Transcript
00:00:00What do you think is the likely outcome of the Iran war?
00:00:02It doesn't end.
00:00:04What's going to happen is eventually the Ukraine war and the Iran war will merge.
00:00:08Already we're seeing that after Zelensky bombed an Iranian cargo ship in the Caspian Sea.
00:00:15And Zelensky was very proud of this.
00:00:16You see, I can do this for the Americans.
00:00:21So it is very likely that all the world powers are brought in.
00:00:25China is brought into the war.
00:00:27Russia is brought into the war.
00:00:29It sounds a lot like the World War III that we said wasn't going to happen at the top of this episode.
00:00:33Except it's something world.
00:00:35I didn't say that.
00:00:36Did I say that?
00:00:37No, no.
00:00:37He actually thinks World War III is kind of coming quickly.
00:00:42Okay.
00:00:42Here's where I would...
00:00:44So I see the trends that Zhang is saying.
00:00:46I don't want to disagree with the trends.
00:00:48I think January of this year is going to be a focal point moment.
00:00:53January of next year.
00:00:54Of next year.
00:00:54I mean, January 2027 will be a focal point moment
00:00:58where all the actors, the United States, China, Iran, have a chance to reset.
00:01:05Now, where they go, here's what I...
00:01:07But why January?
00:01:09Go back to what I just said, which is Iran has a strategy for the U.S. midterms.
00:01:14It sees the oil inventories running down.
00:01:17It sees its period of maximum pressure.
00:01:19The opportunity here is to destroy Trump's presidency politically.
00:01:27Not to knock him out of office, but so that he is the lamest of lame ducks.
00:01:32Well, will that happen or not?
00:01:34We'll know quite a bit in the first week in January.
00:01:38Now, we won't necessarily know 100%, but we'll know a lot of information.
00:01:43And I believe what's going to happen is once we get to the first week in January, everybody
00:01:49will be recalibrating for a post-Trump world or a future Trump world.
00:01:56How do you feel about that?
00:01:58Look, the problem is we're trying to see this from an economic glance.
00:02:02And the reason why the MOU fell apart is Israel refused to abide by the terms.
00:02:08One of the major terms of the MOU signed between the United States and Iran is that all terms,
00:02:14all peace terms that apply to Iran would also apply to Iran's allies, especially Hezbollah
00:02:20in Lebanon.
00:02:21And that required Israel to withdraw its forces from southern Lebanon.
00:02:26Israel refused to do so, and Israel has only accelerated its attacks on Hezbollah.
00:02:32So we think that it's entirely between the United States and Iran, but Israel has a lot of options.
00:02:43And right now, for a reason, we can discuss this, Israel is choosing to escalate the war.
00:02:49And also, the Hufis have been brought in.
00:02:52And the thing about the Hufis is that they are religious fanatics.
00:02:56They are very poor people.
00:02:57They live in mountains, and they're not afraid to die.
00:03:01And right now, they're fighting this war against Saudi Arabia.
00:03:04So Saudi Arabia, Arabical facilities are being hit.
00:03:07The other strait in the Middle East, the Bab-el-Mandad Strait, has been closed by the Houthis.
00:03:14So we're seeing this war escalate.
00:03:17And again, we're trying to see this from an economic glance.
00:03:19But if you look at what the Hufis are doing, if you look at what the IRGC and the Israelis are doing,
00:03:24I would say this is almost like a religious war.
00:03:27It's a crusade.
00:03:27It's an ethnological war.
00:03:29There's another dimension we have to see.
00:03:31The alliance between Saudi Arabia, Turkey, and Pakistan.
00:03:39Now, if you take a look at a map, or all around them, these countries, Saudi Arabia has no use for Iran.
00:03:48The Turks are seeking to evolve themselves into a major point, scaring the Israelis to death.
00:03:56And Pakistan itself is evolving dramatically in this war into a very sophisticated state.
00:04:03So when you take a look at the situation in Iran, let's not just talk about the bombing and everything,
00:04:08but the geopolitical development.
00:04:10Now, today there was a story, I don't know if it's true or not, that Iran is going to be asked to join this coalition.
00:04:18In other words, submit.
00:04:19Whether they do it or not, whether this is an actual offer, I have no idea.
00:04:23But it was there.
00:04:25But this created a new structure in the Middle East, this alliance.
00:04:30A very different one, with a very powerful country.
00:04:33Israel is terrified of Turkey, because they know they do it.
00:04:40No, it's not.
00:04:41It just bombed Turkish officials in Syria.
00:04:46Yes, and that was part of it, because this is a country they cannot defeat.
00:04:52They've only fought countries along their borders, and they were able for, since the founding of Israel, to hold those borders.
00:05:01The Turkish army is three times as large as the Israeli army.
00:05:08And while I don't believe that the Turks really have any desire to fight them, these Israeli, shall we say, society is built around a commitment to the belief that they're going to try to destroy us.
00:05:26There is a built-time, so when this ends, you know, this problem ends a little bit.
00:05:34They bomb Syria.
00:05:35They then tell the American ambassador they didn't bomb Syria.
00:05:42Then they say, Turkey is our greatest fear.
00:05:47built into Israel by history is a paranoia.
00:05:54Well, who is my greatest enemy?
00:05:56I have one.
00:05:57Now they're facing, for the first time, an enemy that they cannot, because of both geography and military capability, defeat.
00:06:06All right?
00:06:07Now, when Lundset was asked what to do after the Battle of Bulge, he said, make peace, you fools.
00:06:15And this is the situation that Israel is in.
00:06:19It's an internal crisis.
00:06:20It has reached a point where its military capability is not enough.
00:06:24So the reason I think the midterms are a decisive threshold, not just a minor threshold, is it will determine whether the Democrats control Congress.
