
01:43:54- It's always a good one.
01:43:56Keep writing 'cause we got more to talk about.
01:43:58- Oh yeah, yeah.
01:43:59Congratulations, you made it to the end of an episode.
01:44:03Your brain has not been completely destroyed
01:44:04by the internet just yet.
01:44:06Here's another one that you should watch.
01:44:09Go on.