00:00:00Speaking of poly market poly market took down the will and nuclear war break out this you're betting market
00:00:06Because there was way too much trading volume happening around what's going on in Iran. Oh, wow. What is a poly market?
00:00:1214 years
00:00:1868 I don't know. I don't know what poly market is
00:00:21Do you want to describe it Sean? I don't even know how to fucking say what it is
00:00:26Yeah, it's basically a casino for everything so you can go bet that sounds dangerous. They call it a prediction market
00:00:31It's kind of like the a Olli vs. Manet's like situation
00:00:34So it's like Oh sports betting not legal poly market betting on a sport event
00:00:39Legal somehow and so basically you can go so you can bet on who's gonna become president. You can bet on who's going to
00:00:46Win this this game this weekend, but you can also bet on anything like who's gonna win or like, you know
00:00:52Will there be a strike will this guy be the president in a month?
00:00:54And so you can bet on basically any outcome and the criticism of prediction markets early on was they become assassination markets
00:01:02Because you create this huge incentive to just say
00:01:05Will this guy be around and if I want money it ends up becoming a bounty. This is becoming a Deadpool
00:01:11Yeah, exactly. So that's always been the criticism and it's like oh, there's plenty of other good things about it. Like
00:01:16If you want to know the truth about how likely is something to happen if you go to the New York Times or any like any
00:01:23Just traditional news outlet, you know
00:01:25The incentive of the writer is to write a juicy headline and then maybe have they have their opinion
00:01:30But poly market is basically only people with skin in the game betting on an outcome
00:01:34So if you're wrong consistently you will lose money if you're right consistently, you'll have a bigger bankroll on poly market
00:01:39So over time it becomes the closest thing to like accurate predictions. Did they get the election right in 24?
00:01:45Yep, today and there's a cash payout for this like you're actually gambling. It's just gambling but it's gambling with a graph
00:01:52It's an exchange. It's very important. It's gambling but there's a graph on it, which makes it look a lot more like a market
00:01:57Yeah, yeah, what's your kind of take on it? Do you think how do you think it's gonna play out over the next few years?
00:02:03Unstoppable, like I think it's gonna be people love gambling people love predicting things people need the information
00:02:09And it is growing like crazy right now. I don't know if you saw there's actually a funny story
00:02:14I think I have it on my sheet if you don't pull it up
00:02:16But there was this man and woman apparently getting divorced. This might be a fake news AI by the way
00:02:21It's like the story is almost too good to be true
00:02:22but they're they're getting divorced the man worked part-time in a warehouse, but suddenly started driving like a BMW and
00:02:28the wife was like
00:02:30Can you she asked her lawyer like can you just the other way to check like how could he afford this car?
00:02:35and basically he did like a
00:02:37Forensic audit and subpoena like kind of subpoenaed his digital wallets and they basically found that this guy had made three million dollars
00:02:44over the last year with a pretty much hundred percent hit rate on his poly market bets and what he had realized there and so
00:02:51She was now gonna be entitled to three million a half of three million dollars
00:02:54But the guy fighting it in the courtroom was like, well, this is not an asset. It's a strategy
00:02:59I'm running a strategy that's allowing me to win. So the judge was like, okay, what's your strategy and he basically was like
00:03:05well, I just realized that the Las Vegas sportsbooks would update and
00:03:09The market I was betting on wasn't updating fast enough
00:03:13And so I would just bet the new odds even if the thing didn't happen
00:03:17it was gonna always match the like new odds and so he's like I was just arbitraging that and so he had like they
00:03:23Audited his bets and it was just all green basically
00:03:25And so there's a lot of people that have found these little arbitrages like people are sending people to let's say a sporting event
00:03:31Because they can relay what happened faster than the broadcast and faster than the like the database update
00:03:37This was happening in Asia with soccer matches. Yeah, I swear this was happening there and someone was going over and sending it back
00:03:43Yeah, it's like if you ever read flash boys
00:03:44There was like a whole like quant trading thing where if they put your server close to the New York Stock Exchange server
00:03:50You could get your trade in before the guy who was doing it through ascent like a normal server
00:03:55And they're like putting fiber through mountains to like shave off pennies off of every trade essentially
00:04:00Well, so do gambling laws apply then universally to poly market when it came out. It's a gambling affiliate
00:04:05So like we can't do it in Georgia. There's basically a loophole. So
00:04:07Prediction markets are not considered gambling there. They're like commodities contracts
00:04:12So it's like it's like betting on the future price of like soybeans
00:04:16So they're they're they're regulated by the same people who do like the commodities markets. And so that's how they've been able to get around this
00:04:23Everything everything at world events. There is no so much smaller than world events
00:04:28Like what color is the Gatorade going to be that gets dunked over the head of the coach at the Super Bowl?