00:06:38If the Democrats control Congress, which is still an if, but we'll know in January, there is going to be two things that are going to happen.
00:06:46And we see this in the Democratic policies already.
00:06:50Number one is there'll be tremendous pressure to literally end the Iran War.
00:06:55So we saw this in 1974 by Congress.
00:06:57Congress has not played much of a role in foreign policy.
00:07:00The last time it got involved was '74 with Vietnam to truly constrain the executive.
00:07:06There'll be a battle about this, of course, but number one is the Democrats wanting to shut down this.
00:07:12And that would stop it from becoming a forever war, which one more, one more point and then I'll let you.
00:07:16The second point is they're going to want to constrain Israel.
00:07:20There's a huge push in the Democratic Party to shut down all of the, look at all the Democrats that are, that were pro-Israel that are losing and they're losing because there's a huge movement inside of the Democratic Party to zero out the budgets to Israel.
00:07:41And that means that come January, Israel's going to have to calibrate Iran, others are going to calibrate based on the results of whether the Democrats control Congress.
00:07:53Now, we don't know whether the Democrats will control Congress, but what I'm saying is it's too soon to truly project out beyond January because come January, we'll know, are we in a forever war?
00:08:05Now, and by the way, if the Democrats, even though they control Congress, support the war, oh yeah, we're in a forever war.
00:08:12So which major Democratic leader has come out against the Warrens and which leader has said we must end this war right now?
00:08:21Which, which leader?
00:08:22Oh, geez, almost all of them.
00:08:23I mean, just watch CNN.
00:08:25They come on all the time.
00:08:26So what they are, if you, if you listen, Zhang, to the Democrat, no, well, if you listen to the Democratic leaders, this has just been a mantra to end the Vietnam War.
00:08:36I'm sorry, to end the Iran War.
00:08:38And the real question is going to be, Zhang, whether or not once they control, will they take responsibility for that?
00:08:47Because right now it's easy to run against the Iran War because gas prices going up, you know, bad mistakes by the Trump administration, which they hate, they hate anyway.
00:09:00Where it will become difficult will be once the Democrats assume power, because if it turns out that the Democrats stop the war and Iran gets a nuclear weapon, think about that for the Democratic Party.
00:09:14That could bring the Republicans right back in in 2028.
00:09:18So I think these are the real issues.
00:09:21And that's why it's about not just what you claim you're going to do, but what you do when you're in power.
00:09:26So, so I must have missed the news, but can you name me one major Democratic leader with this choice?
00:09:31Jeffries was just on CNN, I think it was three days ago, arguing that the war should end now.
00:09:37I just listened to the woman who just ran, the progressive who just won the Senate for the Senate seat in the primary here on Florida.
00:09:45I was just on a podcast with her on the Joy Reid show just two days ago, talking about this issue.
00:09:52And she was hugely against the, against the war and thought it was a total mistake and it should end.
00:09:59So, I mean, those are at least two people right there.
00:10:02So, so how can Jeffrey say that if the Democrats were to win the House in November, they would immediately try to restrict Trump's war powers and try to...
00:10:13I haven't said anybody has gone that far.
00:10:16That's the next step.
00:10:18That's the real issue here.
00:10:20And that's what I'm saying is you won't be able to know whether they'll do it until they're in power, Zhang.
00:10:25And if they're in power and they support the war for fear that they will lose their political viability, as Hillary Clinton was worried about with the Iraq war, then this will...
00:10:36That's how you got a forever war.
00:10:37You get both parties in favor of the war because neither one will stop it.
00:10:42Now you have a forever war.
00:10:43But in this particular case, both the Republicans opposed the war because that's one of the bases on which you won the election was not to get into these forever wars.
00:10:56The Democrats also are doing it.
00:10:58When you take a look at the poll numbers on this war, they're enormously unpopular.
00:11:04Congress tends to do what's popular and ending the war is popular, not only in the Democrats, but with the Republicans.
00:11:11This is the fundamental difference that I've never seen, which is that his own party feels betrayed.
00:11:18So I think there's one of the things I think the Iranians are saying, let's wait.
00:11:25Let's wait to see if they come apart.
00:11:27In the same way I'm talking about Iran having internal problems, we have enormous internal problems.
00:11:33I'm seeing the Iranians trying to put this off as long as possible and then try to make a deal in September or October before the elections.
00:11:46A quick aside, you've probably heard me talk about Element before, and that's because I've started every single morning the same way for the last five years now, which is a cold glass of water with Element in it.
00:11:54Element is an electrolyte drink mix with everything that you need and nothing that you don't.
00:11:57It's a science-backed electrolyte ratio of sodium, potassium, and magnesium.
00:12:01No sugar, no coloring, no artificial ingredients.
00:12:04It reduces muscle cramps and fatigue, supports brain function, and helps to regulate your appetite throughout the day.
00:12:09I genuinely notice the difference when I take it versus when I don't, which is why I don't shut up about it and also why it's used by everyone.
00:12:16From Dr. Andrew Huberman to Olympic athletes and FBI sniper teams, the good sniper teams, not the bad ones.
00:12:23Also, they have no questions asked for refund policy.
00:12:25So if you don't like it for any reason, they'll just give you your money back.
00:12:28Plus, they offer free shipping in the U.S.
00:12:30Right now, you can get a free sample pack of Element's most popular flavors with your first purchase by going to the link in the description below.
00:12:36You're heading to drinklmnt.com slash modernwisdom.
00:12:39That's drinklmnt.com slash modernwisdom.
00:12:44Thank you very much for tuning in.
00:12:46If you enjoyed that clip, you will love the full-length episode in all of its glory.
00:12:51Right here.
00:12:53Come on.
00:12:54Press it.
Community Posts
No posts yet. Be the first to write about this video!
Write about this video