00:04:37Anything and we're calling this it's called poly market and it's its market is this is like when someone says what do you do for?
00:04:43Work and they go. I'm a sanitation engineer. He's a fucking trash guy
00:04:46Every bit of life essentially becomes insider trading if if you take it further enough Wow
00:04:55During the halftime show they were like, oh, is he gonna play this song? Well, guess what?
00:05:00There's like 400 backup dancers
00:05:02And so it was very they're getting caught because it's like suddenly this wallet comes out puts 32 grand on this one obscure market
00:05:08And it's like guess what? He was a backup
00:05:09Did you see the guy who stood outside of the stadium in the days preceding it time?
00:05:16Oh, yeah
00:05:16How long the national anthem national anthem was going to be and it was out there with a stopwatch
00:05:23he videoed it himself with a side cuz they're rehearsing rehearsing rehearsing and then
00:05:27Puts the bed on and wins a fucking shit ton of money because he knew exactly that was legal because he was outside
00:05:32It was public information and he's one of those
00:05:35radio telescope listening device things like tuning in and
00:05:40Sure enough. We need a close-up of just his face during this discussion the whole discussion
00:05:45We take a picture in picture cam of his face. Okay, so
00:05:47Okay, so poly market yeah, did you guys see the Super Bowl streaker guy his his YouTube channel
00:05:55No, he put meta Ray Bans on right? He did. Yes
00:05:58So this guy this video is incredible. I don't watch many YouTube videos, but I watch all 30 minutes of this video
00:06:05Hang on how many he's been training?
00:06:08No, no, it's so funny though the length so so this guy did it before and he's like I'm gonna do it again 23 days
00:06:17And this is basically a training montage of like a bank heist, but it's just streaking at the Super Bowl Wow
00:06:23So he's doing agility drills and he shows pictures of the security cars, which you know
00:06:26They look like event security and he's like you think they could stop me as he's doing like a shuttle drill
00:06:30Oh, this is a brilliant creating. Oh, this is like he's training for the combine. Yeah, exactly
00:06:34and so he and then if you skip forward he's like on seat geek looking at the like 3d images of which seat is
00:06:40Optimal to jump up like how high is the rail? How deep is the fall and then he has a decoy
00:06:46So he has his friend do it with him the friend jumps first
00:06:49Everybody goes to tackle him and then he jumps second and gets a free run
00:06:53This is the run. That's the friend. Oh
00:06:56So then he goes second while there
00:06:59Soldier and then this guy you think you can stop me shaking big and then he's up in the meds get this like Madden, right?
00:07:09in the metas
00:07:12By an actual player
00:07:18That's unreal. What's the penalty for something like that a ticket cuz it's a misdemeanor. No, he goes to jail
00:07:22So he goes to jail for the night, but he knew that cuz it happened last year
00:07:25So he's like I gotta remember to piss before I gotta eat because I don't want it
00:07:28You know like he's like planning for his jail visit and at the end
00:07:31He basically responds like it's GTA cuz the footage comes back when he's leaving the jail
00:07:36and all of this was to promote his like
00:07:40Stock tips platform or something, but he got like over a million views on this could have bet on yourself on poly market
00:07:47He did I did he did. Yeah. He knew what the fine was and then he bet on himself
00:07:51Yeah, and he did it odds of a streaker at the Super Bowl
00:07:54He didn't want to like confirm it but they're like pretty sure him and his friends made a crazy bag off this
00:07:58Isn't that crazy? Isn't it? Like just insane what YouTube will it's like show me your incentive. I'll show you your outcome
00:08:04It's like what you did was basically like do the craziest shit
00:08:07Yeah, so then people do exactly the craziest shot that he trained for is unreal
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